Scotland's fiscal outlook: medium-term financial strategy

Annex D: Pay and Workforce Factsheet

This annex provides an overview of the size of Scotland’s devolved public sector workforce, and the estimated costs associated with it.

Public sector workforce

Every quarter, the Scottish Government publishes statistics on the number of people employed in the public sector. This is based on administrative records and surveys of individual public sector bodies carried out by the Scottish Government and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).^[68]

The latest available data^[69] shows that in March 2025, there were 550,000 people employed in the devolved public sector in Scotland, see Figure D.01.

The devolved public sector workforce headcount increased by 0.2 per cent over the year. This increase is largely due to an increase in NHS employment of 1,160^[70] (0.6 per cent).

Recruitment controls for all non-essential frontline posts across the devolved civil service and wider public bodies came into effect in August 2024.

Source: Infographic taken from Public Sector Employment in Scotland Statistics for Quarter 1 2025.^[71] Numbers rounded to the nearest 100.

On a full time equivalent (FTE) basis^[72], there were 469,100 people employed in the devolved public sector in March 2025.^[73]

Local Government and the NHS account for 45.6 per cent and 34.4 per cent of the devolved public sector on an FTE basis, see Table D.01 below.

Public sector paybill

There is currently no statistical publication setting out the financial costs of Scotland’s devolved public sector workforce.

Based on internal data collected at the beginning of 2025, the public sector paybill including Local Government is estimated to be around £27.4 billion in the financial year 2024 to 2025, see Table D.02 below.

Excluding Local Government and teachers, the paybill for the financial year 2024 to 2025 is estimated to be around £16.7 billion.

As expected, the NHS makes up the largest part of the paybill for the financial year 2024 to 2025, accounting for an estimated £11.6 billion of spending.

In 2024 to 2025, pay deals were around £600 million greater than planned under the public sector pay metric, recognising the Scottish Government’s principles of fair, affordable and sustainable pay for the devolved public sector workforce in Scotland.

Multi-year pay deals provide certainty for the public sector workforce and an opportunity for the Scottish Government, employers and Trade Unions to plan for and transform our public services to improve outcomes for the people of Scotland. As of 13 June 2025, not all workforces within the devolved public sector have agreed pay deals for 2025 to 2026 or beyond. Where pay deals have been agreed^[74], costs are estimated to be around £122 million higher, compared to the costs expected under the Public Sector Pay Policy published in December 2024. This assumes workforce levels remain similar to the previous year. It is expected that portfolios agreeing pay deals that exceed the pay metrics will deliver efficiencies through reform to ensure the paybill remains sustainable in the medium term and all deals are based on fairness and affordability. Accounting for these settled pay deals, the estimated paybill for the financial year 2025 to 2026 is estimated at around £29.0 billion.

Sources and Limitations

The data was primarily collected in March 2025 from Scottish Government departments, reflecting a “point in time”’ and will not therefore reflect subsequent changes. Paybill estimates include on-costs, such as employer National Insurance Contributions.

There is also a degree of uncertainty about this cost estimate, given it covers a diverse range of workforces with different pay policies and a variety of public bodies. This might result in differences in how organisations estimate and report their full-time equivalent staffing and the associated staff costs.

Information on the Local Government estimate is presented separately. Councils operate independently of central government and are accountable to their electorates for the services they provide. The most recently available Local Government Finance Statistics^[75] publication lists employee costs at £10.3 billion in the financial year 2023 to 2024. Local Government Finance Statistics for 2024 to 2025 will be published in February 2026. The figures presented in the table below are therefore estimated by applying average pay increases for the financial year 2024 to 2025 to the published outturn for the previous year.

The paybill data presented here remain subject to testing of quality, volatility and ability to meet user needs. Improving the data collection and the robustness of paybill estimates and publishing this in a transparent way is an ongoing programme of analytical activity.

Detailed Tables

Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland Statistics for Quarter 1 2025, table 5.

Numbers are rounded to the nearest 100 and may not sum due to rounding.

Table D .02 : Estimated paybill for financial year 2024 to 2025

Numbers are rounded to the nearest 100 and may not sum due to rounding.

Source: Internal Scottish Government data

* These are estimates based on Scottish Government modelling.