Publication - Research and analysis

Scottish economic insights: September 2026

Published: 15 September 2026
From: Chief Economist
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy
ISBN: 9781807755638

Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.

Part of

Economy: briefs, bulletins and insights

Footnotes

1 Predictions & Insights into the Default Tariff Cap (Price Cap) - Cornwall Insight; Energy Price Cap Predictions & Forecast | EDF; Price Cap Predictions and Changes - British Gas; Energy Price Cap Predictions and Insights | E.ON Next

2 New PM cuts tax on household electricity bills to give breathing space on cost of living - GOV.UK

3 Sources include: Economic Performance: GDP statistics, S&P Global RBS PMI. Labour Market:

Labour Market Statistics, ONS Textkernel and Real Time Information Statistics, and Business Insights and Conditions

Survey (BICS). Trade: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics, S&P Global UK PMI, BICS, Economic Policy Uncertainty

(EPU). Prices: ONS, Bank of England, Food and Agricultural Organisation of the UN. UK Public Finances: ONS.

Outlook: S&P Global RBS PMI, Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator, Economic Policy Uncertainty.

4 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

5 GDP monthly estimate, UK - Office for National Statistics

6 Business and innovation: statistics - gov.scot

7 Scottish Business Sentiment Index - gov.scot

8 The BSI remains in development, and we welcome further comments from users on how best to present the results.

9 For context, Scotland’s real-terms international goods exports are 17% (£4.6 billion) lower in 2025 than 2019, with exports to the EU being 22% (£2.5 billion) lower in real terms. Source: Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q4 2025.

10 Trade - State of the economy: May 2022 - gov.scot

11 Primarily the way we incorporate uncertainty: our confidence sets now follow Firpo & Possebom, 2018. We also estimate impacts by SITC Section, which highlighted the disproportionate impact on agrifood. Note also that HMRC changed their trade data collection post-EU Exit. This, in addition to various delays and adjustments to border control processes, may have impacted UK–EU trade data.

12 We define this as the sum of SITC Rev. 4 Sections 0, 2 and 4.

13 As of March 2026, the OBR forecasts that total UK exports and imports will be 15% lower in the long run, with non-EU FTAs having no “material impact”, and any positive effect from these being gradual. (Office for Budget Responsibility, 2025)

14 (Kaya, Liadze, Low, Juanino, & Millard, 2023). NiGEM Topical Feature - Autumn 2023. Revisiting the Effect of Brexit.

15 Springford and Spisak (2026). The cost of Brexit, ten years on: The impact of leaving the customs union and single market

on UK trade. Centre for European Reform.

16 Springford (2024) finds that UK goods exports were 13% lower in 2023 compared to a synthetic control counterfactual, with services exports faring better. The author also notes that intra-EU goods trade has boomed post-EU Exit, meaning the UK has potentially missed out on additional EU trade. This impact was consistent with a 4–5% reduction in GDP. Bloom et al (2025), in an NBER working paper, estimate that UK GDP reduced by 6–8%, accumulating gradually over time. Alabrese et al (2026) find that Scotland faced a 9% reduction in real GDP by 2022, the largest impact within the UK.