Publication - Impact assessment

Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base for Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report - Appendix E - Marine Site Reports

Published: 19 August 2013
Part of: Marine and fisheries
ISBN: 9781782567585

This is Appendix E for the pMPA Impact and Sustainability Report containing the detailed site by site reports. Published separately due to size.

Supporting documents

Loch Creran ( LCR)

Site Area (km ²): 12

Site Summary

Table 1. Summary of Proposed Protected Features, Data Confidence and Conservation Objectives					[ LCR]
Proposed protected features
Biodiversity Features Flame shell beds. Geodiversity Features Quaternary of Scotland - components to be confirmed by SNH. Site Description Loch Creran is situated on the west coast of Scotland and is notable for biogenic reefs that occur in shallow water around its periphery. The Loch Creran MPA proposal boundary is identical to the Loch Creran SAC.
Summary of confidence in presence, extent and condition of proposed protected features and conservation objectives
Proposed Protected Feature	Estimated Area of Feature (by scenario) (km ²)	Confidence in Feature Presence	Confidence in Feature Extent	Confidence in Feature Condition	Conservation Objective and Risk
Biodiversity Features
Flame shell beds	*Lower: 0.19 Intermediate: 0.19 Upper: 0.19	Yes (Heriot-Watt University records, 2006; dive survey, 2012)	Yes	Not known	Conserve
Geodiversity Features
Quaternary of Scotland - components to be confirmed by SNH		Yes	No	Not known	Conserve
Key: * Estimated area based on best available data References: Area of Feature: GeMs Confidence in feature presence and extent: SNH (2012d)

Summary of Costs and Benefits

Table 2a. Site-Specific Economic Costs on Human Activities arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (present value of total costs over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)			[ LCR]
Human Activity	Cost Impact on Activity
Human Activity	Lower Estimate (£Million)	Intermediate Estimate (£Million)	Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Economic Costs (Discounted)
Aquaculture (Shellfish)	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Commercial Fisheries*	0.000	0.000	<0.001
Military	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Total Quantified Economic Costs	0.000	0.000	<0.001
Non-Quantified Economic Costs
Aquaculture (Shellfish)	Possible costs associated with potential future development; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Possible costs associated with potential future development; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Possible costs associated with potential future development; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Commercial Fisheries	Displacement impacts.	Displacement impacts.	Displacement impacts.
Military	See national assessment.	See national assessment.	See national assessment.
Note: For detailed information on economic cost impacts on activities, see Table 4. * These estimates (present value of total change in GVA) assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.

Table 2b. Site-Specific Public Sector Costs arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)			[ LCR]
Description	Public Sector Costs
Description	Lower Estimate (£Million)	Intermediate Estimate (£Million)	Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Public Sector Costs (Discounted)
Preparation of Marine Management Schemes	None	None	None
Preparation of Statutory Instruments	None	None	0.004
Development of voluntary measures	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Site monitoring	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Compliance and enforcement	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Promotion of public understanding	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions	None*	None*	None*
Total Quantified Public Sector Costs	0.000	0.000	0.004
Non-Quantified Public Sector Costs
None identified.
* Regulatory and advisory costs of finfish and shellfish aquaculture assessed at national level.

Table 2c. Summary of Social Impacts and Distribution of Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)										[ LCR]
Key Areas of Social Impact	Description	Scale of Expected Impact across Scenarios, Average (mean no. of jobs affected)	Distributional Analysis
			Location			Fishing Groups Predominantly Affected		Social Groups Affected
			Region	Port	Rural/ Urban/ Island	Gear Types Most Affected	Vessels most affected	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long term sick
Economic costs (commercial fisheries) are expected to be negligible and, therefore, no social impacts are expected.

Table 2d. Site-Specific Benefits arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)		[ LCR]
Benefit	Description
Ecosystem Services Benefits (Moderate and High Benefits)	Relevance	Scale of Benefits
Non-use value of natural environment	Low - Protected features, and contribution of the site to MPA network has non-use values.	Nil - Moderate
Other Benefits
Tourism	Higher biodiversity due to designation, and presence of designations, may attract more tourism activity to local economy.
Contribution to ecologically coherent network	See report Section 7.5.
Note: For detailed information on ecosystem services benefits, see Tables 9 and 10. For detailed information on other benefits, see Table 5 (activities that would benefit) and Table 8 (contribution to ecologically-coherent network).

Summary of Overlaps and Interactions between Proposed Designated Features and Human Activities

Table 3. Overlaps and Potential Interactions between Features and Activities under different Scenarios, indicating need for Assessment of Cost Impacts on Human Activities from Designation of the Site as an MPA																	[ LCR]
	Aggregates	Aquaculture (Finfish)	Aquaculture (Shellfish)	Aviation	Carbon Capture & Storage	Coastal Protection	Commercial Fisheries	Energy Generation	Military Activities	Oil & Gas	Ports & Harbours	Power Interconnectors	Recreational Boating	Shipping	Telecom Cables	Tourism	Water Sports
Biodiversity Features
Flame shell beds	-	-	L/I/U	-	-	-	L/I/ U	-	L/I/U	-	-	-	L/I/U	-	-	L/I/U	L/I/U
Geodiversity Features
Quaternary of Scotland - components to be confirmed by SNH	Not considered to be sensitive at the levels of exposure expected from human activities; thus, not considered in the context of management.
Note: L = Lower Scenario; I = Intermediate Scenario; U = Upper Scenario. Normal font indicates that there is an overlap between the activity and proposed designated feature under that scenario, bold indicates that the overlap results in a potential interaction between the activity and proposed designated feature that has resulted in cost impacts under that scenario. For detail of management measures assessed under each scenario for each activity, and results of the cost estimates, see Table 4.

Human Activity Summaries

Human activities that would be impacted by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 4a. Aquaculture (Shellfish)			[ LCR]
There are three shellfish aquaculture sites whose 1km buffer overlaps with the boundary of the LCR proposed MPA. These are c/o Creagan Farm, South Shian Bay and South Shian Bay 2. All sites overlap with the Flame Shell Beds feature under all scenarios. Flame Shell Beds is not an OSPAR or BAP feature and has a proposed conservation objective to conserve, it is possible that management measures could be required for new planning applications should the feature be designated within an MPA. There is no public information on potential future development within the proposed MPA. In the absence of infomation on potential future developments, no site specific assessment has been possible. A national assessment of the costs of obtaining planning permission for new developments is provided separately.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	N/A	N/A	N/A
Description of one-off costs	N/A	N/A	N/A
Description of recurring costs	N/A	N/A	N/A
Description of non-quantified costs	Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Average annual costs	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Table 4b. Commercial Fisheries (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity)			[ LCR]
According to VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics, pots, nephrops trawls and other gears (under-15m vessels) operate within the LCR proposed MPA. There was no over-15m fleet fishing within the proposed MPA. The value of catches from the LCR area was £3,620 (under-15m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2007-2011, 2012 prices). Provisional ScotMap data indicate that the annual average earnings from the LCR proposed MPA was £5,800, almost entirely from pots, which are not expected to be impacted by management measures. VMS data indicate that there was 1 Norwegian vessel within the LCR proposed MPA, but this vessel will not have been actively fishing within the proposed MPA, which is within 6nm, and is more likely to have been transiting to Oban port. Management measures for the scenarios have been developed based on the sensitivity and vulnerability of the features to the pressures caused by different gear types and SNH recommendations and existing management measures for the Loch Creran SAC. Scallop dredging is already prohibited throughout the loch under the Loch Creran Order, and creel fishing is prohibited in zones, to protect serpulid reefs and horse mussel beds. The flame shell beds are towards the mouth of the loch, where mobile gear fishing is not expected to be used due to the restricted nature of the mouth, and towards the upper part of the loch. Unlike most other sectors, the potential cost of designation on commercial fisheries is a loss or displacement of current (and future) output, caused by restrictions on fishing activities. Any decrease in output will, all else being equal, reduce the Gross Value Added ( GVA) generated by the sector and have knock-on effects on the GVA generated by those industries that supply commercial fishing vessels. The costs estimates for this sector have therefore been estimated in terms of GVA. GVA estimates have been generated by applying fleet segment-specific ' GVA/total income' ratios to the value of landings affected. The GVA ratios have been calculated using data on total income and GVA from the Sea Fish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (published March 2013). Further details on the GVA ratios and the methodology for estimating GVA and employment impacts applied are presented in Appendix C7. It is important to note that all costs presented below assume that all affected landings are lost, that is, there is no displacement of fishing activity to alternative fishing grounds. In reality, some displacement is likely to occur and hence the cost, GVA and employment impacts presented in this table are likely to overestimate the costs.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	No cost impacts expected.	No cost impacts expected.	Closure to mobile bottom-contact gears (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) across flame shell beds.
Description of one-off costs	None.	None.	None.
Description of recurring costs	None.	None.	Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices): Nephrops trawls (<0.001); Other affected gears (<0.001).
Description of non-quantified costs	None.	None.	Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	0.000	0.000	0.000
Average annual costs	0.000	0.000	0.000
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	0.000	0.000	0.000
Economic Impacts (£Million)
Total change in GVA (2014-2033)	0.000	0.000	0.000
Average annual change to GVA	0.000	0.000	0.000
Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033)	0.000	0.000	0.000
Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment	0.0 jobs	0.0 jobs	0.0 jobs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Total change in GVA (2014-2033) = The change in direct GVA in the sector for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual change to GVA = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033) = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site discounted to current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment = The average (mean) reduction in direct employment in the sector plus the indirect reduction in employment on the sector's suppliers.

Table 4c. Military			[ LCR]
Two military practice areas (Linhe (X5624), and one submarine exercise area) overlap with the flame shell beds feature of the LCR proposed MPA boundary under all scenarios. The features and associated habitats which overlap with military activities have not been described as vulnerable to MoD activities in this proposed MPA. It is assumed that management relating to MoD activity will be coordinated through the MoD's Maritime Environmental Sustainability Appraisal Tool ( MESAT) which the MoD uses to assist in meeting its environmental obligations. This process will include operational guidance to reduce significant impacts of military activities on MPAs. It is assumed that the MoD will incur additional costs in adjusting MESAT and other MoD environmental assessment tools in order to consider whether its activities will impact on the conservation objectives of MPAs and also incur additional costs in adjusting electronic charts to consider MPAs. However, these costs will be incurred at national level and hence no site-specific cost assessments have been made.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	See National Assessment.	See National Assessment.	See National Assessment.
Description of one-off costs
Description of recurring costs
Description of non-quantified costs
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Average annual costs	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Human activities that would benefit from designation of the site as an MPA

Table 5. Human Activities that would Benefit from Designation of the Site as an MPA				[ LCR]
Activity	Description	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Tourism	Coastal areas are well represented when considering the locations of various tourist related sites within Scotland with a range of site types present in all regions including the West. Where significant impacts to recreational boating or water sports have been identified for the site, there could also be consequential impacts on tourism.	Tourism may benefit from the designation of the MPA as an added attraction to the destination. In addition, there may also be indirect benefits to tourism as a result of benefits to some water sports activities, for example, recreational angling.	The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate.	The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Sea Angling	Sea angling is carried out along most of the Scottish coastline within 6nm ( SSACN). LCR proposed MPA is a coastal site and is located wholly within 6nm of the UK coastline. Therefore sea angling overlaps with all features and there corresponding extents within the proposed MPA. No management restrictions upon this activity are required.	Sea anglers could benefit from any on-site positive effects resulting from the MPA designation and corresponding management restrictions on sector activities including an increase in the size and diversity of species which in turn is expected to increase the attraction of a site for anglers (Fletcher et al. 2012).	The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate.	The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.

Human activities that are present but which would be unaffected by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 6. Human Activities that are Present but which would be Unaffected by Designation of the Site as an MPA [ LCR]
Activity	Description
Recreational Boating	There is one cruising route that intersects the LCR proposed MPA boundary that overlaps flame shell beds under all scenarios, although cruising routes are not expected to require any additional management measures. One mooring area owned by The Crown Estate is in close proximity to flame shell beds, although no management is required as there is no physical overlap. Any future expansion of the mooring area should not encroach on the flame shell bed extent.

Table 6. Human Activities that are Present but which would be Unaffected by Designation of the Site as an MPA [ LCR]

Activity

Description

Recreational Boating

There is one cruising route that intersects the LCR proposed MPA boundary that overlaps flame shell beds under all scenarios, although cruising routes are not expected to require any additional management measures. One mooring area owned by The Crown Estate is in close proximity to flame shell beds, although no management is required as there is no physical overlap. Any future expansion of the mooring area should not encroach on the flame shell bed extent.

Social and Distributional Analysis of Impacts from Designation of the Site as an MPA

Table 7a. Social Impacts Associated with Quantified and Non-Quantified Economic Costs					[ LCR]
Sector	Potential Economic Impacts	Economic Costs and GVA ( PV)	Area of Social Impact Affected	Mitigation	Significance of Social impact
Commercial Fisheries	No social impacts are expected.
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.

Table 7b. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Location, Age and Gender								[ LCR]
Sector/Impact	Location			Age			Gender
	Region	Ports	Rural, Urban, Coastal or Island	Children	Working Age	Pensionable Age	Male	Female
Commercial Fisheries	No social impacts are expected.
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.

Table 7c. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Fishing Groups, Income Groups and Social Groups								[ LCR]
Sector/Impact	Fishing Groups		Income Groups			Social Groups
Sector/Impact	Vessel Category <15m >15m	Gear Types/Sector	10% Most Deprived	Middle 80%	10% Most Affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With Disability or Long-term Sick
Commercial Fisheries	No social impacts are expected.
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.

Potential Contribution of the Site to an Ecologically-Coherent Network

Table 8. Overview of Features Proposed for Designation and how these contribute to an Ecologically Coherent Network of MPAs					[ LCR]
Feature Name	Representation	Replication	Linkages	Geographic Range and Variation	Resilience
Flame shell beds	Provides representation for flame shell beds in OSPAR Region III.	Represents one of five recommended areas for protection of flame shell beds in Scottish seas.	Not currently understood for flame shell beds.	All records of flame shell beds are from OSPAR Region III. The recommended MPA areas would to some extent reflect the geographic range of flame shell beds in Scottish seas.	Not listed by OSPAR as threatened and/or declining although there is evidence of damage and decline on Scotland's seas. The MPA may increase resilience.
JNCC (pers. comm.); SNH and JNCC. (2012). Assessment of the potential adequacy of the Scottish MPA network for MPA search features: summary of the application of the stage 5 selection guidelines. Available online from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/marine/marine-environment/mpanetwork/engagement/270612.

Anticipated Benefits to Ecosystem Services

Table 9. Summary of Ecosystem Services Benefits arising from Designation of the Site as an MPA ^[4]								[ LCR]
Services	Relevance to Site	Baseline Level	Estimated Impacts of Designation			Value Weighting	Scale of Benefits	Confidence
Services	Relevance to Site	Baseline Level	Lower	Intermediate	Upper	Value Weighting	Scale of Benefits	Confidence
Fish for human consumption	Low. Habitats make small contribution to food webs.	Stocks not at MSY	Nil	Nil	Low	Minimal. Site fishing grounds have very low value	Minimal	High
Fish for non-human consumption	Low. Habitats make small contribution to food webs.	Stocks reduced from potential maximum	Nil	Nil	Low	Minimal. Site fishing grounds have very low value	Minimal	High
Gas and climate regulation	Nil	Nil	Nil	Nil	Nil	Moderate	Nil	High
Natural hazard protection	Minimal	Low	Nil			Low	Nil	High
Regulation of pollution	Minimal	Low	Nil	Nil	Low	Low	Nil - Minimal	High
Non-use value of natural environment	Low - protected feature, and contribution of the site to MPA network, have non-use value.	Non-use value of the site may decline, vulnerable to mobile bottom fishing gears	Nil, no change in key characteristics of site		Moderate - protection of feature of site from decline, possibly allowing some recovery	Low, Although flame shell is charismatic species, it is sites only feature	Nil - Moderate	Moderate
Recreation	Low	Limited activity	Nil		Minimal - slightly higher biodiversity encountered by boating	Low	Minimal	Moderate
Research and Education	Minimal	Nil - Low	Nil		Minimal	Low	Minimal	Moderate
Total value of changes in ecosystem services			Nil for lower scenario, Low for upper scenarios				Minimal	Moderate

Human Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Loch Creran

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Loch Creran ( LCR)

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