Government expenditure & revenue Scotland 2024-25

3 Public Sector Expenditure

Introduction

This chapter provides detailed estimates of public sector expenditure for Scotland. Expenditure is shown by type of spend, using a presentation based on the UN’s Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG). Further information is provided in the Glossary in Annex D. Current and capital expenditure are shown separately.

The primary data sources used to estimate Scottish public sector expenditure in GERS are Scottish Government spending reported on the UK Government’s public spending system, OSCAR, and HM Treasury’s Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses (PESA)^[26] and the supporting Country and Regional Analysis (CRA).^[27]

Spending by the Scottish Government is provided directly by the Scottish Government Directorate for Financial Management. Scottish Local Government spending in all years is taken from HM Treasury’s PESA publication. Spending by other UK government departments spending is based on PESA for 2024-25 and on the CRA for earlier years. Further information on the methodology is set out in the expenditure methodology paper available at the link below.

Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

GERS continues to show some ongoing transactions between Scotland and the EU, although these have greatly reduced in size since the UK left the EU. These can be reported in a number of different ways, and are discussed in more detail later in the chapter.

GERS expenditure figures are presented on a National Accounts basis, an international reporting standard used by governments to ensure international comparability. This requires a number of accounting adjustments to be included in total expenditure. These are primarily symmetric adjustments that also form part of revenue, and therefore have little impact on the net fiscal balance. Further information is set out in Annex A.

Public Sector Expenditure

Total public sector expenditure for Scotland in 2024-25 is estimated to be £117.6 billion, with social protection the largest element of spend, accounting for slightly around 30% of total spend. Further information on social protection spending is provided in Table 3.5.

Spend has increased by 5.5% from 2023-24. Spend increased across most categories, with spending on social protection, the largest single category, grew by 7.9%, faster than the 5.3% growth in the UK. This will in part reflect spending associated with devolved social security programmes, including those with no UK equivalent, such as the Scottish Child Payment, and those which have replaced previous UK benefits, such as Adult Disability Payment. The Scottish Fiscal Commission has highlighted that spending on devolved social security in Scotland is growing faster than its equivalent in the UK, reflecting a range of factors including the introduction of new benefits and greater take up of devolved benefits as they replace those previously available.

Although spending increased in most areas, there has been a fall in spending on Public and Common Services, which reflects a reduction in spending associated with the EU Withdrawal Agreement. Spending on reserved public sector debt interest has also continued to fall, as inflation has fallen back from the record highs recorded during 2022-23. Table 3.1 shows a breakdown of spending by category.

Table 3.2 shows the split of total expenditure between current and capital for Scotland.

Table 3.3 below shows estimates of Scottish and UK public sector expenditure as a share of GDP. This provides an illustration of the relative size of public spending between countries and over time. It is not an estimate of the contribution of public spending to the economy as much of this spending consists of transfers from government to individuals and businesses. Excluding North Sea GDP, public sector spending as a share of GDP has remained broadly unchanged at around 55% in 2024-25, although it remains around 5 percentage points higher than before the pandemic.

Table 3.4 shows total public sector expenditure per person for Scotland and the UK. The relative gap between Scottish and UK spending per person increased in 2024‑25, with spend per person 14.4% points higher. This reflects stronger public spending growth in Scotland.

As noted previously, water and sewerage services are provided by the public sector in Scotland, but by the private sector in England and Wales, leading to relatively higher spending in Scotland. This explains slightly less than one percentage point of the difference in spend.

Tables 3.6 and 3.7 show current, capital, and total expenditure for Scotland and the UK respectively.

Social protection spending in Scotland

Social protection spending is the largest single spending line in GERS, and covers a range of different spend types.

The largest spending element within social protection is expenditure on the state pension by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). This is followed by DWP’s spending on other social security such as universal credit disability and incapacity related benefits, and housing benefit. Tax credits and child benefit are part of HMRC spending. Scottish Government social security spend includes the Scottish Welfare Fund, Council Tax Reduction Scheme, and Scottish Government expenditure on Discretionary Housing Payments, all of which are administered by Local Authorities. From 2018-19, it also includes spending on newly devolved social security, as set out in Chapter 4.

Some UK social security expenditure, mostly associated with the state pension, is paid to non-UK residents. Scotland is allocated a population share of this expenditure in GERS.

Other social protection spending consists primarily of Local Authority expenditure on social care to families and children.

A more detailed breakdown of social security spending is published by DWP, available at the link below.

Benefit expenditure and caseload tables - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Spending by different parts of the Public Sector

Table 3.8 below provides a breakdown of devolved expenditure by the Scottish Government, Scottish local government and public corporations, and reserved expenditure by other UK government bodies.

Scotland’s Notional Contributions to the European Union Budget

While a member of the European Union (EU), the UK contributed to the EU budget and received funding from the EU via a number of programmes. Although the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, it continued to make payments to, and receive funding from, the EU in 2020-21 under transitional arrangements. These transactions largely ended in 2021-22.

Details of how the ongoing EU Transactions are calculated are provided in GERS 2022-23.

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2022-23 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

Private Finance Initiative and Non-Profit Distributing Financing support for Public Private Partnerships (PPPs)

Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are long-term contracts for services that include the provision of associated facilities or properties. Under the contract, the private sector is generally responsible for various roles, including designing and constructing a building or facility, and maintaining and servicing it throughout the contract term. The public sector retains accountability for the main public services. The private sector is responsible for financing the project up front and only receives payment from the public sector once construction has been completed and the services have commenced. These payments are reflected in the GERS expenditure figures, but typically broader payments associated with these schemes, such as the upfront capital investment, is not included, although it will be reflected in the total unitary charge payments over the lifetime of the scheme.

Previous GERS publications have provided a breakdown of payments related to PPPs in Scotland.

Supporting documents - Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2021-22 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)