The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Financial Strategy

Annex C: Fiscal Framework

This Annex sets out the implications of the Fiscal Framework for the Scottish Budget. More detail on how the Fiscal Framework operates is set out in the Fiscal Framework Technical Note. This includes the evolution of the fiscal powers of the Scottish Parliament, the timelines for reconciliations and how they affect the Scottish Budget, the limits of the borrowing powers and Scotland Reserve, and the Fiscal Framework Review.^[44]

This Annex outlines the latest BGAs which were published alongside the UK Spring Statement 2023. The SFC's latest revenue and expenditure forecasts have been published alongside this Medium-Term Financial Strategy.

Tax

Table C. 1 shows the latest forecasts for tax revenues from the SFC and the latest BGA estimates following the UK Spring Statement 2023.

Table C. 1: Forecasts of Tax Revenues and Block Grant Adjustments

		2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29
Income Tax2	Revenue	13,387	14,764	16,210	17,080	17,808	18,591	19,646	20,799
	BGA1	-13,624	-14,866	-15,799	-16,239	-16,722	-17,359	-18,092	N/A
	Difference	-237	-102	411	841	1,086	1,232	1,554	N/A
LBTT2	Revenue	807	840	772	733	792	905	992	1,053
	BGA1	-642	-722	-519	-508	-612	-723	-809	N/A
	Difference	165	118	254	225	179	183	183	N/A
SLfT2	Revenue	125	112	92	83	58	16	16	16
	BGA1	-102	-101	-96	-91	-84	-87	-92	N/A
	Difference	23	12	-5	-8	-26	-71	-76	N/A
Total	Revenue	14,320	15,716	17,074	17,896	18,658	19,513	20,654	21,869
	BGA1	-14,368	-15,688	-16,415	-16,838	-17,418	-18,168	-18,993	N/A
	Difference	-49	28	660	1,058	1,240	1,344	1,661	N/A

Note 1: The BGAs shown are calculated using the Indexed Per Capita (IPC) indexation method. This method in practice determines the BGAs applied to the budget.

Note 2: The 2021-22 LBTT and SLfT revenue and Block Grant Adjustment are outturn figures.

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Forecasts of future years provide an indication of the level of revenues that the SFC anticipates, but these figures will not be used to set future budgets, which will draw upon updated SFC forecasts.

Social Security

Table C. 2 shows the SFC's latest expenditure forecasts for social security benefits and the latest BGA estimates following the UK Spring Statement 2023.

Table C. 2: Forecasts of social security expenditure and block grant adjustments (£ million)

		2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29
Attendance Allowance	Expenditure	-588	-643	-715	-762	-790	-816	-842
	BGA1	549	646	714	728	733	744	N/A
	Difference	-9	3	-1	-34	-57	-72	N/A
Personal Independence Payment	Expenditure	-2,032	-2,713	-3,227	-3,559	-3,852	-4,178	-4,554
	BGA1	2,022	2,500	2,840	3,095	3,347	3,609	N/A
	Difference	-10	-213	-387	-463	-505	-569	N/A
Disability Living Allowance	Expenditure	-738	-803	-836	-831	-824	-827	-835
	BGA1	736	826	900	915	906	920	N/A
	Difference	-2	23	64	85	82	94	N/A
Carer's Allowance 2	Expenditure	-315	-373	-429	-483	-518	-544	-572
	BGA1	314	367	404	421	441	465	N/A
	Difference	-1	-6	-25	-62	-77	-79	N/A
Industrial Injuries Disablement Scheme	Expenditure	-78	-84	-86	-84	-83	-81	-79
	BGA1	79	84	84	80	77	74	N/A
	Difference	2	-1	-2	-3	-6	-7	N/A
Severe Disablement Allowance	Expenditure	-6	-6	-5	-5	-4	-3	-3
	BGA1	6	6	6	5	4	3	N/A
	Difference	0	0	0	0	0	0	N/A
Cold Weather Payments	Expenditure	-20	-22	-23	-23	-23	-22	-22
	BGA1	21	5	5	5	5	5	N/A
	Difference	1	-17	-17	-17	-17	-17	N/A
Total SS	Expenditure	-3,746	-4,644	-5,321	-5,746	-6,093	-6,472	-6,898
	BGA1	3,728	4,434	4,953	5,250	5,512	5,820	N/A
	Difference	-19	-210	-368	-495	-580	-652	N/A

Benefits Yet to Commence

The Carer Support Payment will be the next social security payment to be introduced, replacing Carer's Allowance in Scotland. Social Security Scotland will begin a pilot by the end of this year, followed by national launch in spring 2024.

Pension Age Winter Heating Payment is still to be devolved and will replace the Winter Fuel Payment in Scotland. This new benefit will commence from winter 2024.

Reconciliations and implications for the Scottish Budget

The forecasts for Scottish tax revenues and social security expenditure, and the corresponding BGAs, are based on the latest available information at the time of the Budget. Once outturn data are available, reconciliations are made to the Scottish Budget to ensure that the funding available ultimately corresponds to actual revenues and the BGAs based on the outturn data.

Reconciliations are made for both the revenues and the BGA for Income Tax. For Fully Devolved Taxes (LBTT and Scottish Landfill Tax), Social Security, and Non-Tax Revenues (Fines, Forfeitures and Fixed Penalties - FFFP), reconciliations are only made to the BGA element of funding.

In relation to Income Tax, a reconciliation for both revenues and the BGA for the 2021-22 financial year will be calculated when outturn data are available in summer 2023 and applied to the Scottish Budget 2024-25. The updated forecasts for 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 do not have any immediate impact on the Scottish Budget. Under the Fiscal Framework, a single reconciliation takes place three years after the original Budget was set and the updated forecasts in the interim have no direct impact.

In relation to the Fully Devolved Taxes, Social Security benefits and FFFP, final reconciliations for the BGAs for the 2022-23 financial year will be calculated when outturn is available later this year and applied to the Scottish Budget 2024-25.

The Fully Devolved Taxes and Social Security BGAs are also subject to an additional in-year reconciliation which takes place within each financial year, based on the OBR forecasts produced alongside a UK Government fiscal event in the autumn. There is no in-year reconciliation for FFFP.

Income Tax

For Scottish Income Tax, outturn data is normally available around 16 months after the end of the financial year. Given this long lag of availability of outturn data, the Income Tax revenue and BGA are fixed for three years from the time the Budget is set. A single reconciliation is then applied to the Budget three financial years after the Budget is set, e.g the reconciliation for 2020-21 Income Tax was applied to the 2023-24 budget. Outturn data for 2021-22 Income Tax is due to be published in Summer 2022, which will allow the Scottish and UK Governments to calculate and agree the final 2021-22 Income Tax reconciliation, which will be applied to the Scottish Budget 2024-25.

Table C. 3 shows that the latest forecast 2021-22 Income Tax reconciliation is negative £712 million. The final position will not be known until outturn receipts are available in summer 2023.

Table C. 3: Forecast Income Tax Reconciliation Applying to 2024-25 Budget (£million)

2021-22 Income Tax	Revenues	BGA	Net Position	Forecast Reconciliation
Forecast as of Budget 2021-22	12,263	-11,788	+475
Outturn	13,387	-13,624	-237	-712
Outturn against forecast	+1,124	-1,836

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

The potential scale of the reconciliations applying to the 2025-26 and 2026-27 Budgets are shown in tables C. 4 and C. 5 using the latest forecasts.

Table C. 4: Forecast Income Tax Reconciliation Applying To 2025-26 Budget (£million)

2022-23 Income Tax	Revenues	BGA	Net Position	Forecast Reconciliation
Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	13,670	-13,860	-190
Latest forecast	14,879	-14,866	+12	+203
Change	+1,208	-1,005

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Table C. 5: Forecast Income Tax Reconciliation Applying To 2026-27 Budget (£ Million)

2023-24 Income Tax	Revenues	BGA	Net Position	Forecast Reconciliation
Forecast as of Budget 2023-24	15,810	-15,485	+324
Latest forecast	16,210	-15,799	+411	+86
Change	+400	-314

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Based on the latest forecasts, the reconciliation to the Scottish Budget 2025-26 for 2022-23 Income Tax is forecast to positive £88 million. A reconciliation of positive £86 million is expected to apply to the Scottish Budget 2026-27 to account for 2023-24 Income Tax.

However, these forecasts are not certain and the final position will not be known for sure until outturn receipts are available for 2022-23 in summer 2024, and for 2023-24 in summer 2025.

Fully Devolved Taxes

Revenue Scotland manages and collects Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) and Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT) and these revenue streams feed in to the Scottish Budget as they are collected. There is no reconciliation required for these revenues; the Scottish Government manages any variance between what was forecast and actual revenues as part of its in-year budget management process. The latest 2023-24 revenue forecasts for LBTT and SLfT and the previous revenue forecasts are shown in Table C. 6.

Table C. 6: 2023-24 Revenue Forecast (£ Million)

LBTT	SFC Revenue Forecast – Budget 2023-24	773
	SFC Revenue Forecast – MTFS 2023	772
	Change	-1
SLfT	SFC Revenue Forecast – Budget 2023-24	79
	SFC Revenue Forecast – MTFS 2023	92
	Change	12

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

The BGAs for these taxes are reconciled in two stages. An in-year reconciliation is made within the same financial year. This is usually on the basis of OBR forecasts produced alongside the UK Autumn Budget. The forecast in-year reconciliations for 2023-24 LBTT and SLfT are shown in table C. 7.

Table C. 7: 2023-24 Indicative In-Year BGA Reconciliations (£ Million)

LBTT	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	-517
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	-519
	Indicative In-year reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	-2
SLfT	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	-99
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	-96
	Indicative In-year reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+2

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

As set out in Table C. 8, the forecast net effect on the Scottish Budget 2023-24 of the latest fully devolved revenue forecasts, when compared to the forecast in-year BGA reconciliations, is positive £17 million, (comprising negative £5 million for LBTT and positive £22 million for SLfT).

Table C. 8: Change In Net Position For 2023-24 Scottish Budget (£ Million)

Fully Devolved Tax	Forecast In-Year BGA Reconciliation	Change in SFC revenue forecast from Scottish Budget 2023-24	Forecast Net Position
LBTT	-2	-1	-3
SLfT	2	12	+14
Total	0	11	+12

Figures may not sum due to rounding. These figures are indicative, with the official in-year BGA reconciliation not available until Autumn 2023.

Outturn data becomes available in the autumn following the end of each financial year. Using these outturn figures, a final reconciliation will be applied to the Block Grant in the financial year two years after the Budget was set. Table C. 9 shows the forecast final reconciliations for 2022-23 LBTT and SLfT BGAs applying to the 2024-25 Scottish Budget.

Table C. 9: 2021-22 Forecast Final BGA Reconciliation (£ Million)

LBTT	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	-717
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	-722
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2024-25 Budget	-5
SLfT	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	-103
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	-101
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2024-24 Budget	+2

Note 1: Ultimately, the final BGA reconciliation will calculate the difference between the in-year forecast of the BGA (used to calculate the in-year reconciliation) and the outturn data (when available).

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Table C. 10 shows the forecast net effect on the budget for 2022-23 LBTT and SLfT by comparing the latest forecast revenues and BGAs to the forecast revenues and BGAs set at the time of the Scottish Budget 2022-23. The final net position will not be confirmed until final outturn is published later in the year.

Table C. 10: Latest Forecast Net Position For 2022-23 LBTT And SLfT (£ million)

		Revenues	BGA	Net Position
LBTT	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	749	-664	+86
	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	840	-722	+118
	Latest change in Forecast Net Position	90	-58	+33
SLfT	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	101	-82	-18
	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	112	-101	12
	Latest change in Forecast Net Position	12	-18	-7

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Social Security

The latest 2023-24 expenditure forecasts for Social Security and the previous expenditure forecasts are shown in Table C. 11.

Table C. 11: 2023-24 Expenditure Forecast (£ Million)

Attendance allowance	SFC Expenditure Forecast – Budget 2023-24	-614
	SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2023	-643
	Change	-29
Personal independence payment	SFC Expenditure Forecast – Budget 2023-24	-2,690
	SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2023	-2,713
	Change	-24
Disability living allowance	SFC Expenditure Forecast – Budget 2023-24	-765
	SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2023	-803
	Change	-38
Carer's allowance	SFC Expenditure Forecast – Budget 2023-24	-372
	SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2023	-373
	Change	-1
Industrial injuries disablement scheme	SFC Expenditure Forecast – Budget 2023-24	-84
	SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2023	-84
	Change	0
Severe disablement allowance	SFC Expenditure Forecast – Budget 2023-24	-6
	SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2023	-6
	Change	0
	SFC Expenditure Forecast – Budget 2023-24	-24
Cold Weather Payments	SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2023	-22
	Change	2
Total social security	SFC Expenditure Forecast – Budget 2023-24	-4,554
	SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2023	-4,644
	Change	-90

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

As with the fully devolved taxes, the BGAs for benefits are reconciled in two stages. An in-year reconciliation is made within the same financial year. This is usually on the basis of OBR forecasts produced alongside the UK Autumn Budget. The forecast in-year reconciliations to the 2023-24 Social Security BGAs are shown in Table C. 12.

Table C. 12: 2023-24 Indicative In-Year BGA Reconciliation (£ Million)

Attendance allowance	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	621
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	646
	Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+25
Personal independence payment	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	2,481
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	2,500
	Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+19
Disability living allowance	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	802
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	826
	Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+24
Carer's allowance	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	365
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	367
	Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+2
Industrial injuries disablement scheme	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	82
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	84
	Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+1
Severe disablement allowance	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	6
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	6
	Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+0
Cold Weather Payment	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	3
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	5
	Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+3
Total social security	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	4,360
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	4,434
	Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+73

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Table C. 13 sets out the net effect on the Scottish Budget 2023-24 of the latest expenditure forecasts for Social Security benefits with a BGA when compared to the total forecast in-year BGA reconciliations, is negative £16m.

Table C. 13: Change In Net Position For 2023-24 Scottish Budget (£ Million)

	Indicative In-Year BGA Reconciliation	Change in SFC expenditure forecast from 2023-24 Scottish Budget	Change in forecast net Position
Total social security benefits with a BGA1	73	90	-16

1) Carer's Allowance, Attendance Allowance, Child Disability Payment, Disability Living Allowance, Adult Disability Payment, Industrial Injuries Disablement Allowance, Severe Disablement Allowance, Cold Weather Payment

Figures may not sum due to rounding

Outturn data becomes available in the autumn following the end of each financial year. Using these outturn figures, a final reconciliation is applied to the Block Grant in the financial year two years after the Budget was set. Table C. 14 shows the forecast final reconciliation for the 2022-23 Social Security BGAs applying to the 2024-25 Scottish Budget.

Table C. 14: Forecast Social Security 2022-23 Final BGA Reconciliation (£ Million)

Attendance allowance	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	545
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	549
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget1	+4
Personal independence payment	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	2,024
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	2,022
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	-1
Disability living allowance	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	732
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	736
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+3
Carer's allowance	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	315
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	314
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	-0
Industrial injuries disablement scheme	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	78
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	79
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	1
Severe disablement allowance	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	6
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	6
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	0
	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	3
Cold Weather Payments	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	21
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+18
Total social security	Forecast BGA – Scottish Budget December 2022	3,703
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	3,728
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2023-24 Budget	+25

Note 1: Ultimately, the final BGA reconciliation will calculate the difference between the in-year forecast of the BGA (used to calculate the in-year reconciliation) and the outturn data (when available).

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Table C. 15 shows the forecast net effect on the budget for 2022-23 Social Security benefits by comparing the latest forecast expenditure and BGAs to the forecast expenditure and BGAs set at the time of the Scottish Budget 2022-23. The final net position will not be confirmed until final outturn is published later in the year.

Table C. 15: Latest Forecast Net Position For 2022-23 Social Security Expenditure (£ Million)

		Expenditure	BGA	Net Position
Attendance allowance	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	-545	545	0
	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	-558	549	-9
	Latest change in Forecast Net Position	-14	5	-9
Personal independence payment	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	-1,948	1,933	-15
	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	-2,032	2022	-10
	Latest change in Forecast Net Position	-84	89	5
Disability living allowance	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	-710	687	-23
	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	-738	736	-2
	Latest change in Forecast Net Position	-28	48	20
Carer's allowance	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	-315	323	8
	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	-315	314	-1
	Latest change in Forecast Net Position	0	-9	-9
Industrial injuries disablement scheme	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	-81	79	-1
	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	-78	79	2
	Latest change in Forecast Net Position	3	0	3
Severe disablement allowance	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	-6	6	0
	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	-6	6	0
	Latest change in Forecast Net Position	0	0	0
Cold Weather Payments	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	-21	14	-7
	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	-20	21	1
	Latest change in Forecast Net Position	1	7	8
	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	-3,626	3,587	-38
Total social security	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	-3,746	3,728	-19
	Latest change in Forecast Net Position	-121	140	19

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Note 1: There are minor differences in the methodology used to calculate the SFC's spending forecasts and the BGA forecasts, which are based on expenditure outturn and OBR forecasts, so comparisons should be interpreted with caution

Non-Tax revenue

Fines, Forfeitures and Fixed Penalties

Revenue from Fines, Forfeitures and Fixed Penalties (FFFP) is paid into the Scottish Consolidated Fund after being collected by the Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service. No reconciliation takes place for revenue, as the Scottish Government deals with any variation between forecast and receipts through in-year budget management. The SFC does not provide revenue forecasts for FFFP and instead the Scottish Government calculates its own estimates.

The latest Scottish Government 2023-24 revenue forecast for FFFP and the previous revenue forecasts are shown in Table C. 16.

Table C. 16: 2023-24 Revenue Forecast (£ Million)

FFFP	SG Revenue Forecast – Budget 2023-24	25
	SG Revenue Forecast – MTFS 2023	25
	Change	0

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Unlike the devolved taxes, there is only one round of reconciliation for the BGA. Outturn data are normally available three months after the end of the financial year, and the reconciliation is applied to the Block Grant for the financial year thereafter (i.e. two years after the Budget was set).

Table C. 17 shows the indicative BGA reconciliation for 2022-23 which is to apply in 2024-25 once outturn data is available.

Table C. 17: 2022-23 Indicative BGA Reconciliation (£ Million)

FFFP	Forecast BGA – Budget 2022-23	-28
	Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2023	-25
	Forecast Reconciliation to 2024-25 Budget	+3

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Table C. 18 shows the forecast net effect on the budget for 2022-23 FFFP by comparing the latest forecast expenditure and BGAs to the forecast expenditure and BGAs set at the time of the Scottish Budget 2022-23. The final net position will not be confirmed until final outturn is published later in the year.

Table C. 18: Latest Forecast Net Position For 2022-23 FFFP (£ Million)

		Revenues	BGA	Net Position
FFFP	Forecast as of Budget 2022-23	25	-28	-3
	Latest Forecast – MTFS 2023	25	-25	0
	Latest Forecast Net Position	0	0	-3

Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Proceeds of Crime

Revenue seized under the Proceeds of Crime Act 2002 is also subject to a BGA. The basis on which this is carried out is currently the subject of dispute between the Scottish and UK Governments and the BGA remains at -£4m while the dispute remains unresolved.^[45]The Scottish and UK Governments agreed to consider this issue as part of the review of the Fiscal Framework.

Outturn revenue for 2022-23 Proceeds of Crime will be published in winter 2023. The Scottish Government receives all revenues recovered under the Proceeds of Crime Act, however, outturn revenues are hypothecated for spend on community projects.^[46] Due to this hypothecation of funds and the negative £4 million BGA, the net position for the Scottish Budget is negative £4 million while this BGA remains in force.

No reconciliation takes place while the BGA remains the subject of dispute between the Scottish and UK Governments.

Sources of Data

To view the various sources of data for Tax and Social Security that have been used to compile this Annex, please see the data annex in the Fiscal Framework factsheet.

Capital Borrowing

Table C. 19: Capital Borrowing and Repayment Schedule (£ Million)

£million	2017-18	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24
Debt stock at start of Year	607	1,036	1,258	1,617	1,744	1,814	2,026
New In Year Borrowing	450	250	405	200	150	300	250
Principal Repayments	-	7	26	52	60	67	79
Interest Repayments	-	8	11	13	14	16	24
Total Resource Cost	-	15	37	64	74	83	103
Resource Cost of Projected Borrowing	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Projected Total Resource Cost	0	15	37	64	74	83	103
Notional Borrowing Repayments	9.4	20.5	20.5	20.5	20.5	20.5	20.5
Debt Stock at end of Year	1,036	1,258	1,617	1,744	1,814	2,026	2,177
Percentage of Debt Cap	35%	42%	54%	58%	60%	68%	73%
Headroom	1,964	1,742	1,383	1,256	1,186	974	823

£million	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-2030	2031-32
Debt stock at start of Year	2,177	2,312	2,434	2,541	2,634	2,711	2,786
New In Year Borrowing	250	250	250	250	250	250	250
Principal Repayments	88	89	91	92	94	82	70
Interest Repayments	24	23	22	20	19	17	16
Total Resource Cost	112	112	112	112	112	99	86
Resource Cost of Projected Borrowing	15	38	61	84	108	132	156
Projected Total Resource Cost	127	150	173	197	220	231	242
Notional Borrowing Repayments	20.5	20.5	20.5	20.5	20.5	20.5	20.5
Debt Stock at end of Year	2,312	2,434	2,541	2,634	2,711	2,786	2,858
Percentage of Debt Cap	77%	81%	85%	88%	90%	93%	95%
Headroom	688	566	459	366	289	214	142

Projected Borrowing based on Scottish Government Capital Borrowing Policy with interest calculated on forward rates as of 11/05/2023. A 50 basis point premium is applied to all interest rate assumptions

Resource Borrowing

The table below details the Resource Borrowing repayments and debt stock on the basis of existing plans and assumptions.

As chapter 3.11 details the volatility in reconciliations is significant and therefore so is the scope for borrowing plans to shift accordingly. This table should therefore be treated as indicative.

Table C. 20: Resource Borrowing and Repayment Schedule (£ Million)

	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28
Debt Stock at start of Year	207	505	480	414*	596*	446*	286*
New In Year Borrowing	319	47	41*	300*	0*	0*	0*
Principal Repayments	21	72	108	117*	150*	160*	110*
Interest Repayments	0	4	6	6*	16*	14*	10*
Total Resource Cost	21	77	114	124*	166*	174*	120*
Debt Stock at end of Year	505	480	414*	596*	446*	286*	176*
Percentage of Debt Cap	29%	27%	24%	34%	25%	16%	10%
Headroom	1,245	1,270	1,336	1,154	1,304	1,464	1,574

*denotes estimated/volatile figures

Projections are based on forward rates as of 11/05/2023. A 50 basis point premium is applied to all interest rate assumptions