Scotland's Climate Change Plan: 2026–2040
This Climate Change Plan (CCP) sets out the policies and proposals we will take forward to enable our carbon budgets to be met between 2026 and 2040.
Footnotes
1 The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 distinguishes between ‘policies’ and ‘proposals’. In the CCP we have described as policies where it is possible to clearly set out a specific action, scale, a lever of choice, an outcome and a timeline, and, thus, it is possible to set out clear delivery details and cost implications. We have described as proposals where it is possible to clearly set out an outcome and a timeline, and it is recognised action needs to take place, and generally these will have impact later in the plan period; consequently, more concrete detail on the precise policy levers and cost implications is more difficult to present.
2 Section 35(25) of the 2009 Act requires the Scottish Ministers to set out an assessment of the progress towards implementing proposals and policies in the immediately preceding plan. That plan is the most recent full Climate Change Plan laid before the Scottish Parliament in 2018, read together with the Climate Change Plan update published in 2020.
3 The Baseline period uses a 1995 base-year for F-Gas emissions, and 1990 for all other greenhouse gases.
4 The sector definitions used in this plan have changed slightly since the publication of the previous Climate Change Plan, in line with changes made by the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2019 to the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. Sector chapters, and the analytical annexes, set out the sources covered by each sector.
5 Climate Change Committee: Scotland's Carbon Budgets
6 Further action to decarbonise energy supply will be as a result of market change or action from the UK. These are outside of the scope of the CCP analysis.
7 Energy Saving Trust: EV fact check: your questions answered
8 Child Poverty Action Group: The Cost of a Child in Scotland in 2025
9 EY: Energy Systems and Just Transition (2023)
10 ONS: Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy (2026)
11 PWC: Green Jobs Barometer (2024)
12 Public Health Scotland. The building blocks of health. Edinburgh: Public Health Scotland; 2023.
13 Anderson JO, Thundiyil JG, Stolbach A. Clearing the air: a review of the effects of particulate matter air pollution on human health.
14 CAFS2 annual progress report: CAFS2 annual progress report 2025 and data from Scottish Air Quality Database - Data
15 Glasgow City Council: City centre air pollution drops by a third following LEZ enforcement
16 World Health Organisation: Cycling and walking can help reduce physical inactivity and air pollution, save lives and mitigate climate change
17 National Centre for Social Research: Walking and Cycling Index 2023
18 A.J. Kearns, M. Bhagat, D. Rae, A. McGonigle, E. Caldow, L. Marquis, C. Dove: Health gains from home energy efficiency measures: The missing evidence in the UK net-zero policy debate,Public Health in Practice
19 Ramirez, C. N., Deru, J., Dowling, D., Boyle, D., Skellington, A., Fulker, J., ... & Ambler, M. (2023). The distribution of climate action co-benefits: NZCM Methodology Report.
20Edinburgh Climate Change Institute: UK Co-benefits Atlas
21 Phillips, S; Wang, J; Pister, A; Higgins-Lavery, R; Bissett, S; Wharmby, C; Field, S; Hinrichs, U; Sudmant, A; Bach, B (2025). “The UK Co-Benefits Atlas: An Interactive Visualisation Atlas to Understand the Impacts of Achieving Climate Action Targets”. Published June 25, 2025.
22 Sudmant, Andrew; Higgins-Lavery, Ruaidhri. (2026). The Co-Benefits of Scotland's Climate Change Plan (2026 - 2040)., 2026 [dataset]. University of Edinburgh. School of Geosciences. Edinburgh Climate Change Institute. https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/8087
23 Sudmant, A., Boyle, D., Higgins‐Lavery, R. et al. Climate policy as social policy? A comprehensive assessment of the economic impact of climate action in the UK. J Environ Stud Sci 15, 476–490 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-024-00955-9
24 Edinburgh Climate Change Institute: Socio-Economic Impacts of Heat Networks
25 Lait, J., Foxon, T. J., McLachlan, C., & Sudmant, A. (2026). Valuing the wider benefits of net zero: Conceptual foundations of new assessment frameworks in the United Kingdom. Energy Research & Social Science, 131, 104516.
26 These are the costs of actions outlined minus the cost savings noted above. Further detail on how these costs are calculated is provided in the Analytical Annex.
27 The SFC’s report has provided welcome context to assessing the costs of net zero within this Plan, however it is worth noting there are important differences in the underlying assumptions that make direct comparison challenging, most clearly a difference in the proposed policy pathway.
28 Further action to decarbonise energy supply will be as a result of market change or action from the UK. These are outside of the scope of the CCP analysis.
29Office for Budget Responsibility: Net-zero is much cheaper than thought for UK – and unchecked global warming far more costly - Carbon Brief
30 Note: investment in this context means capital spending.
31 Audit Scotland: How the Scottish Government is set up to deliver climate change goals. P.2
32 Scottish Government: Place Principle Introduction
33 Climate Change Committee: The Seventh Carbon Budget.
34 Scottish Government: Key Insights from Scotland's Natural Capital - Making the Case for Nature: insights from Scotland's Natural Capital analyses
35 Scottish Government: Scotland’s Circular Economy and Waste Route Map, 2024
36 Results from the 2024/2025 campaign suggest that messaging has had a positive impact on the target audience’s commitment to taking climate action. Among those who recognised the campaign, 78% said they understood the actions needed to address climate change and 76% felt more motivated to reduce their emissions after seeing the advertising. In contrast, only 49% of non-recognisers reported feeling a similar level of motivation.
37 UK Offshore Energy Workforce Transferability Review, Robert Gordon University, May 2021
38 Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2024, ONS
39 EY: Just Transition Review of the Scottish Energy Sector
40 Scottish Government: Scotland’s Carbon Footprint 1998-2021
41 Transport Scotland: Scottish Transport Statistics 2024; Chapter 13
42 UK Government: A UK government food strategy for England, considering the wider UK food system
43 SWEFT: 2023 Household waste results summary , Zero Waste Scotland
44 IPBES: Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health
45 Food Standards Scotland; The Eatwell Guide: a More Sustainable Diet
47 National Food Strategy: The Plan
48 Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition: Iron and Health Report - GOV.UK
49 Scottish Government: The Scottish Health Survey 2024
50Climate Change Committee: Scotland’s Carbon Budgets
51 WRAP: Net Zero: why resource efficiency holds the answers
52 Zero Waste Scotland: 2021 Scottish Food Waste Estimate
53 Zero Waste Scotland: 2021 Scottish Food Waste Estimate
54 Scottish Government: Procurement Reform (Scotland) Act 2014: statutory guidance
55 Scottish Government: Sustainable Procurement
56 Scottish Government: Scotland’s Carbon Footprint 1998 – 2021
57 Transport Scotland: Benefits of Active Travel
58 Zero Waste Scotland: Carbon Metric Publications
59 A recent report by Energy UK notes that this effect will “play out over a decade” and that in the meantime international wholesale gas prices will “remain a significant driver of electricity prices. Energy UK (March 2025) How to cut bills
60 Scottish Government: Key Findings Summary - Scottish House Condition Survey: 2023 Key Findings
61 Scottish Government: Scottish House Condition Survey: 2024 Key Findings - gov.scot
62 Scottish Government: Heat in buildings: future plans
63 Scottish Fuel Poverty Advisory Panel: Response to the Scottish Government’s Tackling Fuel Poverty in Scotland periodic report: 2021-24
64 Scottish Government: Tackling Fuel Poverty in Scotland: periodic report 2021-2024
65 Scottish Government: Heat in buildings: future plans
66 Scottish Enterprise: Economic Value of Clean Heat in Scotland
67 Climate Change Committee: The Seventh Carbon Budget
68 Skills Development Scotland: Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan 2020-2025
69 CITB: Building Skills for Net Zero Scotland
70 Green Jobs Taskforce: Report to Government, Industry and the Skills Sector
71 Scottish Government: Heat in Buildings Strategy: 2022 update; Scottish Government: Heat in Buildings: progress report 2023; and Scottish Government: Heat in Buildings: progress report 2024
72 Scottish Government: Climate Change Plan: monitoring reports 2022; Scottish Government: Climate change monitoring report 2023; Scottish Government: Climate change monitoring report 2024; Scottish Government: Climate change monitoring report 2025
73 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023; residential and public buildings only
74 Scottish Government: Scottish House Condition Survey: 2024 Key Findings - gov.scot
75Scottish Government: Green Heat Finance Taskforce reports: Scottish Government response
76 As at 23 February 2026
77 Scottish Government: Permitted development rights to support the provision of new homes: consultation - summary of responses
78 Scottish Government: Heat Networks Delivery Plan: review report 2024
79 Heat in buildings: future plans - gov.scot
80 Scottish Government: Heat Networks Quarterly Reports
81 Heat in buildings: future plans - gov.scot
82 Green Heat Finance Taskforce reports: Scottish Government response - gov.scot
83 Scottish Government: Just transition for the built environment and construction sector: a discussion paper
84 Scottish Enterprise: Economic Value of Clean Heat in Scotland
85 Climate Change Committee: The Seventh Carbon Budget
86 Scottish Government: Green Heat Finance Taskforce Part 2 report - Final - March 2025
87 Transport Scotland: National Transport Strategy 2
88 Scottish Government: Scotland’s Circular Economy
89 Transport Scotland: National Transport Strategy 2
90 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023
91 ONS, Nomis: Business Register and Employment Survey
92 Scottish Government: Annual Business Survey and businesses in Scotland
93 ONS, Nomis: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
94 ONS, Nomis: Annual Population Survey
95 Oxford Economics forecasting for Skills Development Scotland: Data Matrix
96 Scotland’s Modern Apprenticeship programme is 62% in favour of males; transport-related apprenticeship starts were 96% male in 2023/24, with very little change over the past eight years ONS, Nomis: Annual population survey
97 Scottish Government: Just Transition: draft plan for transport in Scotland
98 Transport Scotland: A route map to achieve a 20 per cent reduction in car kilometres by 2030
99 Transport Scotland: Reducing car use for a healthier, fairer, and greener Scotland: Analysis of Consultation Responses
100 Transport Scotland: Travel Demand Management Options Study
101 ClimateXChange: Reducing car use through parking policies: an evidence review
102 Transport Scotland: Achieving Car Use Reduction in Scotland: A Renewed Policy Statement
103 Transport Scotland: Active Travel Infrastructure Investment Report
104 Cycling Scotland: Irvine and Kilwinning among dozens of Scottish locations to see more people on bikes
105 Transport Scotland: A Network Fit For The Future: Vision for Scotland’s Public Electric Vehicle Charging Network
106 Transport Scotland: Draft Electric Vehicle Public Charging Network Implementation Plan
107 As a result of the UK Government introducing a new methodology for counting EV charging across the UK in February 2026, the Scottish Government is currently reviewing its target for enabling the delivery of approximately 24,000 additional public charge points by 2030. An updated target, supporting the delivery of Scotland’s Vision for public EV charging network, which is both comprehensive and convenient, will be published in the Summer of 2026 with a finalised Vision Implementation Plan for public EV charging.
108 UK Government: Jet Zero strategy
109 ORR: Table 6320 - Infrastructure on the mainline
110 Transport Scotland: Renewed Policy Statement
111 Transport Scotland: Strategic Transport Projects Review 2
112 UK Government: Cycling Diversion Factors
113 Walk, Wheel, Cycle Trust: Scotland Walking and Cycling Index
114 SMMT: Electric Vehicle (EV) Data
115 Motor Transport: Record number of commercial vehicles hit UK roads, Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reveals
116 UK Government: Review of electricity market arrangements (REMA): Summer update, 2025
117 Transport Scotland: Towards Zero Emission HGV Infrastructure in Scotland: Phase 2 Report
118 Transport Scotland: Islands Connectivity Plan
119 ClimateXChange: Identifying the economic impact from ULEV uptake
120 Transport Scotland: Approach to Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience
121 UK Government: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022
122 Greenhouse gas emissions are reported in Scottish Greenhouse Gas statistics using sector definitions set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under these definitions, greenhouse gas emissions are reported in the 'Waste’ sector, and energy from waste emissions are reported in the 'Energy Supply' sector.
123 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023
124 Waste from all sources for 2023, SEPA: Waste from all sources generated and managed 2023
125 This issue was raised in the Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee Report on the Draft Climate Change Plan, Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee Report on the Draft Climate Change Plan (2026)
126 The Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are based on international reporting standards, as set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). See more at Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC: Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC
[127] 2021 data from the Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2022, covering SIC division 38 – Waste Collection, Treatment and Disposal Activities; Materials Recovery. Scottish Government: Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2022
[128] 2023 data from the business register and employment survey, covering SIC division 38 - waste collection, treatment & disposal, materials recovery. ONS, Nomis: Official Census and Labour Market Statistics
129 ‘Review of the 2019 Food Waste Reduction Action Plan’, available on the Scottish Government website at: Supporting documents - Food waste: review of 2019 waste reduction action plan - gov.scot
130 DEFRA: Extended Producer Responsibility for Packaging Consultation Government response, March 2022
[131] The Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment Regulations 2013
132 Zero Waste Scotland: Scottish Waste Environmental Footprint Tool (SWEFT)
133 Zero Waste Scotland has also developed a guide for local authorities which aims to support improved reuse practices across Household Waste Recycling Centres. Zero Waste Scotland: Making reuse happen at HWRCs guide for local authorities
134 Zero Waste Scotland: 2021 Scottish Food Waste Estimate
135 Zero Waste Scotland: 2021 Scottish Food Waste Estimate
137 SEPA: Waste (from all sources) for 2023
138 For more on this work, please see: Circular Construction Hub aims to increase reuse of building materials and drive investment in Scotland | Zero Waste Scotland
139 The Investment Hierarchy was introduced in the 2021 Infrastructure Investment Plan and was later included in the Client Guide to Construction Projects. The Client Guide is mandatory for all Scottish Public Finance Manual (SPFM) projects and recommended for all publicly funded projects. The Client Guide calls for the use of design for deconstruction, disassembly, and re use, as well as the production of a design-for-disassembly/deconstruction/recycling guide for each project.
140 Primary aggregates refers to crushed rock, gravel and sand from quarries - materials which are produced from naturally occurring mineral deposits and compacted for use in construction and other industries.
[141] We also need to see a long-term reduction of emissions from Energy from Waste, which is addressed in the Energy Supply Sector chapter.
[142] Scottish Water: Net Zero Emissions Routemap
143 European Commission: Urban wastewater
144 Zero Waste Scotland: Household Food Waste in Scotland 2021-22 report
145 Public Health Wales: Circular Economies and Sustainable Health and Well-being: The public health impact of public bodies refocusing on waste reduction and reuse in Wales
146 Zero Waste Scotland: Household Food Waste in Scotland 2021-22
147 Scottish Government: Stop, Sort, Burn, Bury - incineration in the waste hierarchy: independent review
149 Zero Waste Scotland: Circularity Gap Report
150 UK Withdrawal from the European Union (Continuity) (Scotland) Act 2021
151 Economic Impact Scenarios for Scotland’s Energy Transition
152 Zero Waste Scotland: Food Waste Estimate for 2021
153 Zero Waste Scotland: The composition of household waste at the kerbside in 2021-23
154 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023
155 Emissions associated with offshore oil and gas production, for example flaring on platforms, are not within the scope of Scotland’s statutory emission reduction targets. These emissions are not disaggregated to a Scotland level within the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The emissions arising from consumption in Scotland of oil and gas (e.g. through combustion in ICE vehicles or gas boilers for domestic heating) are covered in the relevant chapters of this Plan (e.g. transport and buildings).
156 Scottish Government: Total final energy consumption at regional and local authority level: 2005 to 2023
157Ernst & Young: Just Transition Review of the Scottish Energy Sector, Project Ninian – baseline data updates, p.8.
158 Ernst & Young: Energy System and Just Transition Independent Analysis
159 Scottish Energy Statistics Hub
160 Scottish Energy Statistics Hub
161 UK Government: Clean Power Action Plan: A new era of clean electricity
162 Scottish Government: Stop, Sort, Burn, Bury - incineration in the waste hierarchy: independent review, Scottish Government, 2022; and Scottish Government: Second report: Decarbonisation of residual waste infrastructure
163 Scottish Government: Independent review of the role of incineration in the waste hierarchy: Scottish Government response
164 Scottish Government: Stop, Sort, Burn, Bury - incineration in the waste hierarchy: independent review
165 Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee Report on the Draft Climate Change Plan. Page 75: “The Committee heard from stakeholders that tackling the remaining emissions from the waste sector (and indeed potentially having a further impact on reducing Scotland's carbon footprint) involves prioritising actions in order of the "waste hierarchy" in line with circular economy principles: 1. reducing waste, 2. reuse and repair, 3. recycling, 4. recovery, 5. and finally disposal.”
166 UK Government: Extending the UK ETS cap beyond 2030 (English consultation document - HTML version)
167 Scottish Government: Draft Bioenergy Policy Statement
168 Ernst & Young: Just Transition Review of the Scottish Energy Sector, Project Ninian – baseline data updates, p.8.
169 Ibid.
170 Fraser of Allander Institute: The Economic Impact of Scotland’s Renewable Energy Sector – 2025 Update
171 January 2024 – December 2025 Scottish Energy Statistics Hub
172 Scottish Government: Scottish House Condition Survey: 2024 Key Findings – Fuel Poverty
173 Scottish Government: Energy system and Just Transition: independent analysis
174 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023
175 Office for National Statistics: Regional GVA Data
176 ONS, Nomis: Business Register and Employment Survey
177 The make-up of the Grangemouth cluster includes multiple industrial sectors. Emissions relating to fuel production (and finished fuel import following the closure of the Grangemouth refinery) are covered in the Energy Supply chapter of this plan. For the purposes of this chapter, references to Grangemouth refer to wider industrial processes and emissions.
178 Figures may not sum to totals due to rounding.
179 Pultar, A. and Ferrier, J.: Transforming Industry: Strategic Policy Insights for Scotland's Industrial Decarbonisation
180 UK Government: Participating in the UK ETS
181 UK Government: UK Emissions Trading Registry
182 While the UK ETS cap is set on a yearly basis, allowances can be carried forward over years. This means that emissions are not capped to the number of allowances available each year. However, emissions will be capped to the total number of allowances released over the longer-term.
183 UK Government: Developing the UK Emissions Trading Scheme: main government response
184 PA Consulting: Demand-side policies for industrial decarbonisation: a review of the function and effects of labelling schemes, product standards and procurement policies
185 Scottish Government: Deep Decarbonisation Pathways for Scottish Industries: A study for the Scottish Government - Final Report
186 SEPA: Our Corporate Plan
187 Scottish Government: Heat in buildings: future plans
188 BIC and RCI: Is there enough biomass to defossilise the chemicals and derived materials sector by 2050
190 Climate Change Committee: Scotland's Carbon Budgets
191 UK Government: Enabling Industrial Electrification: summary of responses
192 Scottish Government: A Trading Nation - Realising Scotland's Hydrogen Potential: plan for exports
193 Climate Change Committee: The Seventh Carbon Budget
194 Climate Change Committee: Delivering a reliable decarbonised power system
195 £3.5 billion in capex investment for the base case, with potential into growth case and beyond.
196 Scottish Government: Negative Emissions Technologies (NETS): Feasibility Study - Final Report
197 UK Government: UK-EU Summit: Common Understanding
198 IMO: Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter
199 European Commission: Clean Industrial Deal
200 Scottish Government: Total income from farming estimates: 2018-2024
201 Scottish Government: Sector Briefing – Food and Drink
202 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023
203 Both of these documents are available from https://www.ruralpayments.org/
204 Scottish Agricultural Census: results - gov.scot
205 Scottish Government: Scotland’s Rural Economy
206 UK Government: Domestic farm support funding (Bew Review): government response
207 Figures are of land converted and maintained under the Agri-Environment Climate Scheme.
They are subject to change due to the nature of AECS Applications and awards of contracts. Applicants can reject offers of contracts, contracts expire and some opt to not reapply.
208 Climate Change Committee: Net Zero The UK's contribution to stopping global warming
209 Forest Research: Forestry Statistics 2024: Chapter 1: Woodland
210 Scottish Forestry analysis
211 Scottish Forestry analysis
212 Peatlands are wetland ecosystems in which waterlogging prevents surface vegetation from fully decomposing. Instead, it very slowly accumulates into layers of peat at around 1mm/year. Scotland’s deepest peat deposits – some of which are several metres deep – therefore took thousands of years to develop. The surface vegetation that becomes peat in this way captured carbon from the atmosphere as it grew and this also gradually becomes locked into the peat. Over time Scotland’s peat soils have built up a significant store of around 1.9 billion tonnes of carbon.
213 NatureScot: Peatland ACTION
214 IUCN: Commission of Inquiry on Peatlands Update: Funding for peatland restoration and management
215 Scottish Government: Summary of Scottish Data from UK Natural Capital Accounts, 2024
216 ONS: UK natural capital accounts: 2024
217 Scottish Government: Natural capital - importance to the Scottish economy: research
218 NorthWest2045: Regional Land Use Partnership
219 South of Scotland Regional Economic Partnership: Regional Land Use Framework (RLUF)
220 Gross value added (GVA) is the measure of the value and contribution of goods and services produced by a sector or an industry to the economy.
221 Scottish Forestry: Economic Impact of Forest Based Activities in Scotland
222 Forest Research: Forestry Statistic 2024 – UK Grown Timber
223 Scottish Forestry: Forestry Strategy
224 Scottish Forestry: A Routemap to Resilience for Scotland's Forests and Woodlands
225 Scottish Government: Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029
226 Scottish Government: National Flood Resilience Strategy
227 Scottish Government: Scottish Land Rights and Responsibilities Statement 2022 - gov.scot
228 NatureScot: Mapping current and future workforce and skills requirements in peatland restoration
229 Scottish Government: National Islands Plan
230 Scottish Forestry: Forestry Strategy
231 NatureScot: Scotland’s National Peatland Plan: Working for our future
232 Scottish Government: Climate Change Plan: Monitoring Report
233 Scottish Government: Climate Change Plan: Monitoring Report
234 Scottish Government: Ending the sale of peat: Consultation
235 NPF4 Planning Guidance Policy 2 - Climate Mitigation and Adaptation
236 Peatland ACTION - Assessing herbivore impact for Peatland ACTION applications.
237 Scottish Government: Independent Commission for the Land-based Learning Review report - SG response: implementation plan
238 Scottish Government: Independent Commission for Land-Based Learning - review and implementation plan: SG response - progress report
239 Scottish Government: Natural Capital Market Framework
240 Scottish Government: Analysis of blended funding models.
241 NatureScot: Carbon Contracts Pilot.
242Arcgis: Scottish Public and Crown Estate Land
243 Scottish Government: Agricultural Reform Route Map
244 For example, through the Flow Country Partnership
245 Scottish Government: Peatland ACTION five year partnership plan 2025 – 2030
246 Scottish Government: Scottish Budget 2025 to 2026
247 Confor: Engagement with local people and communities
248 A review of the future of the forestry workforce in Scotland: Prepared on behalf of Lantra and the Scottish Forest and Timber Technologies Skills Group; July 2019
249 Scottish Forestry Analysis
250 This is dependent on the type and location of a woodland
251 Scottish Forestry (2022) Scotland’s Forestry Strategy Implementation Plan
252 Scottish Forest & Timber Technologies (2024), Skills Action Plan 2024-2027
253 NatureScot: Mapping current and future workforce and skills requirements in peatland restoration
254 Scottish Government: Transferable skills in land-based and aquaculture sectors: review
255 Timbersource, General Timber Sale Prices, 2024.
256 the UK would need to use 78% more timber by 2050 if demand continues to rise at current rates. Global Wood Markets, 2022
257 Scottish Government: Natural capital - importance to the Scottish economy: research
258 Scottish Government: Scottish Climate Survey
259 United Nations: The ocean – the world’s greatest ally against climate change
260 WorldBank: Climate Explainer: Oceans and Climate Change
261 OSPAR: Climate Change Thematic Assessment
262 IAEA: The ocean carbon cycle
263 OSPAR: 9. Considering the Role of Climate Change and Ocean Acidification in Healthy Seas
264 World Ocean Review: Oceans under climate change
265 Scottish Government: Future fisheries: management strategy - 2020 to 2030
266 Scottish Government: Supporting documents - Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2022
267 McGoohan et al. (in prep) Understanding the emissions baseline for Scotland’s aquaculture and marine renewable industries.
268 Scottish Government: Vision for sustainable aquaculture
269 Scottish Government: Scottish blue carbon action plan
270 UK Government: Marine strategy part three: 2025 UK programme of measures
271 Scottish Government: National marine planning - Marine planning
272 The indicators in this framework are focused on the just transition implications of our emissions reduction policies in the CCP. They do not consider issues relating to climate change adaptation. Our approach to monitoring and evaluation of our third Scottish National Adaptation Programme (SNAP3) is outlined in a bespoke M&E Framework.
273 Household waste incinerated is projected to increase until 2028 (when SEPA will commence full enforcement of the biodegradable municipal waste landfill ban) and then gradually reduce from 2028 onwards.
274 The two indicators in this section were included in the draft Plan as a ‘just transition indicators’; however, they have been re-categorised as part of the process of developing emissions outcome indicators.
275 Many of the agricultural policies within the Climate Change Plan (CCP) will ultimately be delivered via the Agricultural Reform Plan (ARP). As such, the long-term ambition will be to align CCP monitoring with the future ARP monitoring and evaluation framework. In the interim, this section includes further information on the current set of indicators for the agriculture sector.
276 The population size of Fife means that equivalent data cannot meaningfully be used to monitor any just transition implications of the decision to close the Fife Ethylene Plant at Mossmorran. As the Scottish Government develops a full Just Transition Monitoring and Evaluation Framework, we will explore whether there are indicators that can be used to track impacts for workers and the local community. The Scottish Government has also commissioned commercial advisers to conduct an economic impact assessment of the Mossmorran Fife Ethylene Plant closure.
277 Our RIIO-T3 Business Plan - SP Energy Networks
278 Scottish House Condition Survey - gov.scot, Table KA7
279 Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023 - gov.scot
280 Energy and emissions projections: 2024 to 2050 - GOV.UK
281 Annual Heating Degree Days - Projections (12km) | The Met Office climate data portal
282 Heat in buildings: future plans - gov.scot
283 Scottish House Condition Survey: 2024 Key Findings - gov.scot
284 Key sources for this internal modelling are EPC data obtained via the Energy Savings Trust and internal data from LHEES projects (for example, Local heat and energy efficiency strategies and delivery plans: guidance - gov.scot)
285 Methodology report – UK, Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland carbon budget advice
286 https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-regulation/domestic-and-non-domestic/energy-pricing-rules/energy-price-cap/energy-price-cap-default-tariff-levelsChanges to energy price cap between 1 January and 31 March 2026 | Ofgem
287 Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project
288 Information, analysis and support - Energy Saving Trust
289 Gas and electricity prices in the non-domestic sector - GOV.UK
290 Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project
291 Transport Scotland: Decarbonising the Scottish transport sector
292 Scottish Government: Greenhouse gas emissions projections: phase 1 and phase 2 modelling results
293 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023
294 UK Government: Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate consultation: final cost benefit analysis
295 Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders: 2024 and 2025 Figures from SMMT
296 Climate Change Committee: Progress in reducing emissions in Scotland - 2025 report to Parliament
297 Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate consultation: final cost benefit analysis
298 UK Vehicle Data | Automotive Industry Data and Statistics | SMMT
299 The-Seventh-Carbon-Budget-methodology-accompanying-data-v2-2025.xlsx
300 UK Vehicle Data | Automotive Industry Data and Statistics | SMMT
301 The-Seventh-Carbon-Budget-methodology-accompanying-data-v2-2025.xlsx
302 Electric vehicles: all you need to know - Energy Saving Trust
303 Transport analysis guidance - GOV.UK
304 Scottish Government: Greenhouse gas emissions projections: phase 1 and phase 2 modelling results
305 Chapter 2 - Bus and Coach travel | Transport Scotland
306 Green Finance Institute: Delivering Net Zero
307 ZEV HDV uptake trajectories - modelling assumptions
308 Scottish Transport Statistics 2025, Transport Scotland.
309 Jet zero: modelling framework - GOV.UK
310 Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023 - gov.scot
311 Chapter 9 - Water Transport | Transport Scotland
312 Transport Scotland: Scottish Transport Statistics 2024
313 Scottish Government: Energy system and Just Transition: independent analysis
315 Examples include established policies, such as the Deposit Return Scheme for single-use drinks containers in Scotland.
316 For example, Circular Economy and Waste Route Map, Circular Economy Act, and introduction of a UK-wide digital waste tracking system.
317 DEFRA, Introduction of mandatory digital waste tracking – Impact Assessment, 2021
318 Building a more productive and resilient UK through circularity
319 In-the-loop.pdf
320 Previous research found that around half of businesses studied realised a 14-fold or greater return on investment. For more detail see, The business case for reducing food loss and waste, Champions 12.3, 2017, business-case-for-reducing-food-loss-and-waste.pdf
321 Extended producer responsibility for packaging Full Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment (BRIA)
323 Impact Assessment - Reforming the UK packaging producer responsibility
324 Scotland’s Circular Economy and Waste Route Map to 2030
325 Future of the Scottish Landfill Communities Fund: consultation, Scottish Government, March 2025, https://www.gov.scot/publications/future-scottish-landfill-communities-fund-consultation/
326 Scotland’s Circular Economy and Waste Route Map to 2030
327 Just Transition Review of Scottish Energy Supply, EY, 2022, p5
328 main-report.pdf, SSE, p397
[329] UK ETS scope expansion to waste: interim authority response
330 UK ETS scope expansion to waste: interim authority response
331 Traded carbon values used for modelling purposes, 2025 - GOV.UK
332 Note: this table does not include the social benefit of lower carbon emissions as a result of the policies brought forward for the Business and Industrial Processes CCP envelope.
333 Traded carbon values used for modelling purposes, 2025 - GOV.UK
334 Energy and emissions projections - GOV.UK
335 Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A new era of clean electricity – main report - GOV.UK
336 Carbon capture, utilisation and storage - Oil and gas - gov.scot
337 The challenge of accessing high-quality carbon offsets as part of the Net Zero transition
338 NZIP 2.0, also known as Cost Optimisation Model for Industrial Technologies (COMIT), was developed in-house by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and is based on the original NZIP 1.0 model used by and developed for the Climate Change Committee (CCC). NZIP 2.0 was also used by the CCC in their latest advice to the Scottish Government in their industry modelling.
339 Each allowance within the UK ETS is equivalent to 1tCO2e. Every UK ETS participant is required to surrender a number of allowances corresponding to their total emissions each scheme year.
340 Traded carbon values used for modelling purposes, 2025 - GOV.UK
341 Traded carbon values used for modelling purposes, 2025 - GOV.UK
342 These lower voluntary market prices were calculated by using the reduction in the traded-carbon price between the central and low sensitivity scenario and applying this to central voluntary market prices.
343 Similar to the low sensitivity scenario, the carbon price faced by the non-traded sector is calculated by using the increase in the traded-carbon price between the high and central scenarios and applying this to the central voluntary market price trajectory.
344 Traded carbon values used for modelling purposes, 2025 - GOV.UK
345 UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS): a policy overview - GOV.UK
346 Gas and electricity prices in the non-domestic sector - GOV.UK
347 Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project
348 Scotland's Carbon Budgets - Climate Change Committee
350 Global Assessment of Direct Air Capture Costs - IEAGHG
351 Integrating greenhouse gas removals in the UK Emissions Trading Scheme - GOV.UK
352 Updated agricultural livestock census numbers for 2025 were published shortly prior to the publication of the Draft CCP but after it was internally finalised. We have incorporated those updated numbers into the final CCP, which resulted in a relatively small change to both the baseline projection and the estimated policy reductions.
353 Note: this table does not include the social benefit of lower carbon emissions as a result of the policies brought forward for the Agriculture CCP envelope.
354 ClimateXChange (2022): Decarbonisation of mobile agricultural machinery in Scotland – an evidence review
355 the UK would need to use 78% more timber by 2050 if demand continues to rise at current rates. Global Wood Markets, 2022
356 See Peatland Emission Reduction Potential from partial/seasonal re-wetting and other management measures and Towards Improving Area Estimates and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data for Peat under Grassland Conversion in Scotland.
357 NatureScot: Carbon Contracts Pilot.
359 Peatland benefits | IUCN UK Peatland Programme
360 Glenk, Klaus; Glendinning, James; Martin-Ortega, Julia (2025). 2024 update of cost per area estimates matching land cover types reported in Brown et al. (2021) – using data based on Nature Scot Peatland Action grants. Scotland's Rural College (SRUC). Report. https://doi.org/10.58073/SRUC.29940308.v1
361 The term additionality is used to mean the carbon sequestration over and above that which would have happened anyway in the absence of a given project or activity.
362 IUCN - Commission of Inquiry on Peatlands Update: Funding for peatland restoration and management
363 Alison Cairns (EKOS) 2026. Peatland ACTION - Mapping current and future workforce and skills requirements in peatland restoration | NatureScot .
364 Limitations of job creation estimates include their static nature, site-specific applicability, lack of consideration for net job creation, and inability to reflect actual labour force requirements over time. These estimates are based on simplified metrics like investment or area restored, which do not account for factors such as economies of scale, restoration duration, or varying restoration costs.
365 Integrating Greenhouse Gas Removals in the UK ETS: Main Response
367 72% of respondents felt climate change is an immediate and urgent problem - Scottish Government: Scottish Climate Survey: main findings.
Contact
Email: ClimateChangePlan@Gov.Scot