Blue Economy scenarios: final report

Backcasting the Future

175. Backcasting is a technique for determining the steps that need to be taken to deliver a preferred future.

176. The process is to build a timeline backwards from the preferred future to the present, setting out the key changes required to deliver it and using the conversation to identify what is wholly in governments’ control and what is not.

177. The group was unanimous in its view that End of the rainbow is the scenario that most closely represents the future the group aspires to. We therefore asked the group to conduct a backcasting exercise to determine the steps required to deliver this future.

178. We divided participants into three groups, asked each to focus on one of the NMP2 Regions – North, East, West – and to backcast the steps required to deliver the future they aspire to. We asked groups to identify the steps that are required to deliver the future and to distinguish between

• Steps that are wholly in government’s control
• Steps that are not wholly in government’s control

179. The backcasts are set out on pages 41-44. The first backcast – for the North - is presented over two pages to accommodate the volume of ideas the group generated.

180. To support discussion, we gave each group a set of enablers and barriers to delivering End of the rainbow, derived from the online workshops which explored the forces driving Scotland towards (enablers) or away from (barriers) the scenario. These are set out in Annex 3.

The backcasts

North – Steps that are wholly in government’s control

2025 – 2045

• We have a good understanding of Scot Nat Cap resource indicators
• Natural capital valuation in place accompanied by monitoring of user trust
• NMP2 gives clarity over marine spatial planning and facilitation of multi use of marine space
• Industry understands climate impacts and builds resilience design
• Increased ocean literacy (environment "source to sea")
• Shared understanding of biodiversity/ecosystems services/ecosystem functioning
• Scotland actively participates in international decisions and influences UK Gov (eg treaties)
• Space for nature protection/enhancement
• Increased/clear community involvement in marine decision-making
• Build our understanding of scale, evidence, science to inform what we restore and how we do it
• Cultural change to transparent evidence based decision making
• Strategic compensation measures – not like for like compensation – in play
• Monitoring of MPA network
• Better use of data – including developers’ data
• Feedback loops. Regular reporting on outcomes/reach/balance (not all equal growth at all times)
• Designated sites are more protected
• Structure for participatory decision making
• Nature positive design/net gain
• Recognition of cultural heritage (tangible and intangible)
• Space for transport marine
• Nature (space) based solutions for adaptation increased
• Review of management approaches and adaptation of approach
• Microrenewables are enabled
• More affordable access/transport to coast
• Decarbonisation/economic solutions for all sectors incl. vessels
• Increased local management/ownership
• Better transport links to improve access to markets. Resilient in bad weather.

2025-2045

North – Steps that are not wholly in government’s control

• Grid!
• Political and economic stability (national and international) is achieved
• Retained UK gov decisions mean political commitment across UK
• Unknown/unpredicted environmental change
• Long term confidence builds
• Mature open debate in media
• Build trust and credibility
• Allocate sufficient funding/resources to local authorities
• Knowledge of climate impacts (adaptation) and openness to required change (landward movement/giving up land to sea) is widespread
• Change the political culture
• Green finance/market/lease
• Viable alternatives for oil and gas:
  • energy profession
  • skills
  • pay
• Oil and gas expansion – market driven
• Change land use
• Increase ocean literacy
• Global emissions: progress towards net zero 2050 (vs Scotland's contribution?)
• Deliver viable diverse island economies. Housing/transport/jobs/digital connectivity
• Change diets
• Local and central government have a different relationship

2025-2045

East

• Clear national single consenting regime (all sectors fall under same regime)
• Support for all sectors to adapt practices in line with NMP2 vision
• Clear priorities and objectives stated in NMP2
• Education regime to encourage next generation to make lifestyle changes
• Repowering OWF within the existing array
• Approved/efficient spatial planning in place
• Marine net gain
• Make green policies a priority
• Investment and increased resources for public sector workers at gov and local levels
• Nature finance market enables marine nature enhancement
• Innovative tech to support co-location. Maximise efficient use of marine space
• Consistent approach to regulation across all sectors
• Al and technology and innovation support evidence gathering and monitoring
• Strong evidence base that is utilised correctly
• Public education on how everyone wins if environment wins
• Holistic decision-making for sector development
• Skills passport established to support move from O&G work to offshore energy
• Planning priorities are specific to areas (one sector wins in one area but not necessarily in others)
• NMP has been followed and implemented
• Appropriate licensing and consenting regime covering all sectors in Scottish waters (some, like oil and gas and gas storage, are reserved)

2025-2045

West

• Regional Marine planning to support community participation and ownership
• Community wealth building (supported by businesses). Community benefit schemes
• Resourced public sector (civil service, local authorities, etc)
• Evaluate the cost (financial and other) of inaction
• Higher risk appetite towards innovations and their impacts (eg licensing) but hard for some sectors
• Clearer guidance on implementation of agreed/aligned policy that is codesigned
• Policy to incentivize business (financial and non-financial) to be nature positive
• Nature biodiversity policy alignment
• Long-term adequate protection of restored nature
• Short-term policy approaches stop
• Adapt to climate change effects on islands (eg flooding, shrinking coastlines)
• Scaling up of nature base solutions in coastal and Marine spaces
• Skills development focused on innovation in nature positive and circular economy
• Increase in public and private funding invested in innovation
• Quantification of externalities ensures businesses pay these costs, not public taxation
• Tourism tax invested to mitigate impact & to support communities
• Conservation tax/fees. With exemptions for locals/enables nature access for all
• Scrutiny via Future Generations Bill/Commission and ESS
• Better evaluations – fail fast and learn
• Innovations drive circular economy, nature positives etc
• More citizens’ assemblies/panels (less reliance on conventional public consultation methods)
• Communities see benefits of change
• Cross party collaboration (de-politicised decision making)
• Strategic and spatial planning for nature restoration with international linkages for migratory species
• Scotland remains active in international bodies (OSPAR etc)
• Polluter pays principal is enacted efficiently so money goes to where the impact is left
• Public, business, communities are willing to adapt to change
• National and international policy alignment
• More devolved and delegated authority for decisions (less central control)
• Digital investment in coastal communities provides more opps for jobs and spending in areas
• International change to nature positive business models
• Businesses change business models: circular, nature, life cycle, co-existence