Blue Economy scenarios: final report

End of the rainbow

53. End of the rainbow describes a future where prevailing behaviours and attitudes seek long term systemic change and where Government’s is collaborative and facilitative.

Scotland’s has ambition, cohesion and a desire for change.

54. Scotland may not have a found a pot of gold in its backyard but it has found something much more valuable: ambition, cohesion and a desire for change. It is focussing these qualities on achieving economic growth and environmental healing.

55. One commentator has likened it to Scotland growing up – and in a funny way, that’s exactly what has happened. The school leavers and graduates of two decades ago are now in their late thirties and early forties and climbing up the corporate and government ladders. They have brought their environmental values to work and are shaping a better future for all of us. Profitability remains important, but not at any cost - and certainly not at the cost of employee and societal wellbeing or at the cost of the planet.

56. For the first time in 100 years, government and business are working together to win the peace.

Environmental and economic policies are aligned.

57. The last twenty years have seen alignment of nations’ environmental and economic policies in response to the climate and biodiversity emergencies. This has led to a new rapprochement between the leading nations and, in particular, between the developed and developing economies who now realise their mutual dependence. This is strikingly demonstrated by the global deployment of AI tools that drive efficiency in resource usage; that reduce the environmental impacts of production and consumption of goods; and that distribute the knowledge about how to make these gains around in the global network instantaneously.

58. It has led to a new rapprochement between political parties as well. Scotland is not the only nation to put party politics aside in order to agree a shared and consistent approach to sustainability, but it was one of the first and has consequently made good progress (although there is still a lot to do…). Communities see the long-term opportunities afforded by change.

59. This last is important for Scotland. Society’s willingness to adapt still correlates to being economically active and the workplace has become the most important channel for informing attitudes and behaviours. This does mean, however, that those out of work or those in microbusinesses who are disconnected from these channels still need convincing. It’s a slightly tricky dilemma for a government that seeks to facilitate change rather than legislate for it, but one which Ministers – and the press – continue to keep a close eye on.

Business has embraced the natural capital approach.

60. Business is fully on board and most have adapted their business models to take on the natural capital approach. It was a surprisingly easy and rapid transition, driven in part by the values of today’s workforce and in part by the demands of the global supply chain.

61. Businesses that do not apply the natural capital approach are no longer welcome to supply businesses that do. This is due to the externalities along the supply chain. Consumers in overseas markets will not buy goods which contain parts (no matter how small) supplied by a business in Scotland that released chemicals into the water course. It doesn’t matter that pollution happened on the other side of the world; we are all one planet and poor practice will be punished in the market place.

62. Scottish Government has played an important role in supporting these transitions. Funding has played its part – especially funding to acquire the required new skills - but advisory services are an equally important and valued commodity. Scottish Government has invested heavily in building up those particular skills.

Citizens are on board too.

63. Scotland citizens – initially sceptical and anxious about what change would mean – have accepted that everyone wins if everyone looks after the environment. This cultural transition is perhaps one of Scotland’s greatest achievements indeed, some commentators believe it to be the single most important factor in Scotland’s success.

64. It is certainly true that all citizens feel that communities have benefitted. Partly this is due to the collaborative and open approach to participatory decision making that Scottish Government has taken; partly it is due to the mature and open debate in our national media; partly it is due to Scotland being fully aware of its responsibility in the global community; and partly (perhaps critically) it is due to employees bringing the changes in their working environments back to their communities.

65. Changes to how people live, consume, work and travel have perhaps had the biggest impact in towns and cities; people in rural and coastal communities are more resilient and used to organising their lives. For them, change is a positive. And change has reversed the decline in rural, coastal and island communities. Not substantially in the latter case, but significantly. Some people are working in the natural environment more, delivering food and energy. Others have moved out of cities to find new, more immediate community.

66. Business has played an important role in supporting these moves by investing in productive local communities and local skills. These are real benefits. Business may not promise the world (as it once did, perhaps cynically) but it promises to deliver what communities value. And it delivers. That is what co-existence is all about.

Scotland has achieved its just transition.

67. No wonder then that Scotland has achieved its just transition. It has achieved just decision making as well; one early win of the climate and biodiversity crises is that government now uses an evidence based approach to policy making that keeps it on track. This has been key to success in the marine space as well as in the wider economy.

68. Another win is how Scotland has built up its own skills base rather than wholly rely on skills from outside. Key to this was the foresight that enabled stakeholders in the oil and gas sector to manage the transition to renewable energy over the last two decades by building up the new skills required. This foresight has not only applied to energy – it has supported strategic realignment of skills in coastal and island communities as well.

69. Scottish Government is quietly proud of Scotland’s success. And so it should be – it has achieved a huge amount in a short time. It has been a shared effort of course but that effort has worked because Scottish Government stepped back and gave society and business the time and space it needed to accept and adapt to change. It was always ready to deploy more directive policies if they were required. They never were.

The marine environment is thriving.

70. From the policy perspective, this is primarily due to Scotland’s focus on three particular policy goals: achieving net zero by 2045, restoring Scotland’s marine and coastal biodiversity and, critically, enabling multi use of Scotland’s seas to reduce conflict for marine space. The combination of these three objectives means that Scotland has achieved all its blue economy outcomes.

71. Scotland’s marine ecosystems are healthy and functioning, with nature protected and activities managed using an ecosystem-based approach to ensure negative impacts on marine ecosystems are minimised and, where possible, reversed.

72. Scotland’s blue economy is resilient to climate change, contributing to climate mitigation and adaptation, with marine sectors decarbonised, resource efficient and supporting Scotland’s Net Zero and Nature Positive commitments.

73. Established and emerging marine sectors are innovative, entrepreneurial, productive and internationally competitive. Scotland is a global leader in healthy, quality, sustainably harvested and farmed Blue Food for its own population and beyond.

74. Thriving, resilient, regenerated, healthy communities have more equal access to the benefits that ocean resources provide.

75. Scotland is an ocean literate and aware nation.

76. The migration into rural and coastal communities – one of the key indicators of Scotland’s success - has been led both by the increase in job opportunities across the marine space and by the widespread availability of fibre broadband which supports home working and social connectivity. These communities are not just revitalised centres of production but also of innovation and learning.

Key sector performance in End of the Rainbow^[1]

A = significantly stronger than in 2024

B = slightly stronger than in 2024

C = about the same as in 2024

D = slightly weaker than in 2024

E = significantly weaker than in 2024