Child poverty in the UK and Scotland

Child poverty trends across the UK

Key findings

• Overall,Scotland has lower proportions of children experiencing poverty than the UK as whole , reflecting lower housing costs and, in more recent years, devolved policy efforts to tackle child poverty.
• Scotland has consistently had lower levels of relative child poverty than the UK as whole. The latest estimates report 21% of children in Scotland are living in relative poverty compared to 28% in the UK overall. However, further years of linked data are required to confirm more recent patterns and trends.
• Absolute child poverty after housing costs is estimated to be six percentage points lower in Scotland than in the UK (23% and 29%, respectively). However, similar to relative child poverty, further data is required to confirm more recent patterns and trends.
• Recent child combined low income and material deprivation estimates are lower in Scotland than in the UK (11% and 16%, respectively).
• Persistent child poverty estimates in Scotland have a wider range than in the UK. Scotland’s range varies between 12 and 19% while the UK ranges between 15 and 20%. Persistent poverty estimates for children tend to fluctuate due to small sample sizes.

This section provides an overview of child poverty trends across the UK. While the primary focus is on developments from the 2010s onwards, earlier trends from the late 1990s and 2000s are considered for context.

The analysis draws on the child poverty target measures as set out in the Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017. These are: relative poverty; absolute poverty; child combined low income and material deprivation; and persistent poverty. Further detail on the selection of measures can be found in Appendix A, with additional information available in the Scottish Government's child poverty analysis collection.

Shifts in policy and economic context

During the 1990s, the UK Government introduced a range of policies focused on increased benefit generosity, particularly tax credits for families with children, and improved access to and quality of public services. However, some academic analysis has highlighted that while outcomes improved over this period, gaps still remained large with no real reductions in income inequality across the UK. ^[4]

The 2008/09 financial crisis, and subsequent recession, marked a turning point in the policy and economic context.^[5] From 2010, UK poverty trends were further shaped by a markedly different policy environment that persisted across successive UK Governments. The 2010s were characterised by fiscal austerity and extensive welfare reform. In response to the large budget deficit following the financial crisis, the UK Government prioritised deficit reduction through significant public spending cuts, including substantial reductions to means-tested benefits.^[6]

The introduction of the Welfare Reform and Work Act 2016 marked a further shift in approach. Around the same time, statutory child poverty targets were abolished by the UK Government, signalling a decisive shift in policy. Overall, following the 2008/09 financial crisis, child poverty reduction at the UK level subsequently stalled, reflecting both policy changes and wider economic pressures.

The early 2020s have been shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic and the cost of living crisis. This has resulted in significant economic disruption and increased financial pressures for many households, particularly for families living in lower income households. Care should be taken when interpreting trends over this period due to changes in methodology following the introduction of linked administrative data.

Trends in child poverty in the UK and Scotland

This section outlines trends in child poverty between Scotland and the UK, focusing on the four measures used to report progress against the targets set out in the Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017. While the statutory targets are based on single-year estimates, this report draws on three-year averaged estimates which are better for assessing longer term trends.

For three of the four measures (relative poverty, absolute poverty and combined low income and material deprivation), data comes from the Family Resources Survey. Due to data linkage, introduced from 2021/22 and changes in survey methodology in 2023/24, caution is required when making direct comparisons of trends across periods before and after these changes. The estimates for Persistent Poverty come from a different survey called the Understanding Society Survey. As per definitions in the Act, all measures are presented on an after housing costs basis which means housing costs are deducted from the reported household income.

The tables below summarise the latest estimates for Scotland and the UK. Table 1 presents relative and absolute child poverty, Table 2 shows child combined low income and material deprivation, and Table 3 persistent child poverty estimates.

Table 2: Child combined low income and material deprivation in Scotland compared to UK. Measure presented on an after house costs basis

Region

UK

Child combined low income and material deprivation (2022-2025)

16%

Region

Scotland

Child combined low income and material deprivation (2022-2025)

11%

Table 3: Persistent child poverty rates in Scotland compared to UK. Measure presented on an after house costs basis

Region

UK latest (2020-2024)

Persistent child poverty

15%

Region

Change from 2019-2023

Persistent child poverty

-1

Region

Scotland latest (2020-2024)

Persistent child poverty

17%

Region

Change from 2019-2023

Persistent child poverty

+1

Relative child poverty

Relative child poverty is a commonly used poverty measure. The relative poverty line is 60% of the UK median income in the same year. Children are living in relative poverty if they live in a household whose equivalised income is below this amount.

Since the early 2000s Scotland has consistently had lower proportions of children experiencing relative child poverty than the UK as whole (Figure 1). From 2010 onwards, UK poverty trends were shaped by a markedly different policy environment characterised by fiscal austerity and extensive welfare reform. In line with the 2008/09 recession, the downward trends in child poverty stalled, with some nations across the UK experiencing increases in relative child poverty. From 2010-2013 to 2018-2021,^[7] relative child poverty increased slightly across both Scotland and the UK.

The most recent linked data estimates that 21% of children living in Scotland (210,000 children each year) were living in relative poverty after housing costs (2022-25). The UK child relative poverty rate after housing costs is estimated to be six percentage points higher for 2022-2025 (at 28%).^[8] However, further years of linked data are required to confirm more recent patterns and trends and care should be taken in making direct comparisons before and after the linkage break (data prior to 2021/22).

Absolute child poverty

Absolute child poverty measures whether the incomes of low-income households are keeping up with inflation. It is defined as having an income below 60% of the median UK income in a fixed reference year, adjusted for inflation. Due to data linkage and changes in data analysis at the UK level, the reference year has changed over time. To allow comparisons between Scotland and the UK, we only report on data since 2020 (the past three data points). This is because other UK nations do not routinely publish absolute poverty data with 2010/11 as the reference year (consisting of data before 2021/22).^[9]

Across the past three data points, absolute child poverty rates at the UK level have remained broadly flat (Figure 2), Scotland has seen a modest but sustained reduction, leading to a widening divergence between the two in recent years. The 2022-2025 data shows that absolute child poverty after housing costs is estimated to be six percentage points lower in Scotland than in the UK (23% and 29%, respectively).

Child combined low income and material deprivation

Child combined low income and material deprivation measures the proportion of children living in households with both a low income and material deprivation. This means living in a household with an income below 70% of the UK median and being unable to afford basic goods and activities that are seen as necessities in society.

Figure 3 shows that between 2011-2014 and 2017-2020, the proportion of children across the UK in combined low income and material deprivation fell by three percentage points (17% to 14%), while in Scotland this measure remained relatively stable over this period (between 12% and 13%).

In the most recent period, which cannot be compared with earlier data due to ongoing data developments, child combined low income and material deprivation is lower in Scotland than in the UK. An estimated 16% of children in the UK of children were living in combined low income (after housing costs) and material deprivation, compared to 11% in Scotland. This is a difference of 5 percentage points.

Persistent child poverty

Persistent child poverty is defined as living in relative poverty for at least three out of the four consecutive years. This captures longer-term exposure to low income rather than short-term fluctuations. The length of time spent in poverty is important as prolonged exposure is associated with more pronounced negative impacts on health, well-being and overall life chances.^[10] These impacts can affect an individual throughout their lifetime.

Persistent child poverty rates were generally higher in the UK than in Scotland over the 2010s, with trends relatively stable in the UK (Figure 4). The data for Scotland shows greater fluctuation within the most recent period (2020-2024), showing a higher rate of persistent child poverty than in the UK (17% and 15%, respectively).

Persistent poverty estimates for children tend to be more volatile than those for the full Understanding Society sample. Historically, persistent poverty rates for children in Scotland have ranged between 12% and 19% while for the UK they range between 15% and 20%. The volatility for persistent poverty reflects the smaller sample size of the Understanding Society Survey. Estimates are also routinely revised as the survey is a longitudinal sample and when households re-join the survey, past data gaps can be filled.

Scotland tends to experience lower levels of child poverty than the UK as a whole. This is influenced by lower housing costs and, in more recent years, devolved policy efforts to tackle child poverty.

Child poverty trends across the other UK nations

This section examines trends in child poverty across the other UK nations, with a particular focus on identifying similarities and differences in patterns over time.

Child poverty trends in England

Child poverty trends in England broadly mirror UK-wide trends. This is unsurprising given the proportion of England accounted for in the UK population (84.6%),^[11] which means UK-level estimates are largely driven by trends in England. For example:

• Estimates for 2022-2025 suggest 29% of children in England were living in relative poverty (compared with 28% across the UK and 21% in Scotland).
• Absolute child poverty is currently estimated to be 30% in England (compared to 29% in the UK and 23% in Scotland).
• Child combined low income and material deprivation measure is estimated to be 17% in England in the latest period (2022-2025). This is compared to 16% in the UK and 11% in Scotland.
• Persistent child poverty is estimated to be 14% in England in 2020-2024. This is similar to the UK of 15% and lower than the Scotland estimate (17%).

Child poverty trends in Wales

Child poverty in Wales tends to follow a similar pattern to that seen across the UK as a whole, although rates are typically slightly higher. However, small sample sizes mean estimates of poverty can be volatile and have a higher degree of statistical uncertainty. As a result, changes observed in the data need to be interpreted with caution.^[12]

Trends and recent data across a range of child poverty measures are outlined below.

• Since the 1990s, relative child poverty rates in Wales have generally been slightly higher than the UK average – and therefore also higher than those in Scotland. It is too early to determine whether this trend will persist in the new linked data series, but 2022-2025 estimates suggest 32% of children in Wales were living in relative poverty (compared with 28% across the UK).
• Absolute child poverty is currently estimated to be 34% in Wales. This is higher than in the UK and Scotland.
• The proportion of children experiencing child combined low income and material deprivation measure peaked at 20% in 2011-2014 (three percentage points above the UK), before falling to a low of 11% in 2016-2019 (three percentage points below the UK). The latest estimate indicates that 15% of children in Wales experience combined low income and material deprivation (comparable to 16% across the UK).
• Persistent child poverty is estimated to be 23% in 2020-2024.

Child poverty trends in Northern Ireland

On the whole, child poverty rates for Northern Ireland are lower than the UK average and, in recent years, often lower than Scotland. This may be partly due to comparatively lower housing costs^[13] and the impact of welfare mitigation policies, which help to protect households from some of the effects of wider UK welfare reforms.^[14] For example:

• Relative child poverty is estimated to be 19% in Northern Ireland in 2022-2025 (compared to 21% in Scotland and 28% in the UK overall).
• Absolute child poverty is currently estimated to be 20% in Northern Ireland. This is lower than in the UK and Scotland.
• Child combined low income and material deprivation is estimated to be 8% in Northern Ireland in 2022-2025 (compared to 11% in Scotland and 16% in the UK overall).
• Persistent child poverty is estimated to be 13% in 2020-2024. This has remained relatively stable since 2016-2020. This is lower than in the UK and Scotland.