Inflation Adjusted HMRC Regional Trade Statistics for Scotland Q4 2025

Key findings 

This data covers real terms trade in goods during the 12 months up to the fourth quarter of 2018 to the 12 months up to the fourth quarter of 2025. Trade in services as well as trade in oil and gas are excluded. The analysis is designated as ‘official statistics in development,’ which means that the data has a wider degree of uncertainty and should be treated with some caution.

Total Trade 

• When comparing 2025 with the previous year, the value of Scotland’s international goods exports decreased by 4% to £24.0 billion, while Scotland’s goods imports increased by 8% to £24.9 billion. Overall, Scotland’s total international trade (imports + exports) in goods increased by 2%. 

Commodities 

• The largest negative change in international exports was in Drink which accounted for around a fifth of the total decline. Specialised machinery and Medicinal & pharmaceutical products also saw large declines. 

• Drink is Scotland’s top export, accounting for around 20% of the value of Scotland’s international goods exports and 16% of EU goods exports in 2025. 

Destinations 

• Over the longer term, Scotland’s international goods exports have decreased by 15% in 2025 compared to the equivalent period in 2018. Over the same period Scotland’s exports to the EU have decreased by 22%. 

• Over 2025 the value of Scotland’s goods exports to the EU decreased by 4% to £9.2 billion. The largest negative change was in Drink which accounted for around a fifth of the total decline. Chemical materials & products and Fish & shellfish also saw large declines. 
   

User Survey 

We encourage users of these statistics to provide feedback by completing a short survey, which we will keep open while we consider the use of chained volume measures in this series of reports: 

Scottish Government Regional Trade in Goods Report - User Survey (office.com)