Scottish economic insights: September 2025

Introduction

The Scottish economy has grown through the first half of 2025 against the backdrop of a number of intensifying headwinds. Internationally, the sharp rise in economic uncertainty arising from the stream of US tariff announcements since April, coupled with a rise in domestic inflation, loosening labour market conditions and weaknesses in consumer and business sentiment, present a complex economic environment for businesses and households to navigate. Economic growth is forecast to slow slightly in 2025, as it is at a global level, and the extent to which it picks up in 2026 depends in part on the persistence of these headwinds.