Government expenditure & revenue Scotland 2024-25

B Revisions

This section presents revisions from the previous GERS 2022-23 publication.

Revisions to Non-North Sea Revenue Estimates from GERS 2023-24

Table B.1 summarises the revisions in this edition of GERS to total non-North Sea revenue. Revisions to Scottish estimates can stem from three sources: revisions to UK totals; revisions to apportionment data; and updated apportionment methodologies. Revisions to UK totals for previous years will be larger than usual due to the uncertainty around measuring the public finances during the coronavirus pandemic.

There are a number of revisions to UK revenue totals from GERS 2023-24, with overall UK non-North Sea revenue for 2023-24 revised by 0.3%. The main revisions relate to corporation tax.

Further detail on all these revisions is available from the UK Public Sector Finances.^[31]

Scottish revisions broadly reflect these UK revisions. The main differences relates to national insurance contributions, VAT, inheritance tax, and tobacco duties. In all cases these reflect provisional apportionments being replaced with the latest data. Further details are available in the methodology note. Overall, Scottish revenue has been revised up by 0.7%.

A time series of revisions is available in the accompanying spreadsheets online.

Revisions to North Sea Revenue Estimates from GERS 2023-24

Table B.3 summarises the revisions to North Sea revenues in this edition of GERS by comparing the estimates contained in this report with last year’s publication. Revenue has been revised up in 2023-24, reflecting upward revisions to both the UK total and the Scottish share, with Scotland’s share of North Sea corporation tax revised up 89%.

Revisions to Expenditure Estimates from GERS 2023-24

Table B.4 sets out the changes in estimates of public expenditure in Scotland and the UK between this report and GERS 2023-24. These reflect revisions to Scottish Government and Scottish local government spending data, revisions to UK spending totals, and revisions to the data sources used to apportion expenditure to Scotland. Revisions to public expenditure that can be traced to changes to the total expenditure on services (TES) measure are specified separately.

Overall, Scottish spend in 2023-24 has been revised up by £196 million, or 0.2%. This reflects upward revisions to spending on education and debt interest being offset by down revisions to health and social protection. The revisions to education spending are related to Scottish local government spend and reflect the move from provisional to final outturn, and debt interest reflect revisions UK Government debt interest spending.

The downward revisions health and social protection reflect internal estimates Other UK Government spending in these areas have being replaced by estimates from HM Treasury’s CRA publication.

The table below shows the revisions to spend in 2023-24 by function, and by Scottish Government, Scottish local government, Scottish public corporations, and Other UK government bodies.

Notes: SG: Scottish Government. LG: Local Government. PC: Public Corporations. UKG: UK Government.

Revisions to Estimates of Capital Consumption

Table B.6 sets out the changes to estimates of capital consumption in Scotland and the UK between this report and the previous publication of GERS. Capital consumption, which represents the capital stock consumed to provide services within the year, is included alongside current expenditure when calculating the current budget balance. It does not affect the estimate of the net fiscal balance. Note that these figures do not match the figures for capital consumption shown in Table A.8, as the table below includes capital consumption associated with public corporations, which is not included in accounting adjustments.

Unlike for public corporations’ expenditure and operating surplus, detailed capital consumption data are not available on a public corporation basis from the ONS, as they are not separately identified within its perpetual inventory model.

Revisions to Fiscal Aggregates

Table B.7 shows revisions to the current budget balance from the previous publication of GERS. The Scottish current budget deficit has increased in all years. This reflects the revisions to public sector interest expenditure discussed above.

Table B.8 shows revisions to the net fiscal balance from the previous publication of GERS. In general, these are similar to the revisions to the current budget balance for Scotland

In addition to revisions to the fiscal aggregates in cash terms, there are also changes to the fiscal aggregates expressed as a share of GDP due to revisions to GDP estimates. These are shown in Tables B.9 and B.10 for the current budget balance and the net fiscal balance respectively. In general, estimates of the fiscal aggregate have improved as a share of GDP for Scotland when including the North Sea, but remained the same when the North Sea is excluded. These revisions reflect the upward revision to the nominal value of offshore GDP. This reflects routine annual update to bring the value of GVA in line with the latest UK regional accounts.