Scottish economic insights: September 2025

Footnotes

1 Data - World Uncertainty Index

2 Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

3 State of U.S. Tariffs: September 4, 2025 | The Budget Lab at Yale

4 World Economic Outlook Update, July 2025: Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty

5 Scottish Government (2025), Scottish economic insights: April 2025 (link)

6 Northern Ireland Government (2025) - The Direct Economic Impact of the New USA Tariff Regime on the Local Economy (link) and OBR (2025) Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2025 (link)

7 Sources include: Economic Performance: GDP statistics, S&P Global RBS PMI. Labour Market:

Labour Market Statistics, ONS Textkernel and Real Time Information Statistics, and Business Insights and Conditions

Survey (BICS). Trade: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics, S&P Global UK PMI, BICS, Economic Policy Uncertainty

(EPU). Prices: ONS, Bank of England, Food and Agricultural Organisation of the UN. UK Public Finances: ONS.

Outlook: S&P Global RBS PMI, Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator, Economic Policy Uncertainty.

8 Economy statistics - gov.scot

9 Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot

10 Royal Bank of Scotland Regional Growth Tracker report for August 2025 | Royal Bank of Scotland

11 Scottish Business Monitor Q2 2025 | FAI

12 Quarterly Economic Indicator - Scottish Chambers

13 Labour market statistics - gov.scot

14 Royal Bank of Scotland Regional Growth Tracker report for August 2025 | Royal Bank of Scotland

15 Textkernel new online job adverts - Office for National Statistics

16 Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics

17 Average weekly earnings in Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

18 Agents' summary of business conditions - 2025 Q3 | Bank of England

19 Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

20 Changes to energy price cap between 1 October and 31 December 2025 | Ofgem

21 Predictions & Insights into the Default Tariff Cap (Price Cap)

22 FAO Food Price Index | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

23 Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator : Monthly Data - gov.scot

24 UK Consumer confidence up two points in August to -17 - NIQ

25 Effective interest rates - July 2025 | Bank of England

26 GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2025 Quarter 1 (January to March) - gov.scot

27 Forecasts for the UK economy - GOV.UK

28 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2025 | Scottish Fiscal Commission

29 FAI Economic Commentary Q2 2025 | FAI

30 Monetary Policy Report - August 2025 | Bank of England

31 Latest results from the Decision Maker Panel survey - 2025 Q3 | Bank of England