Scottish economic insights: March 2026

Footnotes

1 Predictions & Insights into the Default Tariff Cap (Price Cap)

2 Understatement of the year • Resolution Foundation

3 Middle East Conflict: Macroeconomic Impacts of Rising Oil and Gas Prices - NIESR

4 Sources include: Economic Performance: GDP statistics, S&P Global RBS PMI. Labour Market:

Labour Market Statistics, ONS Textkernel and Real Time Information Statistics, and Business Insights and Conditions

Survey (BICS). Trade: HMRC Regional Trade Statistics, S&P Global UK PMI, BICS, Economic Policy Uncertainty

(EPU). Prices: ONS, Bank of England, Food and Agricultural Organisation of the UN. UK Public Finances: ONS.

Outlook: S&P Global RBS PMI, Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator, Economic Policy Uncertainty.

5 Economy statistics - gov.scot, GDP first quarterly estimate, UK - Office for National Statistics

6 Natural capital - importance to the Scottish economy: research - gov.scot

7 Importance of Natural Capital to the Scottish Economy – Regional Analysis - gov.scot

8 Importance of Natural Capital to the Scottish Economy – Marine and Terrestrial - gov.scot

9 The top industries reliant on natural capital are ordered by magnitude of output instead of employment. Industries might have high output but low employment, or vice versa. e.g. food and beverage services and education are in the top 10 for employment reliance, but not output reliance.

10 The share of economic natural capital value that cannot be replaced by human intervention relates to the additional business reliance on wider ecosystem services not traded on the market, like regulating and cultural services e.g. for healthcare services nature benefits are hard to substitute for.

11 Supporting documents - Importance of Natural Capital to the Scottish Economy – Regional Analysis - gov.scot

12 Importance of Natural Capital to the Scottish Economy – Marine and Terrestrial - gov.scot

13 ENCORE

14 Regional Growth Tracker report for January 2026 | Royal Bank of Scotland

15 Business and innovation: statistics - gov.scot

16 Scottish Business Monitor Q4 2025 | FAI

17 Quarterly Economic Indicator - Scottish ChambersScottish Chambers

18 Scottish Business Sentiment Index - gov.scot

19 Labour market statistics - gov.scot

20 Regional Growth Tracker report for January 2026 | Royal Bank of Scotland

21 Average weekly earnings in Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

22 Agent's summary of business conditions - March 2026 | Bank of England

23 Request to suspend APS accreditation – Office for Statistics Regulation

24 Statistics Statement from the Chief Statistician on the Annual Population Survey - Statistics

25 The Scottish Government’s Quality Assessment of the Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey data for Scotland - gov.scot

26 Changes to Labour Market Statistics in Scotland: What You Need to Know - gov.scot

27 Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts January 2026

28 Get Britain’s Stats Working • Resolution Foundation

29 Scottish economic insights: April 2025 - gov.scot

30 The RTI employment rate is now estimated at 59.2% for this period, due to revisions to the RTI backseries.

31 Labour Force Survey quality update - Office for National Statistics

32 Labour market overview, UK - Office for National Statistics

33 Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

34 Changes to energy price cap between 1 April and 30 June 2026 | Ofgem

35 FAO Food Price Index | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

36 Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator : Monthly Data - gov.scot

37 Bank Rate maintained at 3.75% - March 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes | Bank of England

38 Effective interest rates - A visual summary of our data | Bank of England

39 GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2025 Quarter 3 (July to September) - gov.scot

40 World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces

41 Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2026 - Office for Budget Responsibility

42 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – January 2026 | Scottish Fiscal Commission

43 Briefing paper No.9: Forecasting productivity - Office for Budget Responsibility

44 Monetary Policy Report - February 2026 | Bank of England

45 World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026: Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces