Blue Economy scenarios: final report
Scottish Government commissioned Waverley in December 2023 to create different scenarios for use of marine space in Scotland to help identify reasoned descriptions of alternative possible futures in order to explore how current and alternative development trajectories might affect the future.
Overview of the Scenarios
The scenarios in summary
47. End of the rainbow describes a future where Scottish Government is facilitative, and society demands long term systemic change. Business, government and society are pursuing net zero. Business has adopted the natural capital model, driven in part by global supply chains and by social values. Government enables and supports change. Rural and coastal communities are thriving as new job opportunities support growth.
48. Winner takes it all describes a future where society demands systemic change, and Scottish government takes a directive approach to delivering long-term sustainability in the blue economy. Strict environmental regulations are enforced, pushing businesses to innovate and adopt sustainable practices. The focus on sustainability attracts investment in green technologies and sustainable fisheries. Society benefits from cleaner environments, sustainable job creation, and a robust economy that doesn't compromise the health of marine ecosystems.
49. Status woe describes a future where Scottish Government adopts a directive stance to deal with declining growth, limited productivity and low levels of investment in skills and technology. Short-term gains overshadow long-term sustainability. Society as a whole doesn’t understand or care about net zero and policies are ineffective. There is no shared strategy for Scotland’s marine environment, which means it is exploited rather than protected for the future.
50. Live fast, die young describes a future where Scottish Government aims to be more collaborative and facilitative, but inconsistent policy making and economic opportunism prevents Scotland from progressing. Economic benefit is prioritised over sustainability and the lack of a coherent long-term strategy to manage Scotland’s blue economy leads to fragmented effort and limited progress. Scotland’s marine environment suffers; what limited effort there is to manage the marine space relates to productive industry rather than environmental stewardship.
51. The broad characteristics of each scenario are set out in the table on page 13.
52. The full scenario narratives are presented in Sections 5-8.
Table 1 . Comparison of the scenarios
Scotland’s economy
End of the rainbow
- High employment
- Lower GDP
- High natural capital business models
Winner takes it all
- Mid level employment
- Mid – high value work
- Informed by a strategic framework
Status woe
- High employment
- …but low skills base, low value creation
- High consumption
Live fast, die young
- High unemployment
- No consistent economic policies
Government
End of the rainbow
- Economic/environmental policies are aligned
- Government supports business transitions
Winner takes it all
- Tries to be collaborative but is forced to take control
- Acts authoritatively and decisively
Status woe
- No vision
- Short term political gain dominates
- Policy is inconsistent and partisan
Live fast, die young
- Highly focused on achieving net zero. No holistic approach
- Annuality drives budget spend
Business
End of the rainbow
- Has adopted new natural capital business models
- Works with communities
Winner takes it all
- Reluctant to transition
- …but does so with government guidance
Status woe
- Little or no innovation
- Low investment in skills
Live fast, die young
- Short term outlook
- Limited investment
Society
End of the rainbow
- Cares about the transition to net zero and practices net zero behaviours
- Values nature
Winner takes it all
- Looks after those who have lost out but expects them to adapt
Status woe
- Doesn’t understand or care about net zero
- Resistant to change
Live fast, die young
- Short term focus
- Dependent mind set
The marine environment
End of the rainbow
- Marine space is a vastly productive landscape
- Increase in job opportunities and social connectivity
- Scotland’s blue economy is resilient
Winner takes it all
- Renewable energy and biodiversity prioritised
- Aquaculture is strong
- Fisheries have declined
Status woe
- No strategic approach, sustained indecision
- Oil and gas predominant
- Marine nature and coastal communities in danger
Live fast, die young
- Has suffered due to focus on land based sectors
- Communities struggle
- Industries are short termist and poor at planning