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Publication - Impact assessment

Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base for Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report - Appendix E - Marine Site Reports

Published
19 August 2013
Part of
Marine and fisheries
ISBN
9781782567585

This is Appendix E for the pMPA Impact and Sustainability Report containing the detailed site by site reports. Published separately due to size.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

Noss Head ( NOH)

Site Area (km 2): 9

Site Summary

Table 1. Summary of Proposed Protected Features, Data Confidence and Conservation Objectives [ NOH]
Proposed protected features
Biodiversity Features
Horse mussel beds.

Geodiversity Features
None.

Site Description
Noss Head is a small inshore site extending from the coast just south of Sinclair's Bay in Caithness, north east Scotland. The site runs roughly parallel to the shore in depths up to 50m.
Summary of confidence in presence, extent and condition of proposed protected features and conservation objectives
Proposed Protected Feature Estimated Area of Feature (by scenario) (km 2) Confidence in
Feature Presence 		Confidence in
Feature Extent 		Confidence in
Feature Condition 		Conservation Objective and Risk
Biodiversity Features
Horse mussel beds

Lower: 2.99
Intermediate: 2.99
Upper: 8.72

 Yes ( SSE survey data, 2010; Marine Scotland Science survey data, 2011) Yes ( SSE survey data, 2010; Marine Scotland Science data, 2011) Not known Conserve
Geodiversity Features
N/A
Key: * Estimated area based on best available data
References:
Area of Feature: GeMs
Confidence in feature presence and extent: SNH (2012l)

Summary of Costs and Benefits

Table 2a. Site-Specific Economic Costs on Human Activities arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (present value of total costs over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ NOH]
Human Activity Cost Impact on Activity
Lower Estimate (£Million) Intermediate Estimate (£Million) Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Economic Costs (Discounted)
Commercial Fisheries* 0.002 0.003 0.012
Energy Generation 0.012 0.018 0.018
Total Quantified Economic Costs 0.014 0.021 0.03
Non-Quantified Economic Costs
Commercial Fisheries
  • Displacement impacts.
  • Displacement impacts.
  • Displacement impacts.
Energy Generation
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Note: For detailed information on economic cost impacts on activities, see Table 4.
* These estimates (present value of total change in GVA) assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.
Table 2b. Site-Specific Public Sector Costs arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ NOH]
Description Public Sector Costs
Lower Estimate (£Million) Intermediate Estimate (£Million) Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Public Sector Costs (Discounted)
Preparation of Marine Management Schemes None None None
Preparation of Statutory Instruments None None None
Development of voluntary measures National assessment National assessment National assessment
Site monitoring National assessment National assessment National assessment
Compliance and enforcement National assessment National assessment National assessment
Promotion of public understanding National assessment National assessment National assessment
Regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions 0.001 0.001 0.001
Total Quantified Public Sector Costs 0.001 0.001 0.001
Non-Quantified Public Sector Costs
None identified.
Table 2c. Summary of Social Impacts and Distribution of Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ NOH]
Key Areas of Social Impact Description Scale of Expected Impact across Scenarios, Average (mean no. of jobs affected) Distributional Analysis
Location Fishing Groups Predominantly Affected Social Groups Affected
Region Port Rural/ Urban/ Island Gear Types Most Affected Vessels most affected Crofters Ethnic minorities With disability or long term sick
Employment with consequent impacts on: Health, Crime, Environment, and Culture and Heritage Commercial fisheries - Loss of jobs (direct and indirect) Lower: 0 jobs
Intermediate: 0 jobs
Upper: 0 jobs		 N/A Unknown Impacts concentrated in rural coastal areas Cannot be identified for confidentiality reasons. Lower: <15m Upper: <15m No Impact. No Impact. No employment data but unlikely to be employed in fisheries.
If any energy generation developments do not proceed as a result of designation (due to additional costs, project delays, loss of investor confidence), there may be significant social impacts due to job losses (non-quantified).
Note: For detailed information on socio-economic impacts by sector, see Table 7a. For more detailed information on distributional impacts of quantified costs by sector see Tables 7b and 7c.
Table 2d. Site-Specific Benefits arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ NOH]
Benefit Description
Ecosystem Services Benefits (Moderate and High Benefits) Relevance Scale of Benefits
Non-use value of natural environment Low. Protected features and contribution of the site to MPA network has non-use values. Low - Moderate
Other Benefits
Tourism Higher biodiversity due to designation, and presence of designations, may attract more tourism activity to local economy.
Contribution to ecologically coherent network See report Section 7.5.
Note: For detailed information on ecosystem services benefits, see Tables 9 and 10. For detailed information on other benefits, see Table 5 (activities that would benefit) and Table 8 (contribution to ecologically-coherent network).

Summary of Overlaps and Interactions between Proposed Designated Features and Human Activities

Table 3. Overlaps and Potential Interactions between Features and Activities under different Scenarios, indicating need for Assessment of Cost Impacts on Human Activities from Designation of the Site as an MPA [ NOH]
Aggregates Aquaculture (Finfish) Aquaculture (Shellfish) Aviation Carbon Capture & Storage Coastal Protection Commercial Fisheries Energy Generation Military Activities Oil & Gas Ports & Harbours Power Interconnectors Recreational Boating Shipping Telecom Cables Tourism Water Sports
Biodiversity Features
Horse mussel beds - - - - - - L/ I/ U L/ I/ U - - - - L/I/U - - L/I/U L/I/U
Geodiversity Features
N/A
Note: L = Lower Scenario; I = Intermediate Scenario; U = Upper Scenario. Normal font indicates that there is an overlap between the activity and proposed designated feature under that scenario, bold indicates that the overlap results in a potential interaction between the activity and proposed designated feature that has resulted in cost impacts under that scenario.
For detail of management measures assessed under each scenario for each activity, and results of the cost estimates, see Table 4.

Human Activity Summaries

Human activities that would be impacted by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 4a. Commercial Fisheries (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) [ NOH]

According to VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics, dredges (over-15m) and pots and other gears (under-15m vessels) operate within the NOH proposed MPA. The value of landings from the NOH area was £1,400 (over-15m vessels) and £7,340 (under-15m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2007-2011, 2012 prices). Landings from the over-15m vessels were made predominantly into Wick (94% by value). For the over-15m fleet, there was sparse activity predominantly by dredgers in the southern part of the proposed MPA across the area of horse mussel beds.

Provisional ScotMap data indicate that the annual average earnings from the NOH proposed MPA was £8,000, almost all from pots (predominantly for brown crab and lobster). The coverage for ScotMap interviews in the region was 66.4% (total value of reported landings from the Fisheries Information Network for those vessels included in the ScotMap value analysis expressed as a percentage of the total reported landings for all vessels <15m). Therefore the ScotMap estimate is likely to under-represent the value of fishing by under-15m vessels, and the spatial representation of the value of fishing is less robust than in regions where coverage is higher.

VMS data indicate that there are no non- UK vessels fishing within the NOH proposed MPA.

Management measures for the scenarios have been developed based on the sensitivity and vulnerability of the features to the pressures caused by different gear types and SNH recommendations.

Unlike most other sectors, the potential cost of designation on commercial fisheries is a loss or displacement of current (and future) output, caused by restrictions on fishing activities. Any decrease in output will, all else being equal, reduce the Gross Value Added ( GVA) generated by the sector and have knock-on effects on the GVA generated by those industries that supply commercial fishing vessels. The costs estimates for this sector have therefore been estimated in terms of GVA.

GVA estimates have been generated by applying fleet segment-specific 'GVA/total income' ratios to the value of landings affected. The GVA ratios have been calculated using data on total income and GVA from the Sea Fish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (published March 2013). Further details on the GVA ratios and the methodology for estimating GVA and employment impacts applied are presented in Appendix C7.

It is important to note that all costs presented below assume that all affected landings are lost, that is, there is no displacement of fishing activity to alternative fishing grounds. In reality, some displacement is likely to occur and hence the cost, GVA and employment impacts presented in this table are likely to overestimate the costs.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • Remove 50% of mobile bottom-contact gear pressure (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) across horse mussel beds.
  • Closure to mobile bottom-contact gears (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) across horse mussel beds.
  • Closure to mobile bottom-contact gears (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) across horse mussel beds.
Description of one-off costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of recurring costs
  • Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Dredges (<0.001).
  • Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Nephrops trawls (<0.001);
  • Other trawls (<0.001);
  • Dredges (<0.001).
  • Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Dredges (<0.001).
  • Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Nephrops trawls (<0.001);
  • Other trawls (<0.001);
  • Dredges (<0.001).
  • Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Whitefish seines (<0.001);
  • Dredges (0.001).
  • Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Nephrops trawls (<0.001);
  • Other trawls (<0.001);
  • Dredges (<0.001).
Description of non-quantified costs
  • Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.
  • Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.
  • Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033) 0.005 0.010 0.040
Average annual costs <0.001 0.001 0.002
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) 0.004 0.008 0.030
Economic Impacts (£Million)
Total change in GVA (2014-2033) 0.003 0.004 0.017
Average annual change to GVA <0.001 <0.001 <0.001
Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033) 0.002 0.003 0.012
Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment 0.0 jobs 0.0 jobs 0.0 jobs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Total change in GVA (2014-2033) = The change in direct GVA in the sector for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual change to GVA = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033) = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site discounted to current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment = The average (mean) reduction in direct employment in the sector plus the indirect reduction in employment on the sector's suppliers.
Table 4b. Energy Generation [ NOH]

There are no energy generation activities currently operating within the NOH proposed MPA boundary or corresponding buffer zones. Thus, economic costs and management measures associated with energy generation in this proposed MPA are described in light of known possible future developments.

Within the NOH proposed MPA boundary, one potential future export cable route for numerous tidal energy generation developments (Brough Ness, Ness of Duncansby, Inner Sound and Cantick Head) could overlap the OSPAR and BAP designated habitat feature 'horse mussel beds' under the upper scenario. However, the 1km buffer of this cable route could overlap horse mussel beds under all scenarios ( i.e. lower, intermediate and upper extent). The conservation objective for this habitat feature is to conserve and, in turn, SNH management options suggest reducing the activity in such areas. Horse mussel beds are of high sensitivity to physical change (to another seabed type); therefore, mitigation costs may be associated with re-routing the export cable around the feature, whereby it should not be trenched because this is likely to affect the integrity of the bed. Given the number of energy generation projects the export cable route could be incorporated, it is estimated that management costs may be applicable as early as the year 2014.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to horse mussel beds within 1km of proposed activities.
  • Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to horse mussel beds within 1km of proposed activities; and
  • Additional survey costs incurred to inform new licence applications.
  • Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to horse mussel beds within 1km of proposed activities; and
  • Additional survey costs incurred to inform new licence applications.
Description of one-off costs
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k. Application estimated for submission in 2014 (see description above).
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k. Application estimated for submission in 2014 (see description above); and
  • Additional survey costs - £5k per linear km of development (1.2km).
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k. Application estimated for submission in 2014 (see description above); and
  • Additional survey costs - £5k per linear km of development (1.2km).
Description of recurring costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of non-quantified costs
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033) 0.012 0.018 0.018
Average annual costs 0.001 0.001 0.001
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) 0.012 0.018 0.018
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Human activities that would benefit from designation of the site as an MPA

Table 5. Human Activities that would Benefit from Designation of the Site as an MPA [ NOH]
Activity Description Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Tourism Coastal areas are well represented when considering the locations of various tourist related sites within Scotland with a range of site types present in all regions including the North. Where significant impacts to recreational boating or water sports have been identified for the site, there could also be consequential impacts on tourism. Tourism may benefit from the designation of the MPA as an added attraction to the destination. In addition, there may also be indirect benefits to tourism as a result of benefits to some water sports activities, for example, recreational angling. The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate. The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Sea Angling Sea angling is carried out along most of the Scottish coastline within 6nm ( SSACN). The NOH proposed MPA is a coastal site and is located wholly within 6nm of the UK coastline. Therefore, sea angling overlaps with all features and there corresponding extents within the proposed MPA. No management restrictions upon this activity are required. Sea anglers could benefit from any on-site positive effects resulting from the MPA designation and corresponding management restrictions on sector activities including an increase in the size and diversity of species which in turn is expected to increase the attraction of a site for anglers (Fletcher et al. 2012). The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate. The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.

Human activities that are present but which would be unaffected by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 6. Human Activities that are Present but which would be Unaffected by Designation of the Site as an MPA [ NOH]
Activity Description
Recreational Boating One cruising route with medium traffic intersects with the NOH proposed MPA boundary. Although it overlaps with horse mussel beds under all scenarios, it is not considered that the vessels transiting the cruising route will require any additional management measures.

Social and Distributional Analysis of Impacts from Designation of the Site as an MPA

Table 7a. Social Impacts Associated with Quantified and Non-Quantified Economic Costs [ NOH}
Sector Potential Economic Impacts Economic Costs and GVA ( PV) Area of Social Impact Affected Mitigation Significance of Social impact
Commercial Fisheries Loss of traditional fishing grounds with consequent loss in landings, value of landings and hence GVA

Annual Average Loss in Value of Landings*:
Lower: £0.01m
Intermediate: <£0.01m
Upper: <£0.01m

Annual Average Loss in GVA (direct and indirect)*:
Lower: £0.00m
Intermediate: <£0.01m
Upper: <£0.01m

 Culture and heritage - impact on traditions from loss of fishing grounds. Health: 0 (for individuals affected who do not find alternative employment)
If the loss in GVA significant enough, risk of job losses (direct and indirect) Job Losses*:
Lower: 0.0 jobs
Intermediate: 0.0 jobs
Upper: 0.0 jobs		 A reduction in employment can generate a wide range of social impacts which, in turn, can generate a range of short and long term costs for wider society and the public purse:
  • Healt h (increase in illness, mental stress, loss of self esteem
and risk of depression);
  • Increase in crime; and
  • Reduction in f u ture emp lo y me n t prospects/future earnings.
 Support to retrain those affected and for the promotion of new small businesses in fisheries dependent areas.
Displacement Effects Not Quantified Quantified impact on jobs assume worst case scenario ( i.e. no redistribution of effort). In reality displacement effects likely to occur with socio-economic consequences:
  • Empl o y m e nt - reduced employment due to changes in costs and earnings profile of vessels ( e.g. increased fuel costs, gear development and adaption costs, additional quota costs);
  • Conflict/Loss of social cohesion - diminishing fishing grounds may increase conflict with other vessels/gear types, increase social tensions within fishing communities and lead to a loss of social cohesion among fleets. Could also lead to increased operating costs as a result of lost or damaged gear. Equally, gear conflict could reduce where gears are restricted/prohibited;
  • Healt h - increased risks to the safety of fishers and vessels and increased stress due to moving to lesser known areas;
  • E n v ironmental - increased impact in targeting new areas, longer streaming times and increased fuel consumption; and
  • Cul t ur e a nd her i tag e - change in traditional fishing patterns/ activities.
 0
Energy Generation Additional operational costs Quantified Cost Impact (2014-2033): £0.012 - 0.018m Future employment opportunities - if increased operational costs associated with management measures render projects unviable or restrict project size there will be a negative impact on economic activity and job creation in this sector. 0

Costs associated with delays during the consenting process

Loss of investor confidence (developments do not proceed)

 Not Quantified

Future employment opportunities - if the delays deter investments there will be a negative impact on economic activity and future job creation in this sector.

Environment - possible negative impact in relation to climate change and the ability of the Scottish Government to meet its 2020 renewables targets, decarbonisation targets and climate change targets. There would also be consequent financial implications of climate change impacts.

This impact is uncertain and is only likely to arise under the upper scenario. JNCC's current advice is that the intermediate scenario represents their best view on management requirements.

 xxx (under the upper scenario only)
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
* These estimates assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.
Table 7b. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Location, Age and Gender [ NOH]
Sector/Impact Location Age Gender
Region Ports Rural, Urban, Coastal or Island Children Working Age Pensionable Age Male Female
None identified.
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
Table 7c. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Fishing Groups, Income Groups and Social Groups [ NOH]
Sector/Impact Fishing Groups Income Groups Social Groups
Vessel Category <15m >15m* Gear Types/Sector* 10% Most Deprived Middle 80% 10% Most Affluent Crofters Ethnic minorities With Disability or Long-term Sick

Commercial Fisheries

Reduction in landed value, GVA and employment

 Lower: <15m
Upper: <15m		 Cannot be identified for confidentiality reasons. 0 0

x

Information only available on average incomes not the distribution of income. Therefore, not clear whether this group will be affected.

 0 0 0

Fish Processors

Reduction in local landings at landing ports

 Shellfish: xx Demersal: x Pelagic: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
* Based on costs to gear types/sectors and vessel categories affected under the intermediate scenario.

Potential Contribution of the Site to an Ecologically-Coherent Network

Table 8. Overview of Features Proposed for Designation and how these contribute to an Ecologically Coherent Network of MPAs [ NOH]
Feature Name Representation Replication Linkages Geographic Range
and Variation 		Resilience
Horse mussel beds Provides representation of horse mussel beds in OSPAR Region II. Noss Head is the largest horse mussel bed in Scotland's seas. Represents one of four MPA areas recommended for protection of horse mussel beds. Not currently understood for horse mussel beds. The MPA area covers the largest horse mussel bed in Scotland's seas. Horse mussel beds are listed by OSPAR as threatened and/or declining. The MPA may increase resilience.
JNCC (pers. comm.); SNH and JNCC. (2012). Assessment of the potential adequacy of the Scottish MPA network for MPA search features: summary of the application of the stage 5 selection guidelines.
Available online from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/marine/marine-environment/mpanetwork/engagement/270612.

Anticipated Benefits to Ecosystem Services

Table 9. Summary of Ecosystem Services Benefits arising from Designation of the Site as an MPA [12] [ NOH]
Services Relevance
to Site 		Baseline Level Estimated Impacts of Designation Value Weighting Scale of Benefits Confidence
Lower Intermediate Upper
Fish for human consumption Low. Habitats make contribution to food webs. Stocks not at MSY Nil Low. Some recovery of benthic species possible. Low - Moderate. Feature is productive for food webs, but site is small Nil - Low Moderate
Fish for non-human consumption Stocks reduced from potential maximum
Gas and climate regulation Nil Nil Nil Nil Low Moderate Nil High
Natural hazard protection Nil Nil Nil, would not affect stability of coastline Low Nil High
Regulation of pollution Moderate Moderate Low Low - Moderate, may be maintained by protecting seabed features Low Low Low, uncertain extent of feature
Non-use value of natural environment Low - protected feature and contribution of the site to MPA network, have non-use value. Non-use value of the site may decline Low - Moderate, depending on extent of feature, intermediate and upper scenarios more likely to allow some recovery Moderate Low - Moderate Low, uncertain extent of feature
Recreation Minimal Low Minimal - Low, slightly higher biodiversity encountered by boating Moderate Minimal Moderate
Research and Education Low Biological features have research value but there are substitutes Minimal - Low, depending on extent of feature, intermediate and upper scenarios more likely to allow some recovery Low Nil - Minimal Low
Total value of changes in ecosystem services Minimal for lower scenario, low for upper scenarios Minimal - Low Low

Human Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Noss Head

Fishing Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Noss Head

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