Blue Economy scenarios: final report

Live fast, Die young

120. Live fast, die young describes a future where the prevailing culture is risk averse and short-term risk taking is avoided. Government’s approach is collaborative and facilitative.

Scotland has limited ambition

121. The days when people believed that Scotland was going to achieve its future ambitions and policy goals are long gone. At least, people think they are long gone, but no-one really bothers to check any more.

122. Why would they? Future ambition is not really on people’s radar. People are too well versed in the past – scattered, uncoordinated policy making, politicians making politically expedient decisions rather than the right ones, successive governments failing to navigate high levels of complexity in a (very) fast changing world– to believe that tomorrow is going to be any different. No-one trusts the rhetoric about how great Scotland’s future is going to be and no-one believes its leaders know where they are taking it.

123. Scotland’s present reality is the consequence of its mis-spent past where, in the absence of any coherent vision, money was simply thrown at whatever was in front of decision makers. It didn’t matter whether the projects actually did anything for the environment – and particularly for the marine environment – as long as the budget was spent.

Success tends to be achieved by those who shout loudest

124. It was common knowledge, of course, that development projects needed to demonstrate environmental and economic gain; and equally common knowledge that no-one knew how to prove – or disprove – the evaluations that were submitted with bids for funding. Success tends to be achieved by those who shout the loudest rather than those who make the best case.

125. No wonder then that Scotland’s approach to achieving its blue economy vision has fallen by the wayside.

Government mistakes activity for impact

126. It took a long time for Scotland to realise it was going wrong because its government mistook activity for impact. And there was plenty of activity – but in the absence of any coherent plan, that activity was, simply, the wrong kind. Money flowed into the sectors and geographies that were easy and politically expedient to develop – rather than into the sectors and geographies that needed development. Projects that offered quick wins – jobs in the short term, continued survival of sunset industries, more funding for nicer streetscapes and more urban development (for example) – got in the way of projects that were difficult but required for Scotland to achieve its ambitions.

127. It was hard to spot the real danger at first, but it has become clear over the past five years that Scotland’s approach to developing its marine space has been tokenistic and lacking in strategic courage.

Policy has failed to deliver public good

128. The lack of any industrial strategy over the last few decades has created a piecemeal and opportunistic approach that has failed to deliver public good. Local authorities and government have struggled to achieve effective partnership arrangements and the connection between national and local decision making is all but broken. Worse, the failure has delivered public harm.

129. Fisheries are struggling to survive without any long-term sustainable development plan.

130. Strategic decisions around biodiversity and the management of protected areas are arbitrary and unaligned. Many external experts believe Scotland has passed the one minute to midnight point and that the situation may not now be recoverable.

131. Coastal communities have long suffered declining investment, and the lack of any coherent long term housing programme has led to many of the communities being displaced.

132. Those that are left survive because they service - directly or indirectly - Scotland’s energy sector. The sector’s performance is good, if not stellar. Investment in renewables (particularly offshore wind, wave and tidal) has been lower than it might have been and wrangling over the productive use of agricultural land in the 30s caused a hiatus that the industry is only now recovering from. Access to the skills Scotland needs if it is to accelerate growth remains a real concern. Oil and gas remain in the mix. Scotland can’t quite let go.

133. And still, no-one (at least no-one other than those affected) cares. Scotland’s urban population is focussed on getting by. So is Scotland’s industrial base. The erosion of rural and coastal communities has, simply been collateral damage.

134. Scottish Government may be turning its once blind eye in the direction of its marine communities – but it feels like it is probably too little. It is definitely too late.

135. Key sector performance in Live fast, die young

A = significantly stronger than in 2024

B = slightly stronger than in 2024

C = about the same as in 2024

D = slightly weaker than in 2024

E = significantly weaker than in 2024