The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Financial Strategy

Footnotes

1. Scottish Government (2023), Equality, opportunity, community: New leadership - A fresh start (www.gov.scot) – April 2023

2. International Monetary Fund (2023), World Economic Outlook, April 2023: A Rocky Recovery (imf.org) – April 2023

3. Legislation.gov.uk (2000), Public Finance and Accountability (Scotland) Act 2000 (legislation.gov.uk) – January 2000

4. Office for Budget Responsibility (2023), Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2023 - Office for Budget Responsibility (obr.uk) – March 2023

5. Scottish Government (2021), Investing for jobs: Capital Spending Review 2021-2022 to 2025-2026 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – February 2021

6. Scottish Government (2021), A National Mission with Local Impact: Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-22 to 2025-26 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – February 2021

7. Scottish Government (2022), Investing in Scotland's Future: Resource Spending Review - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – May 2022

8. Scottish Government (2011), Christie Commission on the future delivery of public services - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – June 2011

9. National Records of Scotland (2022), Healthy Life Expectancy in Scotland, 2019-2021 | National Records of Scotland (nrscotland.gov.uk) - December 2022

10. Scottish Government (2023), A new deal for local government -gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – March 2023

11. Scottish Government (2023), Equality, opportunity, community: New leadership - A fresh start (www.gov.scot) – April 2023

12. Scottish Government (2022), Scotland's National Strategy for Economic Transformation - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)- March 2022

13. This is the figure that was 'locked in' at Budget 2023-24 until outturn data becomes available. The latest forecasts suggest that the net position has improved to £411 million in 2023-24 but this has no impact on the Scottish Government's funding position.

14. Scottish Government (2021), Framework for Tax 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – December 2021

15. The figures in this chapter are the latest available as of the 17th of May, which was the cut-off point for new economic data releases.

16. Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023), SFC Fiscal and Economic Forecasts – Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts- May 2023

17. Office for Budget Responsibility (2023), Economic and fiscal outlook - March 2023 - Office for Budget Responsibility (obr.uk) – March 2023

18. Office for National Statistics (2023), Inflation and price indices - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) – April 2023

19. International Monetary Fund (2023), World Economic Outlook, April 2023: A Rocky Recovery (imf.org) – April 2023

20. Resolution Foundation (2023), Hoping and coping Resolution Foundation – April 2023

21. Bank of England (2023), Monetary Policy Report - May 2023 | Bank of England – May 2023

22. Scottish Government (2022), Scotland's Fiscal Outlook: The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Financial Strategy - gov.scot (www.gov.scot), May 2022

23. Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023), SFC Fiscal and Economic Forecasts – Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts- May 2023

24. We have not included a funding forecast for AME as this is annual discretionary funding covered by HMT.

25. UK Government (2022), Autumn Statement 2022 HTML - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) – November 2022

26. UK Government (2023), Spring Budget 2023 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk), March 2023

27. Scottish Government (2022), Scotland's Fiscal Outlook: The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Financial Strategy - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – May 2022

28. UK Government (2023), Spring Budget 2023 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk), March 2023

29. UKG equivalents are Income Tax, Stamp Duty Land Tax and Landfill Tax

30. Scottish Government (2022), Fiscal framework: factsheet - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – July 2022

31. This estimate does not account for behavioural responses which might reduce the yield from the policy.

32. *The Pension Age Winter Heating Payment is still to be devolved and will replace the Winter Fuel Payment in Scotland. This benefit will commence from winter 2024. The forecasts from 2024-25 to 2027-28 are a Scottish Government estimate, so as not to create an artificial gap between forecasted expenditure and funding.

33. Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023), The fiscal backdrop to Spring Budget 2023 | Institute for Fiscal Studies (ifs.org.uk) – February 2023

34. UK Government (2023), GDP deflators at market prices, and money GDP March 2023 (Quarterly National Accounts) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) – April 2023

35. Scottish Government (2023), Public sector pay strategy 2023 to 2024 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) March 2023

36. Scottish Government (2023), Footnotes - Public sector pay strategy 2023 to 2024 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – March 2023

37. Scottish Government (2023), Public sector pay strategy 2023 to 2024 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – March 2023

38. Public Health Scotland (2022), Scottish Burden of Disease Forecasting Briefing (scotpho.org.uk) – November 2022

39. Scottish Government (2022), Emergency Budget Review: 2022 to 2023 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – November 2022

40. Scottish Government (2023), Equality, opportunity, community: New leadership - A fresh start (www.gov.scot) – April 2023

41. Scottish Government (2021), A National Mission with Local Impact: Infrastructure Investment Plan for Scotland 2021-22 to 2025-26 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – February 2021

42. Scottish Government (2022), Context - The Outcome of the Targeted Review of the Capital Spending Review – Updated Spending Allocations for 2023-24 to 2025-26 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – May 2022

43. Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023), Fiscal Sustainability Report – March 2023 | Scottish Fiscal Commission – March 2023

44. Scottish Government (2021), Fiscal framework: factsheet - November 2021

45. Scottish Government (2019), 6. Proceeds of Crime - Fiscal framework outturn report: 2019 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) – September 2019

46. Further information can be found at the Cashback for Communities website

47. The 2020-21 FRS data collection was severely disrupted. This meant that it was not possible to obtain a representative sample for the year. Recently published FRS data for 2021-22 will be incorporated in the next version of the model.

48. The relevant comparator for Social Security is England and Wales.

49. Scottish Government (2023), Scottish Child Payment - mygov.scot – May 2023

50. Scottish Government (2023), Discretionary Housing Payment - mygov.scot – May 2023

51. Scottish Government (2023), Carer's Allowance Supplement - mygov.scot – May 2023

52. Scottish Government (2023), Best Start Grant and Best Start Foods - mygov.scot – May 2023