Scotland's Climate Change Plan – 2026-2040

Sectoral Contributions

Below, this section provides a summary of some of the key policies for each sector to meet our carbon budgets. It outlines the emissions pathway for each sector covered by the plan, some of the key actions which will be taken to achieve it and the economic opportunities and benefits this action will support.

Further detail for each sector is set out in the Sectoral Annexes and the Monitoring and Analytical Annex.

Buildings (Residential and Public)

Transport

Transport (Including Aviation and Shipping)

GHG Emissions Projection per 5 year period in MtCO2e

Economic Opportunities and co-benefits

• Total quantified benefits in excess of £26bn (including over £15bn saving from moving to EVs).
• Significant local air quality and noise benefits from transition to EVs.
• Health and wellbeing benefits from a cleaner transport system, and greater opportunities to travel by active and sustainable modes.
• Operational cost savings for households and businesses as EVs are typically cheaper to run and maintain. There could be operating and maintenance savings of over £15bn over 2026-2040 from the transition to EV cars and vans.
• Reduced congestion and better access to local economies.
• Financial benefits for households through offers of free and reduced fare travel, freeing up household resources for other essential spending.

Key policy drivers:

• Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme & ZEV Mandate: legislation and sales targets to encourage sales of lower emission and zero-emission cars & vans.
• Policies to reduce car use, such as free bus travel, investment in public and active transport, and local schemes.
• Consumer incentives to encourage EV uptake by households, sole traders and micro businesses to make the transition to EVs.
• Early investment in HGV infrastructure and vehicle replacement, to support the private sector to transition to Zero-Emission HGVs.
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) & Project Willow: The Scottish Government is considering options for increasing SAF production and use in Scotland. SAF is one of the key technologies available to support the decarbonisation of the aviation sector.

Routemap

• (2026) £188m allocated to support high quality active travel, bus infrastructure, sustainable travel integration and behaviour change investment.
• (2027) Collaborative and place-based delivery plans for car use reduction will be developed.
• (2030) a reduction in car user enabled with a shift to sustainable public transport alternatives.
• (2030) Approximately 24,000 additional public charge points enabled.
• (2030) The need for new petrol and diesel cars and vans phased out.
• (2032) Low emission solutions widely adopted at Scottish ports
• (2040) Some of the Scottish Government ferry service is decarbonised.
• (2040) Scheduled flights within Scotland further decarbonised.
• (2040) All road vehicles are zero emission.
• (2040) Scotland’s passenger rail services will be largely decarbonised.

Waste

Waste Management

GHG Emissions Projection per 5 year period in MtCO2e

Economic Opportunities and co-benefits

• Jobs: 12,000 employees work directly within the resources and waste sector in Scotland. Over 81,000 jobs attributable to circular economy activities in Scotland in 2021.
• Total quantified benefits of £3.1 billion as a result of the Deposit Return Scheme and packaging extended producer responsibility.
• Building a circular economy is expected to open up new market opportunities, improve productivity, and reduce costs for households and businesses through cutting waste and more efficient resource use.
• Reductions in waste and consumption of resources, alongside more effective and efficient waste management processes, will help deliver greater economic resilience for Scotland, for example through more stable supply chains and helping ensure access to the materials needed for the shift to net zero.
• Our products will be designed to last longer and can be more easily repaired, and the reuse of materials and products will be the norm.
• The shift to sustainable resource use will also see less litter on our streets and in our local environment, which will help to improve and strengthen communities, and lead to probable and long-term public health benefits.

Key Policy Drivers

• Measures to reduce landfill emissions further, including the forthcoming ban on biodegradable municipal waste going to landfill, maximising landfill gas capture opportunities and reviewing and targeting materials currently landfilled to identify and drive alternative management routes.
• Measures to reduce waste and ensure producers take greater responsibility for the environmental impact of their products, including action on textiles, delivering the Deposit Return Scheme for single-use drinks containers and reforms to extended producer responsibility schemes (e.g. packaging and batteries).
• Actions to reduce waste, including supporting households and businesses to cut food waste, and helping make reuse and repair the norm.
• Actions to modernise recycling, including a new co-designed statutory Code of Practice for household waste and recycling services, and statutory local recycling and reuse performance targets.

Routemap

• (2025) Ban on biodegradable municipal waste going to landfill introduced.
• (2025) Reforms to UK-wide packaging extended producer responsibility introduced.
• (2026) Final circular economy strategy published.
• (2026) Co-design of new statutory Code of Practice for household waste and recycling services concludes, followed by consultation.
• (2026)Options developed with businesses to implement mandatory public reporting of food waste and surplus.
• (2026-2027) Intervention plan to guide long-term work on household food waste reduction behaviour change.
• (2027) Launch of the Deposit Return Scheme (DRS) for single-use drinks containers
• (2027) New circular economy targets to be set
• (2030) Statutory local performance targets to be introduced for household waste services.
• (2040) Driven by policy actions, landfill emissions will have reduced to less than 0.3 MtCO2e.

Energy Supply

Energy Supply

GHG Emissions Projection per 5 year period in MtCO2e

Economic Opportunities and co-benefits

• Jobs: In 2023 approximately 33,500 FTE workers were directly employed in the low carbon and renewable energy economy in Scotland. It’s estimated that the low carbon energy sector could support 45,000 direct and indirect jobs in 2030, rising to 70,000 in 20451.
• The transition from fossil fuels to renewables could lead to decreased bills for consumers, reducing fuel poverty in Scotland.
• Renewable and low carbon energy will provide the foundation of our future energy system, offering Scotland a huge opportunity for economic growth that will support workers to access jobs in these emerging growth areas and enable businesses and communities across these supply chains to benefit.
• The upgrading of island interconnectors is likely to create jobs in local communities, both directly and through the supply chain.

Key Policy Drivers

• Support the inclusion of energy from waste in the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).
• Work with SSEN to reduce reliance on island diesel power stations through supporting establishment of new connections between islands and mainland; and explore the use of alternative, non-fossil-fuel based solutions to diesel for back-up supply.
• Continue to work constructively with the UK Government to ensure the Acorn Project and Scottish Cluster secure the fastest possible deployment, so that a just transition for our energy workforce can be secured, while delivering on net zero targets.

Routemap

• (2030) Offshore wind in Scotland will have expanded to between 8-11 GW, delivering on the measures laid out in our Offshore Wind Policy Statement.
• (2030) Scotland will have doubled renewable electricity generation capacity to 34-39 GW, with 5GW of hydrogen production and 2 GW community energy.
• (2032) Acorn storage site in the North Sea is expected to come online (subject to UK Government decisions).
• (2032) 45% of EfW sites (by emissions) install CCS, at 90% capture rate (with 50% of emissions from biogenic sources).
• (2035) We will have expanded our renewable capacity significantly to meet the increasing demand as other sectors decarbonise.
• (2035) Emissions will have reduced from thermal power generation to 0.4MtCO2e through the use of CCS, renewable power and alternative power means. 2030 2032 2035
• (2040)We will have developed up to 40GW of offshore wind.

Business and Industrial Process

Business and Industrial Process and Negative Emissions Technologies

GHG Emissions Projection per 5 year period in MtCO2e

Economic Opportunities and co-benefits

• Jobs: Over 5,000 new jobs estimated during the construction phase of Acorn, CCUS and Hydrogen infrastructure; over 2,000 permanent new jobs during the operating phase and over 12,000 safe guarded jobs across Scotland
• Job Creation and Industrial Competitiveness: The rollout of CCUS, hydrogen, and NETs technologies is expected to generate thousands of new jobs across Scotland’s industrial clusters and unlock billions of pounds of private investment.
• These investments modernise Scotland’s industrial base, stimulate innovation in clean manufacturing and energy systems, and attract inward investment.
• Lower emissions contribute to better air quality, which can lead to improved public health outcomes, particularly in communities near industrial sites.

Key Policy Drivers

• Electrification of Industrial Processes: Reduces emissions by leveraging Scotland’s growing renewable electricity generation, especially in energy-intensive sectors.
• Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) Deployment: Enables permanent storage of industrial CO2 emissions, particularly from hard-to-abate sectors, and is essential for achieving net zero.
• Hydrogen Action Plan and Sector Development: Facilitates fuel switching in industrial processes, reducing reliance on fossil fuels and enabling deep decarbonisation.
• Scottish Industrial Energy Transformation Fund (SIETF): Directly reduces emissions at industrial sites by improving energy performance and enabling cleaner energy use.

Routemap

• (2025) Hydrogen Action Plan published.
• (2026) NETs Ambition for Scotland and NETs Route Map to deployment published.
• (2026) New industrial decarbonisation programme commences.
• (2026) Inclusion of maritime into the UK ETS.
• (2028-2031) Inclusion of waste incineration and energy from waste into the UK ETS.
• (2029) Acorn Transport and Storage will have received Final Investment Decision.
• (2029) Inclusion of engineered greenhouse gas removals into the UK ETS.
• (2032) Acorn transport and storage project deployed
• (2040) NETs successfully deployed at scale.

Agriculture

Economic Opportunities and co-benefits

• Ongoing financial support of the agricultural sector: We will continue to provide financial support to the agricultural sector (amounting to more than £9bn over the plan period) enabling farming businesses to reduce their emissions while supporting their business objectives.
• Jobs and farm income1: Scotland’s agriculture sector supports over 67,000 jobs and generates around £1.3 billion in farming income
• Food and Drink2: Scottish agriculture underpins our £18.9 billion food and drink industry which employs 123,000 people
• Nature and biodiversity: Our policies and proposals will support our biodiversity ambitions, delivering for nature as part of our approach to reducing agricultural emissions, for example through peatland restoration and management on farms.
• Climate adaptation: Our policies and proposals will deliver some climate adaptation benefits, for example flood prevention through tree planting.
• Food: Our policies and proposals will support the production of sustainable, high-quality food

Key Policy Drivers

• Continue the delivery of the Agricultural Reform Route Map, ensuring that future support will deliver high-quality food production, climate mitigation and adaptation, and nature restoration.
• Working with industry and policy sectors, reduce emissions from agriculture non-road mobile machinery by investigating and promoting efficiencies, alternative fuels and technological developments and providing knowledge exchange, guidance and advice.
• Investigate technologies for alternative, improved or more efficient fertilisers, including organic and organo-mineral fertilisers and fertilising products.

Routemap

• (2025) Rural Support Plan published.
• (2027) Agriculture Knowledge and Innovation System launched, providing high quality advice, skills, knowledge, training and CPD, helping farmers and crofters deliver climate mitigation actions.
• (2027) Roll out of support mechanisms which can support the delivery of outcomes linked to lowering emission intensity from livestock
• (2028) All farm businesses have completed their Whole Farm Plans.
• (2030) The Agricultural Reform Programme will have delivered reformed support to incentivise sustainable and regenerative farming, nature restoration, climate action, and highquality food production.
• (2030) Carbon sequestration on agricultural land is increasing, and carbon stores are maintained or increasing through increased tree planting and peatland restoration
• (2035) Smartsheds start to be commercially rolled out.
• (2040) Scotland’s agricultural machinery will have largely decarbonised, through efficiencies and the roll out of alternative fuels.

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