Blue Economy scenarios: final report

Introduction

1. Scottish Government commissioned Waverley in December 2023 to design, develop and deliver a set of workshops to create different scenarios for use of marine space in Scotland.

2. Their purpose in doing so was to use scenarios to help identify reasoned descriptions of alternative possible futures in order to

• explore how current and alternative development trajectories might affect the future; and to
• consider assumptions about the drivers of change and the impact they might have in the development of Scotland's marine space.

3. Scottish Government were interested, in particular, in using the scenario discussions to

• identify the key political, economic, societal, technological, legislative and environmental (PESTLE) uncertainties that will impact on Scotland’s marine space and its use over the next two decades;
• explore how those uncertainties might combine to create different scenarios and different outcomes for Scotland’s marine space;
• test how different scenarios might impact on Scotland’s capacity to deliver its Blue Economy vision and National Marine Plan (NMP2); and to
• draw on the learning from the scenarios exercise to support the design of resilient policies that can be adapted to changing circumstances in the near and far future.

4. This report sets out the methodology for developing the scenarios, presents the final scenarios and records the key insights that emerged from stakeholder discussions about what the scenarios mean for delivering the Blue Economy vision and developing NMP2.

5. There are 10 sections

• Section 1 introduces our report.
• Section 2 introduces scenarios and scenario thinking
• Section 3 sets out the project methodology in summary and in detail
• Section 4 provides an overview of the scenarios and their key characteristics and differences
• Sections 5-8 presents out the final scenario narratives
• Section 9 provides a strategic analysis of the scenarios
• Section 10 presents the results of the backcasting exercise that illustrate how to achieve a positive future for Scotland’s marine environment
• Section 11 provides recommendations on next steps