Scotland's Climate Change Plan – 2026-2040

Ministerial Foreword

Tackling climate change is now more important than ever.

Here in Scotland, we are already witnessing the devastating consequences of a warming planet, with floods, water shortages, heatwaves and wildfires becoming more common; these impact our communities and endanger lives and livelihoods across our country. Globally, the impact of more severe weather continues to cause water and food shortages, displacement of communities, and species loss at an unprecedented scale.

These realities underline the importance of adapting to the effects of climate change that are already with us. Crucially though, they provide a stark reminder about the action we must take to limit further global warming to safeguard the human rights of people today, and generations to come, to live in an environment where we can be healthy and live well. As we continue to witness the harmful effects of climate change, with Scotland experiencing the largest wildfires in living memory during the 2025 wildfires season, the underlying science remains the same: the only route to climate stability is reversing biodiversity loss and achieving net zero emissions.

We also know that delays to tackling climate change will only harm more people and places, while being more costly in the long term. A recent OBR report estimates that unchecked climate change could cost up to 8% of UK GDP by 2070 if the world warms by 3 degrees Celsius this century. The cost to all nations of doing nothing will unquestionably be higher than the price of action.

Crucially, we also recognise that in reducing our emissions and mitigating the impacts of climate change we have an unprecedented opportunity to build a more resilient and prosperous economy that is fit for the future. Action to minimise our country’s contribution to global warming also brings with it innovation and systems change that can provide jobs, improve human and environmental health, reduce the cost of living, create energy and food security and position Scotland as an exporter of expertise.

Scotland is already seeing important economic benefits from our transition. The number of green jobs in our economy continues to grow faster than all other regions of the UK according to PWC’s Green Jobs Barometer. Likewise, between 1990 and 2023 our emissions halved while the economy grew by 67.4%; a thriving economy and falling emissions are not only compatible but go hand-in-hand.

However, we also know the second half of our transition to 2045 presents a more difficult set of challenges. These will require decisive action, not just from this Government, but – given the constraints of devolution – working collaboratively with the UK Government as well as our partners in local government.

This Government believes that the complexities of navigating climate change would be much easier if the full range of powers and levers were in Scotland’s hands. Until such a time as the people of Scotland choose a different constitutional path, this plan is based on the current constitutional settlement.

That said, governments cannot tackle climate change alone. All of us – individuals, communities and businesses across our society – have a role in this shared ambition. This government will continue to work through partnerships to support the action we must see happen to protect people and the wider planet and maximise the economic opportunities of the climate transition.

I do not for a second think the level of change required will be easy, but we are determined to deliver a fair transition to net zero, and we are guaranteed to have more success working collaboratively as part of a national endeavour.

Of course, the wider challenge goes beyond our borders. Fighting climate change is a global effort. While Scotland's response is only one small piece of the puzzle, we can demonstrate to a global audience how emissions reduction and environmental benefits can go hand-in-hand with economic opportunities, national resilience, job creation, fairness, and the advancement of fundamental human rights.

That spirit of collaboration governs how this document is being developed as well. Already benefiting from a wide range of input from stakeholders in addition to the advice of the Climate Change Committee and the Just Transition Commission, this is a draft to be discussed and consulted on through Parliament and through a wide programme of engagement we are planning in the coming months.

In doing so, together, we can send a powerful message not just about the need, but also the positive case for urgent climate action both to countries around the world and here at home. Raising awareness of this issue has never been so important – particularly at a time when we are witnessing a concerning rise in anti-climate rhetoric. By taking strong action now, we can further reduce our emissions and play our part in tackling climate change.

We can seize the opportunities of net zero and deliver tangible benefits for people across Scotland – warmer homes, better air quality, and the health benefits of active travel – to support people in our communities to live longer, healthier, more fulfilling lives.