Scotland's Climate Change Plan – 2026-2040

This Climate Change Plan (CCP) sets out the policies and proposals the Scottish Government will take forward to enable our carbon budgets to be met between 2026-2040.


Footnotes

1 Ember Energy: China Energy Transition Review 2025

2 The Climate Change Committee (CCC) provides independent advice to the UK and devolved governments on issues relating to climate change mitigation and adaptation. The most recent CCC advice to the Scottish Government was received in May 2025: Scotland's Carbon Budgets

3 The Baseline period uses a 1995 base-year for F-Gas emissions, and 1990 for all other greenhouse gases.

4 It is worth noting that the sector definitions used in this plan have changed slightly since the publication of the previous Climate Change Plan, in line with changes to the legislation as part of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2019. Sector chapters, and the analytical annexes, set out the sources covered by each sector.

5 The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 distinguishes between ‘policies’ and ‘proposals’. Policies are where it is possible to clearly set out a specific action, scale, a lever of choice, an outcome and a timeline, and, thus, it is possible to set out clear delivery details and cost implications. Proposals are where it is possible to clearly set out an outcome and a timeline, and it is recognised action needs to take place, and generally these will have impact later in the plan period; consequently, more concrete detail on the precise policy levers and cost implications is more difficult to present.

6 Climate Change Committee: The Seventh Carbon Budget.

7 Section 35(25) of the 2009 Act requires the Scottish Ministers to set out an assessment of the progress towards implementing proposals and policies in the immediately preceding plan. That plan is the most recent full Climate Change Plan laid before the Scottish Parliament in 2018, read together with the Climate Change Plan update published in 2020.

8 Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit: The future is green: The economic opportunities brought by the UK’s net zero economy

9 PWC: Green Jobs Barometer

10 Note: investment in this context means capital spending.

11Office for Budget Responsibility: Net-zero is much cheaper than thought for UK – and unchecked global warming far more costly - Carbon Brief

12 Climate Change Committee: Scotland's Carbon Budgets

13 Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit: New analysis: petrol car drivers paid a £700 ‘petrol premium’ in 2023

14 Further action to decarbonise energy supply will be as a result of market change or action from the UK. These are outside of the scope of the CCP analysis.

15 These are the costs of actions outlined minus the cost savings noted above. Further detail on how these costs are calculated is provided in the Analytical Annex.

16 The SFC’s report has provided welcome context to assessing the costs of net zero within this Plan, however it is worth noting there are important differences in the underlying assumptions that make direct comparison challenging, most clearly a difference in the proposed policy pathway.

17 Further action to decarbonise energy supply will be as a result of market change or action from the UK. These are outside of the scope of the CCP analysis.

18 Sudmant, A., Higgins-Lavery, R. (2025). The Co-Benefits of Reaching Net-Zero in the UK. Edinburgh Climate Change Institute, University of Edinburgh. https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/7978

19 The ECCI’s results, in line with the CCC’s pathways, are modelled until 2050. For the purposes of this Plan, values have been capped at 2040.

20 Scottish Government: Key Insights from Scotland's Natural Capital - Making the Case for Nature: insights from Scotland's Natural Capital analyses

21 Scottish Government: Scotland’s Circular Economy and Waste Route Map, 2024

22 Results from the 2024/2025 campaign suggest that messaging has had a positive impact on the target audience’s commitment to taking climate action. Among those who recognised the campaign, 78% said they understood the actions needed to address climate change and 76% felt more motivated to reduce their emissions after seeing the advertising. In contrast, only 49% of non-recognisers reported feeling a similar level of motivation.

23 UK Offshore Energy Workforce Transferability Review, Robert Gordon University, May 2021

24 Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2024, ONS

25 EY: Just Transition Review of the Scottish Energy Sector

26 Scottish Government: Scotland’s Carbon Footprint 1998-2021

27 Scottish Government: Scotland’s Circular Economy and Waste Route Map

28 Transport Scotland: Scottish Transport Statistics 2024; Chapter 13

29 UK Government: A UK government food strategy for England, considering the wider UK food system

30 SWEFT: 2023 Household waste results summary , Zero Waste Scotland

31 IPBES: Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health

32 Food Standards Scotland; The Eatwell Guide: a More Sustainable Diet

33 Impact of reducing meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intake, health, cost of diets and the environment: A simulation among adults in Scotland

34 The National Food Strategy - The Plan

35 Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition: Iron and Health Report - GOV.UK

36 Food Standards Scotland: Modelling the impact of reductions in meat and dairy consumption on nutrient intakes and disease risk

37 Climate Change Committee: Scotland’s Carbon Budgets

38 WRAP: Net Zero: why resource efficiency holds the answers

39 Zero Waste Scotland: 2021 Scottish Food Waste Estimate

40 Scottish Government: Procurement Reform (Scotland) Act 2014: statutory guidance

41 Scottish Government: Sustainable Procurement

42 Transport Scotland: Benefits of Active Travel

43 Zero Waste Scotland: Carbon Metric Publications

44 A recent report by Energy UK notes that this effect will “play out over a decade” and that in the meantime international wholesale gas prices will “remain a significant driver of electricity prices. Energy UK (March 2025) How to cut bills

45 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023; residential and public buildings only

46 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023; residential and public buildings only

47 Scottish Government: Scottish House Condition Survey: 2023 Key Findings

48 Scottish Government: Key Findings Summary - Scottish House Condition Survey: 2023 Key Findings

49 Scottish Enterprise: Economic Value of Clean Heat in Scotland

50 Scottish Enterprise: Economic Value of Clean Heat in Scotland

51 Climate Change Committee: The Seventh Carbon Budget

52 Skills Development Scotland: Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan 2020-2025

53 CITB: Building Skills for Net Zero Scotland

54 Green Jobs Taskforce: Report to Government, Industry and the Skills Sector

55 Scottish Government: Heat in Buildings Strategy: 2022 update; Scottish Government: Heat in Buildings: progress report 2023; and Scottish Government: Heat in Buildings: progress report 2024

56 Scottish Government: Climate Change Plan: monitoring reports 2022; Scottish Government: Climate change monitoring report 2023; Scottish Government: Climate change monitoring report 2024; Scottish Government: Climate change monitoring report 2025

57 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023; residential and public buildings only

58 Scottish Government: Heat Networks Delivery Plan: review report 2024

59 Scottish Government: Heat Networks Quarterly Reports

60 Scottish Government: Just transition for the built environment and construction sector: a discussion paper

61 Scottish Enterprise: Economic Value of Clean Heat in Scotland

62 Climate Change Committee: The Seventh Carbon Budget

63 Scottish Government: Green Heat Finance Taskforce Part 2 report - Final - March 2025

64 Transport Scotland: National Transport Strategy 2

65 Scottish Government: Scotland’s Circular Economy

66 Transport Scotland: National Transport Strategy 2

67 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023

68 ONS, Nomis: Business Register and Employment Survey

69 Scottish Government: Annual Business Survey and businesses in Scotland

70 ONS, Nomis: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

71 ONS, Nomis: Annual Population Survey

72 Oxford Economics forecasting for Skills Development Scotland: Data Matrix

73 Scotland’s Modern Apprenticeship programme is 62% in favour of males; transport-related apprenticeship starts were 96% male in 2023/24, with very little change over the past eight years ONS, Nomis: Annual population survey

74 Scottish Government: Just Transition: draft plan for transport in Scotland

75 Transport Scotland: A route map to achieve a 20 per cent reduction in car kilometres by 2030

76 Transport Scotland: Reducing car use for a healthier, fairer, and greener Scotland: Analysis of Consultation Responses

77 Transport Scotland: Travel Demand Management Options Study

78 ClimateXChange: Reducing car use through parking policies: an evidence review

79 Transport Scotland: Achieving Car Use Reduction in Scotland: A Renewed Policy Statement

80 Transport Scotland: Active Travel Infrastructure Investment Report

81 Cycling Scotland: Irvine and Kilwinning among dozens of Scottish locations to see more people on bikes

82 Transport Scotland: A Network Fit For The Future: Vision for Scotland’s Public Electric Vehicle Charging Network

83 Transport Scotland: Draft Electric Vehicle Public Charging Network Implementation Plan

84 UK Government: Jet Zero strategy

85 ORR: Table 6320 - Infrastructure on the mainline

86 Transport Scotland: Renewed Policy Statement

87 Transport Scotland: Strategic Transport Projects Review 2

88 UK Government: Cycling Diversion Factors

89 Walk, Wheel, Cycle Trust: Scotland Walking and Cycling Index

90 SMMT: Electric Vehicle (EV) Data

91 Motor Transport: Record number of commercial vehicles hit UK roads, Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reveals

92 UK Government: Review of electricity market arrangements (REMA): Summer update, 2025

93 Transport Scotland: Towards Zero Emission HGV Infrastructure in Scotland: Phase 2 Report

94 Transport Scotland: Islands Connectivity Plan

95 Approach to Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience

96 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022

97 Greenhouse gas emissions are reported in Scottish Greenhouse Gas statistics using sector definitions set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under these definitions, greenhouse gas emissions are reported in the 'Waste’ sector, and energy from waste emissions are reported in the 'Energy Supply' sector.

98 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023

99 Waste from all sources for 2023, SEPA: Waste from all sources generated and managed 2023

100 The Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are based on international reporting standards, as set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). See more at Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC: Fifth Assessment Report — IPCC

101 2021 data from the Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2022, covering SIC division 38 – Waste Collection, Treatment and Disposal Activities; Materials Recovery. Scottish Government: Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2022

102 2023 data from the business register and employment survey, covering SIC division 38 - waste collection, treatment & disposal, materials recovery. ONS, Nomis: Official Census and Labour Market Statistics

103 Zero Waste Scotland: Scottish Waste Environmental Footprint Tool (SWEFT)

104 DEFRA: Extended Producer Responsibility for Packaging Consultation Government response, March 2022

105 The Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment Regulations 2013

106 Zero Waste Scotland has also developed a guide for local authorities which aims to support improved reuse practices across Household Waste Recycling Centres. Zero Waste Scotland: Making reuse happen at HWRCs guide for local authorities

107 Zero Waste Scotland: 2021 Scottish Food Waste Estimate

108 SEPA: Waste (from all sources) for 2023

109 Primary aggregates refers to crushed rock, gravel and sand from quarries - materials which are produced from naturally occurring mineral deposits and compacted for use in construction and other industries.

110 We also need to see a long-term reduction of emissions from Energy from Waste, which is addressed in the Energy Supply Sector chapter

111 Scottish Water: Net Zero Emissions Routemap

112 European Commission: Urban wastewater

113 Zero Waste Scotland: Household Food Waste in Scotland 2021-22 report

114 Public Health Wales: Circular Economies and Sustainable Health and Well-being: The public health impact of public bodies refocusing on waste reduction and reuse in Wales

115 Zero Waste Scotland: Household Food Waste in Scotland 2021-22

116 Scottish Government: Stop, Sort, Burn, Bury - incineration in the waste hierarchy: independent review

117 ONS, Nomis: 2023 data from the business register and employment survey, covering SIC division 38 - waste collection, treatment & disposal, materials recovery

118 Zero Waste Scotland: State of the Circular Economy Report

119 Zero Waste Scotland: Circularity Gap Report

120 UK Withdrawal from the European Union (Continuity) (Scotland) Act 2021

121 Zero Waste Scotland: Food Waste Estimate for 2021

122 Zero Waste Scotland: The composition of household waste at the kerbside in 2021-23

123 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023

124 Emissions associated with offshore oil and gas production, for example flaring on platforms, are not within the scope of Scotland’s statutory emission reduction targets. These emissions are not disaggregated to a Scotland level within the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The emissions arising from consumption in Scotland of oil and gas (e.g. through combustion in ICE vehicles or gas boilers for domestic heating) are covered in the relevant chapters of this Plan (e.g. transport and buildings).

125 Scottish Government: Total final energy consumption at regional and local authority level: 2005 to 2023

126 Ernst & Young: Just Transition Review of the Scottish Energy Sector, Project Ninian – baseline data updates, p.8.

127 Ernst & Young: Energy System and Just Transition Independent Analysis

128 Scottish Energy Statistics Hub

129 Scottish Energy Statistics Hub

130 UK Government: Clean Power Action Plan: A new era of clean electricity

131 Scottish Government: Stop, Sort, Burn, Bury - incineration in the waste hierarchy: independent review, Scottish Government, 2022; and Scottish Government: Second report: Decarbonisation of residual waste infrastructure

132 Scottish Government: Independent review of the role of incineration in the waste hierarchy: Scottish Government response

133 Scottish Government: Stop, Sort, Burn, Bury - incineration in the waste hierarchy: independent review

134 UK Government: Extending the UK ETS cap beyond 2030 (English consultation document - HTML version)

135 Scottish Government: Draft Bioenergy Policy Statement

136 Ernst & Young: Just Transition Review of the Scottish Energy Sector, Project Ninian – baseline data updates, p.8.

137 Ibid.

138 Fraser of Allander Institute: The Economic Impact of Scotland’s Renewable Energy Sector – 2025 Update

139 Scottish Government: Scottish House Condition Survey: 2023 Key Findings – 3 Fuel Poverty

140 Scottish Government: Energy system and Just Transition: independent analysis

141 Scottish Government: Offshore Wind Focus

142 Scottish Government: National Planning Skills Commitment Plan

143 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023

144 Office for National Statistics: Regional GVA Data

145 ONS, Nomis: Business Register and Employment Survey

146 The make-up of the Grangemouth cluster includes multiple industrial sectors. Emissions relating to fuel production (and finishe fuel import following the closure of the Grangemouth refinery) are covered in the Energy Supply chapter of this plan. For the purposes of this chapter, references to Grangemouth refer to wider industrial processes and emissions.

147 Figures may not sum to totals due to rounding.

148 Pultar, A. and Ferrier, J.: Transforming Industry: Strategic Policy Insights for Scotland's Industrial Decarbonisation

149 UK Government: Participating in the UK ETS

150 UK Government: UK Emissions Trading Registry

151 While the UK ETS cap is set on a yearly basis, allowances can be carried forward over years. This means that emissions are not capped to the number of allowances available each year. However, emissions will be capped to the total number of allowances released over the longer-term.

152 UK Government: Developing the UK Emissions Trading Scheme: main government response

153 PA Consulting: Demand-side policies for industrial decarbonisation: a review of the function and effects of labelling schemes, product standards and procurement policies

154 Scottish Government: Deep Decarbonisation Pathways for Scottish Industries: A study for the Scottish Government - Final Report

155 SEPA: Our Corporate Plan

156 BIC and RCI: Is there enough biomass to defossilise the chemicals and derived materials sector by 2050

157 RCI: RCI carbon flows report – Compilation of supply and demand of fossil and renewable carbon on a global and European level

158 Climate Change Committee: Scotland's Carbon Budgets

159 UK Government: Enabling Industrial Electrification: summary of responses

160 Scottish Government: A Trading Nation - Realising Scotland's Hydrogen Potential: plan for exports

161 Climate Change Committee: The Seventh Carbon Budget

162 Climate Change Committee: Delivering a reliable decarbonised power system

163 £3.5b in capex investment for the base case, with potential into growth case and beyond.

164 Scottish Government: Negative Emissions Technologies (NETS): Feasibility Study - Final Report

165 International Carbon Action Partnership: EU and UK commit to linking emissions trading systems in landmark cooperation agreement

166 IMO: Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter

167 European Commission: Clean Industrial Deal

168 Scottish Government: Total income from farming estimates: 2018-2024

169 Scottish Government: Sector Briefing – Food and Drink

171 Scottish Government: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2023

172 Scottish Agricultural Census: results - gov.scot

173 Scottish Government: Scotland’s Rural Economy

174 UK Government: Domestic farm support funding (Bew Review): government response

175 Climate Change Committee: Net Zero The UK's contribution to stopping global warming

176 Forest Research: Forestry Statistics 2024: Chapter 1: Woodland

177 Scottish Forestry analysis

178 Scottish Forestry analysis

179 Peatlands are wetland ecosystems in which waterlogging prevents surface vegetation from fully decomposing. Instead, it very slowly accumulates into layers of peat at around 1mm/year. Scotland’s deepest peat deposits – some of which are several metres deep – therefore took thousands of years to develop. The surface vegetation that becomes peat in this way captured carbon from the atmosphere as it grew and this also gradually becomes locked into the peat. Over time Scotland’s peat soils have built up a significant store of around 1.9 billion tonnes of carbon.

180 IUCN: Commission of Inquiry on Peatlands Update: Funding for peatland restoration and management

181 Scottish Government: Summary of Scottish Data from UK Natural Capital Accounts, 2024

182 ONS: UK natural capital accounts: 2024

183 Scottish Government: Natural capital - importance to the Scottish economy: research

184 NorthWest2045: Regional Land Use Partnership

185 South of Scotland Regional Economic Partnership: Regional Land Use Framework (RLUF)

186 Gross value added (GVA) is the measure of the value and contribution of goods and services produced by a sector or an industry to the economy.

187 Scottish Forestry: Economic Impact of Forest Based Activities in Scotland

188 Forest Research: Forestry Statistic 2024 – UK Grown Timber

189 Scottish Forestry: Forestry Strategy

190 Scottish Forestry: A Routemap to Resilience for Scotland's Forests and Woodlands

191 Scottish Government: Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029

192 Scottish Government: National Flood Resilience Strategy

193 Scottish Government: Scottish Land Rights and Responsibilities Statement 2022 - gov.scot

194 NatureScot: Mapping current and future workforce and skills requirements in peatland restoration

195 Scottish Government: National Flood Resilience Strategy

196 Scottish Forestry: Forestry Strategy

197 NatureScot: Scotland’s National Peatland Plan: Working for our future

198 Scottish Government: Climate Change Plan: Monitoring Report

199 Scottish Government: Climate Change Plan: Monitoring Report

200 Scottish Government: Ending the sale of peat: Consultation

201 NPF4 Planning Guidance Policy 2 - Climate Mitigation and Adaptation

202 Peatland ACTION - Assessing herbivore impact for Peatland ACTION applications.

203 Scottish Government: Independent Commission for the Land-based Learning Review report - SG response: implementation plan

204 Scottish Government: Independent Commission for Land-Based Learning - review and implementation plan: SG response - progress report

205 Arcgis: Scottish Public and Crown Estate Land

206 Scottish Government: Agricultural Reform Route Map

207 NatureScot: Peatland ACTION

208 Scottish Government: Scottish Budget 2025 to 2026

209 Confor: Engagement with local people and communities

210 A review of the future of the forestry workforce in Scotland: Prepared on behalf of Lantra and the Scottish Forest and Timber Technologies Skills Group; July 2019

211 Scottish Forestry Analysis

212 This is dependent on the type and location of a woodland

213 Scottish Forestry (2022) Scotland’s Forestry Strategy Implementation Plan

214 Scottish Forest & Timber Technologies (2024), Skills Action Plan 2024-2027

215 NatureScot: Mapping current and future workforce and skills requirements in peatland restoration

216 Scottish Government: Transferable skills in land-based and aquaculture sectors: review

217 Timbersource, General Timber Sale Prices, 2024.

218 the UK would need to use 78% more timber by 2050 if demand continues to rise at current rates. Global Wood Markets, 2022

219 United Nations: The ocean – the world’s greatest ally against climate change

220 WorldBank: Climate Explainer: Oceans and Climate Change

221 OSPAR: Climate Change Thematic Assessment

222 IAEA: The ocean carbon cycle

223 OSPAR: 9. Considering the Role of Climate Change and Ocean Acidification in Healthy Seas

224 World Ocean Review: Oceans under climate change

225 Scottish Government: Future fisheries: management strategy - 2020 to 2030

226 Scottish Government: Supporting documents - Scottish Greenhouse Gas Statistics 2022

227 McGoohan et al. (in prep) Understanding the emissions baseline for Scotland’s aquaculture and marine renewable industries.

228 Scottish Government: Scottish blue carbon action plan

229 UK Government: Marine strategy part three: 2025 UK programme of measures

230 Scottish Government: National marine planning - Marine planning

232 The indicators are focused on the just transition implications of our emissions reduction policies in the CCP. They do not, therefore, consider issues relating to climate change adaptation. Our approach to monitoring and evaluation of our third Scottish National Adaptation Programme (SNAP3) is outlined in a bespoke M&E Framework.

231 Scottish House Condition Survey - gov.scot, Table KA7

232 Energy price cap (default tariff) levels | Ofgem

233 Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project

234 Gas and electricity prices in the non-domestic sector - GOV.UK

235 Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project

236 Transport Scotland: Decarbonising the Scottish transport sector

237 Scottish Government: Greenhouse gas emissions projections: phase 1 and phase 2 modelling results

238 Climate Change Committee: Scotland's Carbon Budgets

239 Scottish Government: Greenhouse gas emissions projections: phase 1 and phase 2 modelling results

240 Green Finance Institute: Delivering Net Zero

241 UK Government: Jet zero modelling framework

242 Department for Transport: Sustainable aviation fuel mandate: final stage cost benefit analysis

243 Examples include established policies, such as the Deposit Return Scheme for single-use drinks containers in Scotland.

244 DEFRA, Introduction of mandatory digital waste tracking – Impact Assessment, 2021

245 Building a more productive and resilient UK through circularity

246 In-the-loop.pdf

247 Previous research found that around half of businesses studied realised a 14-fold or greater return on investment. For more detail see, The business case for reducing food loss and waste, Champions 12.3, 2017, business-case-for-reducing-food-loss-and-waste.pdf

248 Extended producer responsibility for packaging Full Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment (BRIA)

249 Amending Regulations of Deposit Return Scheme (DRS) for Scotland Regulations 2025 and The Deposit and Return Scheme for Scotland (Designation of Scheme Administrator) Order 2025 - BRIA - April 2025

250 Impact Assessment - Reforming the UK packaging producer responsibility

251 Future of the Scottish Landfill Communities Fund: consultation, Scottish Government, March 2025, https://www.gov.scot/publications/future-scottish-landfill-communities-fund-consultation/

252 Scotland’s Circular Economy and Waste Route Map to 2030

253 Just Transition Review of Scottish Energy Supply, EY, 2022, p5

254 UK ETS scope expansion to waste: interim authority response

255 Figures may not sum due to rounding

256 Note: this table does not include the social benefit of lower carbon emissions as a result of the policies brought forward for the Business & Industrial Processes CCP envelope.

257 Traded carbon values used for modelling purposes, 2024 - GOV.UK

258 Energy and emissions projections - GOV.UK

259 Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A new era of clean electricity – main report - GOV.UK

260 Carbon capture, utilisation and storage - Oil and gas - gov.scot

261 The challenge of accessing high-quality carbon offsets as part of the Net Zero transition

262 NZIP 2.0 was developed in-house by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and is based on the original NZIP 1.0 model used by and developed for the Climate Change Committee (CCC). NZIP 2.0 was also used by the CCC in their latest advice to the Scottish Government in their industry modelling.

263 Figures may not sum due to rounding.

264 Each allowance within the UK ETS is equivalent to 1tCO2e. Every UK ETS participant is required to surrender a number of allowances corresponding to their total emissions each scheme year.

265 Traded carbon values used for modelling purposes, 2024 - GOV.UK

267 Traded carbon values used for modelling purposes, 2024 - GOV.UK

268 These lower voluntary market prices were calculated by using the reduction in the traded-carbon price between the central and low sensitivity scenario and applying this to central voluntary market prices.

269 Similar to the low sensitivity scenario, the carbon price faced by the non-traded sector is calculated by using the increase in the traded-carbon price between the high and central scenarios and applying this to the central voluntary market price trajectory.

270 Gas and electricity prices in the non-domestic sector - GOV.UK

271 Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project

272 Scotland's Carbon Budgets - Climate Change Committee

273 Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and direct air carbon capture and storage | UKERC | The UK Energy Research Centre

274 Global Assessment of Direct Air Capture Costs - IEAGHG

275 Integrating greenhouse gas removals in the UK Emissions Trading Scheme - GOV.UK

276 Note: this table does not include the social benefit of lower carbon emissions as a result of the policies brought forward for the Business & Industrial Processes CCP envelope.

277 ClimateXchange (2022): Decarbonisation of mobile agricultural machinery in Scotland – an evidence review

278 the UK would need to use 78% more timber by 2050 if demand continues to rise at current rates. Global Wood Markets, 2022

279 Publication forthcoming in 2025: Towards Improving Area Estimates and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data for Peat under Grassland Conversion in Scotland.

280 Peatland benefits | IUCN UK Peatland Programme

281 Glenk, Klaus; Glendinning, James; Martin-Ortega, Julia (2025). 2024 update of cost per area estimates matching land cover types reported in Brown et al. (2021) – using data based on Nature Scot Peatland Action grants. Scotland's Rural College (SRUC). Report. https://doi.org/10.58073/SRUC.29940308.v1

282 IUCN - Commission of Inquiry on Peatlands Update: Funding for peatland restoration and management

283 NatureScot: Mapping current and future workforce and skills requirements in peatland restoration

284 Limitations of job creation estimates include their static nature, site-specific applicability, lack of consideration for net job creation, and inability to reflect actual labour force requirements over time. These estimates are based on simplified metrics like investment or area restored, which do not account for factors such as economies of scale, restoration duration, or varying restoration costs.

285 The term additionality is used to mean the carbon sequestration over and above that which would have happened anyway in the absence of a given project or activity.

Contact

Email: climatechangeplan@gov.scot

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