Blue Economy scenarios: final report
Scottish Government commissioned Waverley in December 2023 to create different scenarios for use of marine space in Scotland to help identify reasoned descriptions of alternative possible futures in order to explore how current and alternative development trajectories might affect the future.
About the Scenarios
6. The scenarios set out in this report are narrative scenarios, not quantitative models or an assessment of current Scottish Government policy.
7. Narrative scenarios are stories that help stakeholders explore alternative ways the world might develop and what those developments might mean for the challenges and choices that governments, businesses and citizens might face in the future.
8. The underlying principle of scenario thinking is uncertainty. The scenario process is designed to identify the range of uncertainties facing a sector and to explore how they might play out in the future.
9. Some uncertainties are external to the sector and stakeholders consequently have little or no control over them. Scenarios help stakeholders explore how these uncertainties might play out; how they might shape the sector in the future; and how stakeholders might need to adapt to achieve their strategic objectives.
10. Other uncertainties are internal to the sector and relate to factors that stakeholders have more influence over such as investment choices, consumer behaviours and legislative frameworks. Here, scenarios help stakeholders to rehearse the decisions they might need to make under different conditions and to develop shared insight into the external factors that might trigger changes in strategy or policy.
11. Narrative scenarios are subjective and are not predictions or forecasts. They are a strategic modelling tool that offers interesting, meaningful and - in some cases challenging - pictures of the future.
12. The scenarios are also qualitative. The subjective nature of the process – and, in particular, the focus on future uncertainties that may not yet be easily observed, quantified or extrapolated – means that quantitative modelling is rarely meaningful or illuminating to policy discussion.
13. Because the scenarios are not predictions, none of them will be ‘right’ or will necessarily reflect the trajectory of current government policy. That is not their purpose. Rather, they provide an opportunity for stakeholders to explore the dynamics of change together; to develop a shared understanding of the opportunities and challenges that Scotland might face in the future; and to rehearse the strategic choices and decisions they may have to make – individually or collectively – to achieve success.