GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2025 Quarter 1 (January to March)

Key Points

• In 2025 Quarter 1 (January to March), Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in real terms, unrevised up from the first estimate published on 28 May.
• In the latest quarter, output grew by 0.5% in the services sector, grew by 0.3% in the construction sector, and fell by 0.1% in the production sector.
• In the services sector, the largest positive contributions to growth were seen in professional, scientific and technical services, which grew by 2.6% in the quarter, and wholesale, retail and motor trades, which grew by 1.7%. The largest negative contribution in services was seen in financial and insurance services, which fell by 1.7%.
• In the production sector, the largest positive contribution to growth was in electricity and gas supply, which grew by 6.5% in the quarter. This was offset by falls of 1.4% in manufacturing and 2.3% in mining and quarrying.
• Real GDP per head is estimated to have growth by 0.2% in 2025 Quarter 1, revised down from the first estimate of 0.3%.
• The household saving ratio, which represents the proportion of disposable income which is available for saving or paying off debt, is estimated at 6.6% in the latest quarter, up from 5.6% at the same point last year.

Introduction

This publication includes updated estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for Scotland, along with a range of additional statistics which are used for economic forecasting and modelling.

These statistics continue to be affected by the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on both data collection and on the structure of the economy itself. As a result, estimates for the years 2020 to 2022, in particular, are subject to more uncertainty than for other years and may continue to be more prone to revision over time.

International comparisons, and comparisons within the UK, should be made with appropriate caution for the levels of uncertainty and variations in methods in use by different statistical institutes around the world. The estimates of GDP from 2020 onwards are still continuing to evolve as more data becomes available, and it is likely that these results, including comparative positions relative to pre-pandemic levels, will continue to change in the coming years.

An Accredited Official Statistics Publication for Scotland

These statistics are accredited official statistics. The Office for Statistics Regulation has independently reviewed and accredited these statistics as complying with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Quarterly National Accounts Scotland was accredited in January 2014, as detailed in Assessment Report 272.

Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

Scottish Government statistics are regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.