Scottish economic bulletin: December 2025

Output

The Scottish economy grew 0.2% in the 3-months to September and 0.9% annually.

• The latest GDP data indicates that the pace of economic growth in Scotland for the 3-months to September (Q3) remains slightly slower than at the start of the year, when anecdotal reports suggested that growth may have been boosted by some activity being brought forward ahead of the changes to US tariffs.
• Scotland’s GDP grew 0.2% in Q3 following growth of 0.2% in Q2 and 0.5% in Q1. Growth over the quarter was driven by a pick-up in growth in the month of September (0.7%) which offset falls in output over August (-0.2%) and July (-0.4%).^[1]
• Growth in Q3 was slightly stronger than at a UK level (0.1%) with UK output falling 0.1% in the month of September, largely reflecting a fall in car manufacturing due to the cyber-attack on Jaguar Land Rover pausing production.^[2]
• However, more broadly, Scotland’s economic output has grown 0.9% over the past year (UK: 1.3%).^[3]

• Growth in the three months to September was driven by the Services (0.5%) and Construction (0.1%) sectors, which offset a fall in Production output (-1.3%).
• In the Services sector, growth was relatively broad based with further, albeit slightly softer, growth in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (2.4%), Administrative & Support Services (1.5%), and Accommodation and Food Services (0.9%). Retail Services growth remained flat (0.0%) however Consumer Facing Services output more broadly grew 0.3%. On an annual basis, Services output grew 1.8%, in the 3-months to September.
• The pace of growth in the Construction sector continued to ease over the 3-month period, slowing from 1.0% growth in Q2 to 0.1% in Q3. On an annual basis, Construction output grew 1.5% in the 3-months to September.
• Output in the Production sector continued to decline in the three months to September (-1.3%), extending the downward trend from the first quarter of the year. The latest fall was driven by contractions across the subsectors, including Manufacturing (-1.1%), Mining and Quarrying (-1.6%), Electricity and Gas Supply (-1.8%), and Water Supply and Waste Management (-1.2%).
• On an annual basis, Production output fell 3.6%, and within that, Manufacturing output fell 6%.