Blue Economy scenarios: final report

Winner takes it all

77. Winner takes it all describes a future where prevailing behaviours and attitudes seek long term systemic change and where Government is authoritative and directive

Scotland’s government is forced to take tough decisions

78. Scotland’s government – like so many governments around the world – has been caught between a rock and a hard place in its journey to net zero. It has been forced to make tough (some might say impossible) decisions that have prioritised some sectors over others and that have caused some communities to feel left behind.

79. There’s a lot of anger as a result.

80. The thing is, though – and it is perhaps a sign of how far Scotland has come and how forward looking its society is today – that anger is not universal. It is concentrated in those areas and businesses that have lost out in the continuing transition to net zero: communities that simply could not transition quickly enough because of their geography or their limited socio-economic opportunities; businesses that were slow to adapt, became stuck in net positive practices and consequently lost market share.

People (finally) accept that transition creates winners and losers

81. Their anger is understandable, but the wider electorate knows that transition of the scale Scotland has been through creates winners and losers. There is a measure of understanding for those who have struggled with change but a growing impatience too that we all have to get on with it. Scotland’s vision of one shared future does not mean everyone can have everything; it means everyone has a responsibility to each other and to future generations to look after the one home we have.

82. It’s too early to say if those who have lost in the transition will catch up - but the conditions look fair as continued growth brings plenty of opportunities to reskill in green economy sectors. This is not only good for the individuals concerned, but for the economy as a whole - and Scotland certainly needs to increase the productive workforce if it is to achieve its ambition of moving towards a universal basic income.

Progress was slow at first

83. It took some time to get here. For a while, citizens forgot their responsibility to future generations and were too focussed on short term individual economic gain. For the older generation in particular, it was inconceivable that the comfortable life they had worked so hard to achieve was unsustainable; others understood the consequences of their actions very clearly but were unwilling to act in anyone’s interest other than their own.

84. And so, as governments began working together to drive and scale the range of technologies to mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change and minimise conflict around scarce resources, there was a moment where Scotland was in real danger of being left behind.

Scotland’s government takes control

85. Scotland’s government was not willing to let that happen and so it took control in the late 2020s, introducing legislation to drive the long-term systemic change that Scotland had to make. It developed a detailed action plan for change and didn’t shy away from making the tough decisions that were required to deliver it. It cajoled, bullied and negotiated with its partners across the economy and society and buoyed by cross party support and an understanding of the urgency for directive action, drove its plans through.

86. Government’s directive approach was exactly what was needed to unlock the cultural barriers that were in danger of holding Scotland back. These barriers would have eroded naturally if there had been more time, but there was none – and Scotland’s success is down to the speed with which its government chose to take control of the agenda.

87. It was, without doubt, encouraged by the increasingly vocal demands of its younger citizens to act immediately to achieve a nature positive approach across the board and secure the future.

88. These changes weren’t always universally welcomed at home, but it was the right course of action, and it has yielded results.

Rise and fall

89. The marine space today is one of the jewels in Scotland’s crown and one of the main planks of its transition strategy, delivering in two key areas: renewable energy production and biodiversity.

90. Both of these have been challenging goals to deliver but restoring marine biodiversity that is resilient to climate change has been particularly so, especially since it has been achieved from a low base that heavily degraded and in decline just two decades ago. Today, though, the health, condition, and resilience of pelagic, coastal, shelf, and deep sea marine habitats has been restored. Soft coasts such as beaches, tidal flats and saltmarshes are appreciated as natural defences and allowed to respond naturally to changes in sea level. Coastal soils support low intensity grazing, which helps maintain grassland vegetation rich in wildflowers and insects such as burnet moths and dingy skipper butterflies.

91. Chains of coastal wetlands provide freshwater and brackish habitats for birds and opportunities for species to move in response to climate change. The ability of flourishing coastal habitats such as saltmarshes and tidal flats to provide significant carbon sequestration and storage is acknowledged and protected.

92. Marine mammals and species such as basking shark are a frequent sight in Scottish seas. Seabird populations are vibrant, and guillemots, gannets and kittiwakes find abundant food throughout the year. Undisturbed, important blue carbon habitats can regenerate naturally capturing and storing carbon at their full potential.

93. Achieving this has been remarkable – but not without cost. Industrial fishing and fisheries have been reduced significantly to reduce their environmental impact on birds, dolphins, whales and other species who rely on fish as a key food source and who have been affected by pollution.

94. Scotland has, however, enjoyed impressive growth in seafood delivered through net zero aquaculture. Its smart aquaculture programme - intelligent production using robotics, big data and artificial intelligence along the whole aquaculture value chain – ramped up through the 2030s, enabled monitoring systems to track and manage key variables. The shift to more offshore farming with waste capture, embedded renewable energy and better animal health has been slow to arrive for logistical reasons, but now looks set to grow.

95. Carefully situated marine renewables are contributing significantly to Scotland’s net zero targets. Scotland’s mix of offshore and onshore wind and renewable energy has grown steadily over the last two decades and today delivers 85GW through its mix of floating and fixed platforms and wave and tidal.

Nature returns and communities evolve

96. Scotland’s marine environment, then, is in a good place. It is productive and it is contributing significantly to planetary health. The changes have, however, reduced the productive capacity of Scotland’s seas and its coastal communities have been weakened as a result. There are centres of energy production but the more traditional seafood based sectors have declined. The changes to Scotland’s coastal communities are not to everyone’s liking but they are the cost of success. And that cost is far less than it would have been if government had chosen not to act.

97. Key sector performance in Winner takes it all

A = significantly stronger than in 2024

B = slightly stronger than in 2024

C = about the same as in 2024

D = slightly weaker than in 2024

E = significantly weaker than in 2024