Scottish economic bulletin: December 2025

Footnotes

1 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2 GDP first quarterly estimate, UK - Office for National Statistics

3 Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024.

4 Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

5 Monetary Policy Report - November 2025 | Bank of England

6 Bank Rate maintained at 4% - November 2025 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes | Bank of England

7 Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot

8 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business

9 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business

10 Producer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics

11 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business

12 Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot

13 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2 | OECD

14 Briefing paper No.9: Forecasting productivity - Office for Budget Responsibility

15 World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim

16 Based on the Labour Force Survey: Labour market statistics - gov.scot

17 Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics

18 In May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions increased the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change affected around 180,000 claimants in the UK, increasing the Claimant Count at the time of the change.

19 Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics

20 Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | Royal Bank of Scotland , Purchasing Managers’ Index Reports | NatWest Business

21 Textkernel new online job adverts - Office for National Statistics

22 Earnings and employment from Pay as You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

23 EFOs - Office for Budget Responsibility

24 Monetary Policy Report - November 2025 | Bank of England

25 Agents' summary of business conditions - November 2025 | Bank of England

26 Public sector: economic overview - gov.scot

27 Pressures on public sector pay | Institute for Fiscal Studies

28 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

29 Consumer confidence drops two points in November to -19 - NIQ

30 Retail sales, Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

31 Household Costs Indices for UK household groups - Office for National Statistics

32 Effective interest rates - A visual summary of our data | Bank of England

33 Energy price cap explained | Ofgem

34 Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount - Office for National Statistics

35 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2 | OECD

36 EFOs - Office for Budget Responsibility

37 Forecasts for the UK economy - GOV.UK

38 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2025 | Scottish Fiscal Commission

39 FAI Economic Commentary Q3 2025 | FAI