Annex F: Fiscal Framework – Data
This Annex sets out the implications of the Fiscal Framework for the Scottish Budget. More detail on how the Fiscal Framework operates is set out in the Fiscal Framework Technical Note[76]. This includes the evolution of the fiscal powers of the Scottish Parliament, the timelines for reconciliations and how they affect the Scottish Budget, the limits of the borrowing powers and Scotland Reserve, and the Fiscal Framework Review.[77]
This Annex outlines the latest BGAs which were published alongside the UK Spring Forecast 2025, and as updated to reflect the anticipated BGA funding resulting from the UK Government’s policy change on Winter Fuel Payment, and the SFC’s latest revenue and expenditure forecasts, which were published on 29 May 2025 and as updated alongside this Medium-Term Financial Strategy.
Tax
Table F.01 shows the latest forecasts for tax revenues from the SFC and the latest BGA estimates following the UK Spring Forecast 2025.
Forecasts of future years provide an indication of the level of revenues that the SFC anticipates, but these figures will not be used to set future budgets, which will draw upon updated SFC forecasts.
Table F.01: Forecasts of tax revenues and Block Grant Adjustments
| Income Tax |
2023-24 |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Revenue |
17,072 |
18,992 |
20,495 |
21,901 |
23,139 |
24,186 |
25,288 |
26,428 |
| BGA |
(16,468) |
(18,431) |
(19,879) |
(20,830) |
(21,614) |
(22,287) |
(23,107) |
N/A |
| Difference |
604 |
562 |
616 |
1,072 |
1,526 |
1,899 |
2,182 |
N/A |
| LBTT1 |
2023-24 |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Revenue |
784 |
898 |
1,029 |
1,093 |
1,138 |
1,187 |
1,240 |
1,297 |
| BGA |
(526) |
(614) |
(637) |
(773) |
(892) |
(1,010) |
(1,096) |
N/A |
| Difference |
259 |
284 |
393 |
320 |
246 |
177 |
144 |
N/A |
| SLfT1 |
2023-24 |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Revenue |
68 |
53 |
38 |
24 |
24 |
25 |
25 |
26 |
| BGA |
(74) |
(76) |
(60) |
(55) |
(35) |
(34) |
(36) |
N/A |
| Difference |
(6) |
(23) |
(23) |
(31) |
(10) |
(9) |
(11) |
N/A |
| Totals |
2023-24 |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Revenue |
17,925 |
19,943 |
21,562 |
23,019 |
24,301 |
25,398 |
26,554 |
27,751 |
| BGA |
(17,068) |
(19,120) |
(20,576) |
(21,657) |
(22,540) |
(23,331) |
(24,239) |
N/A |
| Difference |
857 |
823 |
986 |
1,361 |
1,762 |
2,067 |
2,314 |
N/A |
Note 1: The 2023-24 LBTT and SLfT revenue and Block Grant Adjustment are outturn figures.
Note 2: Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Social Security
Table F.02 shows the SFC’s latest expenditure forecasts for devolved social security benefits and the latest BGA estimates following the UK Spring Statement 2025.
Table F.02: Forecasts of devolved social security benefits expenditure and corresponding Block Grant Adjustments (figures in £million)
| Attendance Allowance |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Expenditure |
(759) |
(844) |
(917) |
(961) |
(999) |
(1,038) |
(1,078) |
| BGA |
750 |
803 |
859 |
890 |
920 |
955 |
N/A |
| Difference |
(9) |
(41) |
(58) |
(71) |
(78) |
(83) |
N/A |
| Personal Independence Payment |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Expenditure |
(3,120) |
(3,590) |
(4,020) |
(4,355) |
(4,680) |
(5,040) |
(5,418) |
| BGA |
2,980 |
3,271 |
3,608 |
3,787 |
3,982 |
4,270 |
N/A |
| Difference |
(140) |
(320) |
(412) |
(568) |
(698) |
(770) |
N/A |
| Disability Living Allowance |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Expenditure |
(942) |
(979) |
(1,012) |
(1,010) |
(999) |
(991) |
(983) |
| BGA |
945 |
984 |
1,031 |
1,064 |
1,078 |
1,065 |
N/A |
| Difference |
2 |
5 |
19 |
54 |
79 |
74 |
N/A |
| Carer's Allowance 1 |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Expenditure |
(389) |
(452) |
(505) |
(525) |
(545) |
(570) |
(594) |
| BGA |
400 |
422 |
451 |
460 |
466 |
480 |
N/A |
| Difference |
11 |
(30) |
(54) |
(65) |
(80) |
(91) |
N/A |
| Industrial Injuries Disablement Scheme |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Expenditure |
(82) |
(83) |
(83) |
(83) |
(81) |
(79) |
(77) |
| BGA |
86 |
84 |
83 |
81 |
79 |
76 |
N/A |
| Difference |
4 |
1 |
- |
(2) |
(2) |
(3) |
N/A |
| Severe Disablement Allowance |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Expenditure |
(5) |
(5) |
(4) |
(3) |
(3) |
(3) |
(2) |
| BGA |
6 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
N/A |
| Difference |
1 |
1 |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
N/A |
| Cold Weather Payment |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Expenditure |
(29) |
(28) |
(30) |
(31) |
(32) |
(33) |
(34) |
| BGA |
4 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
N/A |
| Difference |
(25) |
(22) |
(24) |
(25) |
(26) |
(27) |
N/A |
| Winter Fuel Payments 3 |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Expenditure |
(29) |
(151) |
(158) |
(160) |
(166) |
(174) |
(182) |
| BGA |
30 |
150 |
149 |
147 |
146 |
147 |
N/A |
| Difference |
- |
(0) |
(9) |
(13) |
(20) |
(27) |
N/A |
| Total Social Security |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Expenditure |
(5,356) |
(6,132) |
(6,730) |
(7,129) |
(7,505) |
(7,928) |
(8,298) |
| BGA |
5,200 |
5,725 |
6,191 |
6,440 |
6,680 |
7,001 |
N/A |
| Difference |
(156) |
(407) |
(538) |
(689) |
(826) |
(927) |
N/A |
Note 1: Carer’s Allowance Expenditure Forecast does not include Carer’s Allowance Supplement expenditure.
Note 2: There are minor differences in the methodology used to calculate the SFC’s spending forecasts and the BGA forecasts, which are based on expenditure outturn and OBR forecasts, so comparisons should be interpreted with caution.
Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Note 3: Winter Fuel Payment BGAs are based on the Spring Statement 2025 BGAs and include anticipated BGA funding of £120 million per annum from the UK Government’s Winter Fuel Payment policy change.
Reconciliations and implications for the Scottish Budget
The forecasts for Scottish tax revenues and social security expenditure, and the corresponding BGAs, are based on the latest available information at the time of the Budget. Once outturn data are available, reconciliations are made to the Scottish Budget to ensure that the funding available ultimately corresponds to actual revenues and the BGAs based on the outturn data.
Reconciliations are made for both the revenues and the BGA for Income Tax. For Fully Devolved Taxes (LBTT and Scottish Landfill Tax) and Social Security, reconciliations are only made to the BGA element of funding.
Income Tax
For Scottish Income Tax, outturn data is normally available around 16 months after the end of the financial year. Given this long lag of availability of outturn data, the Income Tax revenue and BGA are fixed for three years from the time the Budget is set. A single reconciliation is then applied to the Budget three financial years after the Budget is set, e.g. the reconciliation for 2022-23 Income Tax was applied to the 2025-26 Scottish Budget. Updated forecasts in the interim have no direct impact on Scottish Government funding.
Outturn data for 2023-24 Income Tax is due to be published in Summer 2025, which will allow the Scottish and UK Governments to calculate and agree the final 2023-24 Income Tax reconciliation, which will be applied to the 2026-27 Scottish Budget.
Table F.03 shows that the latest forecast 2023-24 Income Tax reconciliation is positive £279 million. The final position will not be known until outturn receipts are available in Summer 2025.
Table F.03: Forecast Income Tax reconciliation applying to 2026-27 Budget (figures in £million)
| 2023-24 Income Tax |
Revenues |
BGA |
Net Position |
Forecast Reconciliation |
| Forecast as of 2023-24 Budget |
15,810 |
(15,485) |
+325 |
N/A |
| Outturn |
17,072 |
(16,468) |
+604 |
+279 |
| Outturn against forecast |
1,262 |
(983) |
N/A |
N/A |
Figures may not sum due to rounding
The potential scale of the reconciliations applying to the 2027-28 and 2028-29 Scottish Budgets are shown in tables F.04 and F.05 using the latest forecasts.
Table F.04: Forecast Income Tax reconciliation applying to 2027-28 Budget (figures in £million)
| 2024-25 Income Tax |
Revenues |
BGA |
Net Position |
Forecast Reconciliation |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
18,844 |
(17,432) |
+1,412 |
N/A |
| Latest forecast |
18,992 |
(18,431) |
+562 |
(851) |
| Change |
148 |
(999) |
N/A |
N/A |
Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Table F.05: Forecast Income Tax reconciliation applying to 2028-29 Budget (figures in £million)
| 2025-26 Income Tax |
Revenues |
BGA |
Net Position |
Forecast Reconciliation |
| Forecast as of 2025-26 Budget |
20,477 |
(19,639) |
+838 |
N/A |
| Latest forecast |
(20,495) |
(19,879) |
+616 |
(222) |
| Change |
18 |
(240) |
N/A |
N/A |
Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Based on the latest forecasts, the reconciliation to the 2027-28 Scottish Budget for 2024-25 Income Tax is forecast to be negative £851 million. A reconciliation of negative £222 million is expected to apply to the Scottish Budget 2028-29 to account for 2025-26 Income Tax.
However, these forecasts are not certain and the final position will not be known for sure until outturn receipts are available for 2024-25 in Summer 2026, and for 2025-26 in Summer 2027.
Fully Devolved Taxes
Revenue Scotland manages and collects Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) and Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT) and these revenue streams feed in to the Scottish Budget as they are collected. There is no reconciliation required for these revenues; the Scottish Government manages any variance between what was forecast and actual revenues as part of its in-year budget management process. The latest 2025-26 revenue forecasts for LBTT and SLfT and the previous revenue forecasts are shown in Table F.06.
Table F.06: 2025-26 Revenue Forecast (figures in £million)
| LBTT |
Revenue Forecast |
| SFC Revenue Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
1,019 |
| SFC Revenue Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
1,029 |
| Change |
+11 |
| SLfT |
Revenue Forecast |
| SFC Revenue Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
40 |
| SFC Revenue Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
38 |
| Change |
(3) |
Figures may not sum due to rounding
The BGAs for these taxes are reconciled in two stages. An in-year reconciliation is made within the same financial year. This is usually on the basis of OBR forecasts produced alongside the UK Autumn Budget. The forecast in-year reconciliations for 2025-26 LBTT and SLfT are shown in table F.07.
Table F.07: 2025-26 forecast in-year BGA reconciliations (figures in £million)
| LBTT |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget December 2024 |
(660) |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
(637) |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
24 |
| SLfT |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget December 2024 |
(57) |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
(60) |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
(4) |
Figures may not sum due to rounding.
As set out in Table F.08, the forecast net effect on the 2025-26 Scottish Budget of the latest fully devolved revenue forecasts, when compared to the forecast in-year BGA reconciliations, is positive £28 million, (comprising positive £34 million for LBTT and negative £7 million for SLfT).
Table F.08: Change in net position for 2025-26 Scottish Budget
| (Figures in £million) |
Forecast In-Year BGA Reconciliation |
Change in SFC revenue forecast from 2025-26 Scottish Budget |
Forecast Net Position |
| LBTT |
24 |
11 |
34 |
| SLfT |
(4) |
(3) |
(7) |
| Total |
20 |
8 |
28 |
Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Outturn data becomes available in the Autumn following the end of each financial year. Using these outturn figures, a final reconciliation will be applied to the Block Grant in the financial year two years after the Budget was set. Table F.09 shows the forecast final reconciliations for 2024-25 LBTT and SLfT BGAs applying to the 2026-27 Scottish Budget.
Table F.09: 2024-25 forecast final BGA reconciliation
| LBTT |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
(574) |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
(614) |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget |
(40) |
| SLfT |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
(75) |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
(76) |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget |
(1) |
Note 1: Ultimately, the final BGA reconciliation will calculate the difference between the in-year forecast of the BGA (used to calculate the in-year reconciliation) and the outturn data (when available).
Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Table F.10 shows the forecast net effect on the budget for 2024-25 LBTT and SLfT by comparing the latest forecast revenues and BGAs to the forecast revenues and BGAs set at the time of the 2024-25 Scottish Budget. The final net position will not be confirmed until final outturn is published later in the year.
Table F.10: Latest forecast net position for 2024-25 LBTT and SLfT (figures in £million)
| LBTT |
Revenues |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
730 |
(521) |
+209 |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
898 |
(614) |
+284 |
| Latest change in Forecast Net Position |
167 |
(92) |
+75 |
| SLfT |
Revenues |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
58 |
(84) |
(25) |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
53 |
(76) |
(23) |
| Latest change in Forecast Net Position |
(5) |
8 |
+3 |
Figures may not sum due to rounding
Social Security
The latest 2025-26 expenditure forecasts for devolved Social Security benefits that have a corresponding BGA, and the previous expenditure forecasts, are shown in Table F.11.
Table F.11: 2025-26 Social Security expenditure forecast (figures in £million)
| Pension Age Disability Payment |
2025-26 Forecast |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
(834) |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(844) |
| Change |
(11) |
| Adult Disability Payment |
2025-26 Forecast |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
(3,605) |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(3,590) |
| Change |
+14 |
| Scottish Adult Disability Living Allowance and Child Disability Payment |
2025-26 Forecast |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
(1,012) |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(979) |
| Change |
+32 |
| Carer Support Payment |
2025-26 Forecast |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
(459) |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(452) |
| Change |
+7 |
| Employment Injury Assistance |
2025-26 Forecast |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
(83) |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(83) |
| Change |
- |
| Severe Disablement Allowance |
2025-26 Forecast |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
(4) |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(5) |
| Change |
- |
| Winter Heating Payment |
2025-26 Forecast |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
(28) |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(28) |
| Change |
- |
| Pension Age Winter Heating Payment |
2025-26 Forecast |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
(101) |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(151) |
| Change |
(50) |
| Total |
2025-26 Forecast |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – 2025-26 Budget |
(6,125) |
| SFC Expenditure Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(6,132) |
| Change |
(7) |
Figures may not sum due to rounding.
As with the fully devolved taxes, the BGAs for devolved benefits are reconciled in two stages. An in-year reconciliation is made within the same financial year. This is usually on the basis of OBR forecasts produced alongside the UK Autumn Budget. The forecast in-year reconciliations to the 2025-26 Social Security BGAs are shown in Table F.12. However, the spending decisions announced by the UK Government at the UKSR on 11 June 2025 are not factored into the BGA funding referenced throughout this chapter. These changes will be reflected in updated OBR forecasts alongside the Autumn UK Government fiscal event, at which point updated BGAs will be calculated.
Table F.12: 2025-26 forecast in-year BGA reconciliation for devolved Social Security benefits (figures in £million)
| Attendance Allowance |
2025-26 Forecast |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
783 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
803 |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
+20 |
| Personal Independence Payment |
2025-26 Forecast |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
3,290 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
3,271 |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
(20) |
| Disability Living Allowance |
2025-26 Forecast |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
976 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
984 |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
+8 |
| Carer’s Allowance |
2025-26 Forecast |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
420 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
422 |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
+2 |
| Industrial Injuries Disablement Scheme |
2025-26 Forecast |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
84 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
84 |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
- |
| Severe Disablement Allowance |
2025-26 Forecast |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
5 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
5 |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
- |
| Cold Weather Payment |
2025-26 Forecast |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
6 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
6 |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
- |
| Winter Fuel Payment |
2025-26 Forecast |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
31 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 plus anticipated BGA funding from UK Government policy change |
150 |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
+119 |
| Total S ocial S ecurity |
2025-26 Forecast |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
5,596 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
5,725 |
| Forecast In-year reconciliation to 2025-26 Budget |
+129 |
Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Table F.13 sets out the net effect on the 2025-26 Scottish Budget of the latest total devolved social security expenditure forecasts when compared to the total forecast in-year BGA reconciliations, is positive £122 million.
Table F.13: Change in net position for 2025-26 Scottish Budget (figures in £million)
|
Forecast In-Year BGA Reconciliation |
Change in SFC expenditure forecast from 2025-26 Scottish Budget |
Net Position |
| Total social security benefits with a BGA1 |
+129 |
(7) |
+122 |
1) Carer’s Allowance, Attendance Allowance, Disability Living Allowance, Personal Independence Payment, Industrial Injuries Disablement Scheme, Severe Disablement Allowance, Cold Weather Payment and Winter Fuel Payment.
Figures may not sum due to rounding
Outturn data becomes available in the autumn following the end of each financial year. Using these outturn figures, a final reconciliation is applied to the Block Grant in the financial year two years after the Budget was set. Table F.14 shows the forecast final reconciliation for the 2024-25 Social Security BGAs applying to the 2026-27 Scottish Budget.
Table F.14: Forecast Social Security 2024-25 final BGA reconciliations (figures in £million)
| Attendance Allowance |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
740 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
750 |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget1 |
+9 |
| Personal Independence Payment |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
2,984 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
2,980 |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget1 |
(4) |
| Disability Living Allowance |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
932 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
945 |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget1 |
+13 |
| Carer’s Allowance |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
397 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
400 |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget1 |
+4 |
| Industrial Injuries Disablement Scheme |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
86 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
86 |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget1 |
- |
| Severe Disablement Allowance |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
6 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
6 |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget1 |
- |
| Cold Weather Payment |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
6 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
4 |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget1 |
(2) |
| Winter Fuel Payment |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
32 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
30 |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget1 |
(2) |
| Total Social Security |
Reconciliation |
| Forecast BGA – UK Budget October 2024 |
5,182 |
| Forecast BGA – UK Spring Statement 2025 |
5,200 |
| Forecast Reconciliation to 2026-27 Budget1 |
+18 |
Note 1: Ultimately, the final BGA reconciliation will calculate the difference between the in-year forecast of the BGA (used to calculate the in-year reconciliation) and the outturn data (when available).
Figures may not sum due to rounding.
Table F.15 shows the forecast net effect on the Scottish Budget for 2024-25 Social Security devolved benefits by comparing the latest forecast expenditure and BGAs to the forecast expenditure and BGAs set at the time of the 2024-25 Scottish Budget. The final net position will not be confirmed until final outturn is published later in the year.
Table F.15: Latest forecast net position for 2024-25 Social Security expenditure on devolved benefits1 ( figures in £million)
| Attendance Allowance |
Expenditure |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
(755) |
724 |
(30) |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(759) |
750 |
(9) |
| Latest Forecast Net Position |
(4) |
+25 |
+21 |
| Personal Independence Payment |
Expenditure |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
(3,226) |
2,927 |
(300) |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(3,120) |
2,980 |
(140) |
| Latest Forecast Net Position |
+107 |
+53 |
+160 |
| Disability Living Allowance |
Expenditure |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
(870) |
877 |
7 |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(942) |
945 |
2 |
| Latest Forecast Net Position |
(72) |
+68 |
(5) |
| Carer’s Allowance |
Expenditure |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
(412) |
389 |
(22) |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(389) |
400 |
11 |
| Latest Forecast Net Position |
+23 |
+11 |
+34 |
| Industrial Injuries Disablement Scheme |
Expenditure |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
(87) |
85 |
(2) |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(82) |
86 |
4 |
| Latest Forecast Net Position |
+4 |
+1 |
+5 |
| Severe Disablement Allowance |
Expenditure |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
(5) |
5 |
- |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(5) |
6 |
1 |
| Latest Forecast Net Position |
- |
- |
- |
| Cold Weather Payment |
Expenditure |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
(24) |
6 |
(19) |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(29) |
4 |
(25) |
| Latest Forecast Net Position |
(5) |
(2) |
(6) |
| Winter Fuel Payment |
Expenditure |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
(180) |
178 |
(2) |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(29) |
30 |
- |
| Latest Forecast Net Position |
+151 |
(148) |
+3 |
| Total Social Security |
Expenditure |
BGA |
Net Position |
| Forecast as of 2024-25 Budget |
(5,559) |
5,191 |
(368) |
| Latest Forecast – MTFS 2025 |
(5,356) |
5,200 |
(156) |
| Latest Forecast Net Position |
+203 |
+9 |
+212 |
Note 1: There are minor differences in the methodology used to calculate the SFC's spending forecasts and the BGA forecasts, which are based on expenditure outturn and OBR forecasts, so comparisons should be interpreted with caution.
Non-Tax Revenue
Fines, Forfeitures and Fixed Penalties
Revenue from Fines, Forfeitures and Fixed Penalties (FFFP) is paid into the Scottish Consolidated Fund after being collected by the Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service. No reconciliation takes place for revenue, as the Scottish Government deals with any variation between forecast and receipts through in-year budget management. The SFC does not provide revenue forecasts for FFFP and instead the Scottish Government forecasts FFFP revenue at £25 million at each Scottish Budget.
Prior to the 2023 Fiscal Framework Review, FFFP BGAs were based on OBR forecasts and reconciled to outturn. Following the review, BGAs are set at £24.99 million each year. No reconciliation is made for outturn. The net position between the £24.99 million BGA for 2024-25 FFFP and the outturn BGA (either provisional or final depending on data availability) will be published in the next Scottish Government Fiscal Framework Outturn Report.
Proceeds of Crime
Revenue seized under the Proceeds of Crime Act 2002 is also subject to a BGA. The basis on which this is carried out is currently the subject of dispute between the Scottish and UK Governments and the BGA remains at -£4 million while the dispute remains unresolved.[78]
Outturn revenue for 2024-25 Proceeds of Crime will be published in Winter 2025. The Scottish Government receives all revenues recovered under the Proceeds of Crime Act, however, outturn revenues are hypothecated for spend on community projects.[79] Due to this hypothecation of funds and the negative £4 million BGA, the net position for the Scottish Budget is negative £4 million while this BGA remains in force.
Sources of Data
To view the various sources of data for Tax and Social Security that have been used to compile this Annex, please see the data annex in the Fiscal Framework factsheet .[80]
Capital Borrowing
Table F.16: Capital Borrowing and repayment schedule (figures in £million)
|
2017-18 |
2018- 19 |
2019- 20 |
2020- 21 |
2021- 22 |
2022- 23 |
2023- 24 |
2024- 25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Debt stock at start of Year |
607 |
1,036 |
1,258 |
1,617 |
1,744 |
1,814 |
2,026 |
2,227 |
2,245 |
2,576 |
2,716 |
2,835 |
2,936 |
3,032 |
| New Borrowing in year (incurred) |
450 |
250 |
405 |
200 |
150 |
300 |
300 |
139 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| New Borrowing in year (forecast) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
472 |
300 |
300 |
300 |
300 |
300 |
| Principal Repayments |
- |
7 |
26 |
52 |
60 |
67 |
79 |
100 |
120 |
129 |
132 |
135 |
125 |
115 |
| Interest Repayments |
- |
8 |
11 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
24 |
34 |
39 |
37 |
34 |
31 |
28 |
25 |
| Resource Cost of Borrowing Incurred |
- |
15 |
37 |
64 |
74 |
83 |
103 |
135 |
160 |
166 |
166 |
166 |
153 |
140 |
| Principal Repayments |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
11 |
29 |
43 |
59 |
75 |
| Interest Repayments |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
21 |
38 |
53 |
68 |
82 |
| Resource Cost of Forecast Borrowing |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
32 |
6 6 |
96 |
127 |
157 |
| Projected Total Resource Cost |
- |
15 |
37 |
64 |
74 |
83 |
103 |
135 |
160 |
19 8 |
23 2 |
26 2 |
28 0 |
29 7 |
| Notional Borrowing Repayments |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
21 |
| Debt Stock at end of Year |
1,036 |
1,258 |
1,617 |
1,744 |
1,814 |
2,026 |
2,227 |
2,245 |
2,576 |
2,716 |
2,835 |
2,936 |
3,032 |
3,121 |
| Dept Cap |
3,000 |
3,000 |
3,000 |
3,000 |
3,000 |
3,000 |
3,000 |
3,050 |
3,145 |
3,249 |
3,316 |
3,380 |
3,444 |
3,513 |
| Percentage of Debt Cap |
35% |
42% |
54% |
58% |
60% |
68% |
74% |
74% |
82% |
84% |
86% |
87% |
88% |
89% |
| Headroom |
1,964 |
1,742 |
1,383 |
1,256 |
1,186 |
974 |
773 |
805 |
569 |
533 |
481 |
444 |
412 |
391 |
Resource Borrowing
Table F.17: Resource Borrowing and repayment schedule (figures in £million)
|
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
2023-24 |
2024-25 |
2025-26 |
2026-27 |
2027-28 |
2028-29 |
2029-30 |
2030-31 |
| Debt stock at start of Year |
- |
207 |
505 |
480 |
476 |
353 |
219 |
103 |
702 |
837 |
683 |
| New Borrowing in year (incurred) |
207 |
319 |
47 |
104 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| New Borrowing in year (forecast) |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
663 |
222 |
- |
- |
| Principal Repayments |
- |
21 |
72 |
108 |
123 |
135 |
116 |
64 |
27 |
11 |
- |
| Interest Repayments |
- |
0 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
- |
| Resource Cost of Borrowing Incurred |
- |
21 |
77 |
114 |
132 |
142 |
121 |
67 |
28 |
12 |
- |
| Principal Repayments |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
59 |
143 |
170 |
| Interest Repayments |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
29 |
39 |
32 |
| Resource Cost of Forecast Borrowing |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
88 |
1 81 |
202 |
| Projected Total Resource Cost |
- |
21 |
77 |
114 |
132 |
142 |
121 |
67 |
117 |
1 93 |
202 |
| Debt Stock at end of Year |
207 |
505 |
480 |
476 |
353 |
219 |
103 |
702 |
837 |
683 |
513 |
| Dept Cap |
1,750 |
1,750 |
1,750 |
1,750 |
1,779 |
1,834 |
1,895 |
1,934 |
1,972 |
2,009 |
2,049 |
| Percentage of Debt Cap |
12% |
29% |
27% |
27% |
20% |
12% |
5% |
36% |
42% |
34% |
25% |
| Headroom |
1,543 |
1,245 |
1,270 |
1,274 |
1,426 |
1,616 |
1,793 |
1,232 |
1,135 |
1,326 |
1,536 |
