Publication - Impact assessment

Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base for Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report - Appendix E - Marine Site Reports

Published: 19 August 2013
Part of: Marine and fisheries
ISBN: 9781782567585

This is Appendix E for the pMPA Impact and Sustainability Report containing the detailed site by site reports. Published separately due to size.

Supporting documents

Mousa to Boddam ( MTB)

Site Area (km ²): 13

Site Summary

Table 1. Summary of Proposed Protected Features, Data Confidence and Conservation Objectives					[ MTB]
Proposed protected features
Biodiversity Features Sandeels. Geodiversity Features Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - componentsto be confirmed by SNH Site Description The Mousa to Boddam MPA proposal covers two areas around the island of Mousa and off the coast of Boddam in the south-east Shetland region.
Summary of confidence in presence, extent and condition of proposed protected features and conservation objectives
Proposed Protected Feature	Estimated Area of Feature (by scenario) (km ²)	Confidence in Feature Presence	Confidence in Feature Extent	Confidence in Feature Condition	Conservation Objective and Risk
Biodiversity Features
Sandeels	*Lower: 10.352 Intermediate: 10.32 Upper: 13.36	Yes (Marine Science Scotland survey data, 1985 - 2007)	Yes	Not known	Conserve
Geodiversity Features
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - components to be confirmed by SNH		Yes	Partial - additional work needed to map features	Not known	Conserve
Key: * Estimated area based on best available data References: Area of Feature: GeMs Confidence in feature presence and extent: SNH (2012k)

Summary of Costs and Benefits

Table 2a. Site-Specific Economic Costs on Human Activities arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (present value of total costs over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)			[ MTB]
Human Activity	Cost Impact on Activity
Human Activity	Lower Estimate (£Million)	Intermediate Estimate (£Million)	Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Economic Costs (Discounted)
Energy Generation	0.009	0.009	0.037
Total Quantified Economic Costs	0.009	0.009	0.037
Non-Quantified Economic Costs
Energy Generation	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Note: For detailed information on economic cost impacts on activities, see Table 4.

Table 2b. Site-Specific Public Sector Costs arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)			[ MTB]
Description	Public Sector Costs
Description	Lower Estimate (£Million)	Intermediate Estimate (£Million)	Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Public Sector Costs (Discounted)
Preparation of Marine Management Schemes	None	None	None
Preparation of Statutory Instruments	None	0.004	0.004
Development of voluntary measures	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Site monitoring	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Compliance and enforcement	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Promotion of public understanding	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions	0.001	0.001	0.001
Total Quantified Public Sector Costs	0.001	0.005	0.005
Non-Quantified Public Sector Costs
None identified.

Table 2c. Summary of Social Impacts and Distribution of Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)										[ MTB]
Key Areas of Social Impact	Description	Scale of Expected Impact across Scenarios, Average (mean no. of jobs affected)	Distributional Analysis
			Location			Fishing Groups Predominantly Affected		Social Groups Affected
			Region	Port	Rural/ Urban/ Island	Gear Types Most Affected	Vessels most affected	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long term sick
None identified (Commercial Fisheries).
If any energy generation developments do not proceed as a result of designation (due to additional costs, project delays, loss of investor confidence), there may be significant social impacts due to job losses (non-quantified).

Table 2d. Site-Specific Benefits arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)		[ MTB]
Benefit	Description
Ecosystem Services Benefits (Moderate and High Benefits)	Relevance	Scale of Benefits
Non-use value of natural environment	Low	Nil - Moderate
Other Benefits
Tourism	Higher biodiversity due to designation, and presence of designations, may attract more tourism activity to local economy.
Contribution to ecologically coherent network	See report Section 7.5.
Note: For detailed information on ecosystem services benefits, see Tables 9 and 10. For detailed information on other benefits, see Table 5 (activities that would benefit) and Table 8 (contribution to ecologically-coherent network).

Summary of Overlaps and Interactions between Proposed Designated Features and Human Activities

Table 3. Overlaps and Potential Interactions between Features and Activities under different Scenarios, indicating need for Assessment of Cost Impacts on Human Activities from Designation of the Site as an MPA																	[ MTB]
	Aggregates	Aquaculture (Finfish)	Aquaculture (Shellfish)	Aviation	Carbon Capture & Storage	Coastal Protection	Commercial Fisheries	Energy Generation	Military Activities	Oil & Gas	Ports & Harbours	Power Interconnectors	Recreational Boating	Shipping	Telecom Cables	Tourism	Water Sports
Biodiversity Features
Sandeels	-	-	-	-	-	-	L/I/U	L/ I/ U	-	-	-	-	U	-	L/I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U
Geodiversity Features
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - components to be confirmed by SNH	Not considered to be sensitive at the levels of exposure expected from human activities; thus, not considered in the context of management.
Note: L = Lower Scenario; I = Intermediate Scenario; U = Upper Scenario. Normal font indicates that there is an overlap between the activity and proposed designated feature under that scenario, bold indicates that the overlap results in a potential interaction between the activity and proposed designated feature that has resulted in cost impacts under that scenario. For detail of management measures assessed under each scenario for each activity, and results of the cost estimates, see Table 4.

Human Activity Summaries

Human activities that would be impacted by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 4a. Energy Generation			[ MTB]
There are no energy generation activities currently operating within the MTB proposed MPA boundary or corresponding buffer zones. Thus, economic costs and management measures associated with energy generation in this proposed MPA are described in light of known possible future developments. Within the MTB proposed MPA boundary, one potential future export cable route for a wind energy generation Area of Search (AoS) overlaps the BAP designated mobile species feature Sandeels under all scenarios ( i.e. lower, intermediate and upper extent). Therefore, additional management costs may be incurred.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to Sandeels within 1km of proposed activities.	Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to Sandeels within 1km of proposed activities.	Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to Sandeels within 1km of proposed activities; and Additional survey costs incurred to inform new licence applications.
Description of one-off costs	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k. Application estimated to be submitted in 2024 (wind energy AoS export cable route).	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k. Application estimated to be submitted in 2024 (wind energy AoS export cable route).	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k. Application estimated to be submitted in 2024 (wind energy AoS export cable route); and Additional survey costs - £5k per linear km of development (8km).
Description of recurring costs	None.	None.	None.
Description of non-quantified costs	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	0.012	0.012	0.052
Average annual costs	0.001	0.001	0.003
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	0.009	0.009	0.037
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Human activities that would benefit from designation of the site as an MPA

Table 5. Human Activities that would Benefit from Designation of the Site as an MPA				[ MTB]
Activity	Description	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Tourism	Coastal areas are well represented when considering the locations of various tourist related sites within Scotland with a range of site types present in all regions including the North. Where significant impacts to recreational boating or water sports have been identified for the site, there could also be consequential impacts on tourism.	Tourism may benefit from the designation of the MPA as an added attraction to the destination. In addition, there may also be indirect benefits to tourism as a result of benefits to some water sports activities, for example, recreational angling.	The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate.	The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Sea Angling	Sea angling is carried out along most of the Scottish coastline within 6nm ( SSACN). MTB proposed MPA is a coastal site and is located wholly within 6nm of the UK coastline. Therefore, sea angling overlaps with all features and there corresponding extents within the proposed MPA. No management restrictions upon this activity are required.	Sea anglers could benefit from any on-site positive effects resulting from the MPA designation and corresponding management restrictions on sector activities including an increase in the size and diversity of species which in turn is expected to increase the attraction of a site for anglers (Fletcher et al. 2012).	The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate.	The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.

Human activities that are present but which would be unaffected by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 6. Human Activities that are Present but which would be Unaffected by Designation of the Site as an MPA [ MTB]
Activity	Description
Commercial Fisheries	Whitefish trawls and other trawls (over-15m) and dredges, pots and other gears (under-15m vessels) operate within the MTB proposed MPA. The value of landings from the MTB area was £15,600 (over-15m vessels) and £4,620 (under-15m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2007-2011, 2012 prices). Provisional ScotMap data coverage does not extend as far as Shetland and therefore there are no data for the MTB proposed MPA. Landings from the over-15m vessels were into Lerwick (87% by value) and Sandwick (12%). The targeted sandeel fishery is not currently active. There is some evidence that the use of scallop dredges can kill sandeels buried in sediment but further research is required to determine whether it poses a risk to achieving the conservation objectives. Therefore, no cost impacts on fisheries are expected.
Recreational Boating	There is one anchorage within the MTB proposed MPA boundary that overlaps with the feature extent for sandeels, under the upper scenario only. No additional management measures are anticipated as being required, as whilst the feature is sensitive to surface abrasion the substrate it inhabits is mobile and dynamic in nature. Therefore, the localised pressures associated with anchoring are felt to be minimal in such an environment.
Telecom Cables	One telecom cable (Shefa-2 Seg 8) is within 1km of the sandeels feature (all scenarios) of the MTB proposed MPA. No additional costs are foreseen in relation to the existing cable. The cable was installed in 2008 and would not be expected to require replacement within the assessment period.

Social and Distributional Analysis of Impacts from Designation of the Site as an MPA

Table 7a. Identification of Social Impacts from Designation of the Site as an MPA and their significance (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)					[ MTB]
Sector	Economic Impacts	Economic Costs and GVA ( PV)	Consequent Social Impacts	Mitigation	Significance of Social impact
Energy Generation	Additional operational costs	Quantified Economic Costs (2014-2033): £0.009 - 0.037m	Future employment opportunities - if increased operational costs associated with management measures render projects unviable or restrict project size there will be a negative impact on economic activity and job creation in this sector.		0
Energy Generation	Costs associated with delays during the consenting process Loss of investor confidence (developments do not proceed)	Not quantified	Future employment opportunities - if the delays deter investments there will be a negative impact on economic activity and future job creation in this sector. Environment - possible negative impact in relation to climate change and the ability of the Scottish Government to meet its 2020 renewables targets, decarbonisation targets and climate change targets. There would also be consequent financial implications of climate change impacts. This impact is uncertain and is only likely to arise under the upper scenario. JNCC's current advice is that the intermediate scenario represents their best view on management requirements.		xxx (under the upper scenario only)
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.

Table 7b. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Location, Age and Gender								[ MTB]
Sector/Impact	Location			Age			Gender
Sector/Impact	Region	Ports	Rural, Urban, Coastal or Island	Children	Working Age	Pensionable Age	Male	Female
None identified.
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.

Table 7c. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Fishing Groups, Income Groups and Social Groups								[ MTB]
Sector/Impact	Fishing Groups		Income Groups			Social Groups
Sector/Impact	Vessel Category <15m >15m	Gear Types/Sector	10% Most Deprived	Middle 80%	10% Most Affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With Disability or Long-term Sick
None identified.
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.

Potential Contribution of the Site to an Ecologically-Coherent Network

Table 8. Overview of Features Proposed for Designation and how these contribute to an Ecologically Coherent Network of MPAs					[ MTB]
Feature Name	Representation	Replication	Linkages	Geographic Range and Variation	Resilience
Sandeels	Provides representation for sandeels in OSPAR Region II. MPA proposal covers preferred site for young sandeels in the Shetland region.	Represents one of three MPA areas for the protection of sandeels in OSPAR Region II.	Replication and representation of areas of importance for sandeels exist in both OSPAR Regions it is present (II and III), based on current knowledge of connectivity between populations.	Areas considered to be of importance to sandeel life history are recorded in OSPAR Regions II and III. MPA proposal covers preferred site for young sandeels in the Shetland region.	Sandeels in Scotland have declined and are considered vulnerable. The MPA area may increase resilience.
JNCC (pers. comm.); SNH and JNCC. (2012). Assessment of the potential adequacy of the Scottish MPA network for MPA search features: summary of the application of the stage 5 selection guidelines. Available online from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/marine/marine-environment/mpanetwork/engagement/270612.

Anticipated Benefits to Ecosystem Services

Table 9. Summary of Ecosystem Services Benefits arising from Designation of the Site as an MPA ^[10]								[ MTB]
Services	Relevance to Site	Baseline Level	Estimated Impacts of Designation			Value Weighting	Scale of Benefits	Confidence
Services	Relevance to Site	Baseline Level	Lower	Intermediate	Upper	Value Weighting	Scale of Benefits	Confidence
Fish for human consumption	Low - Moderate. Habitats make contribution to food webs.	Stocks not at MSY	Nil	Low, uncertain if management measures will have impact		Low. Site fishing grounds have low value, but had former sandeel fishery	Nil - Low	Low
Fish for non-human consumption	Low - Moderate. Habitats make contribution to food webs.	Stocks reduced from potential maximum	Nil	Nil	Nil		Nil - Low	Low
Gas and climate regulation	Nil	Nil	Nil	Nil	Nil	Moderate	Nil	High
Natural hazard protection	Minimal	Low	Nil	Nil	Nil	Low	Nil	High
Regulation of pollution	Minimal	Low	Nil	Nil	Nil	Low	Nil	High
Non-use value of natural environment	Low - protected feature, and contribution of the site to MPA network, have non-use value.	Non-use value of the site may decline, but probably stable	Nil, no change in key characteristics of site	Low - protection of feature of site from uncertain risks		Low, although sandeel is key part of food webs, it is site's only feature	Nil - Moderate	Moderate
Recreation	Low	Minimal	Nil	Minimal		Low	Minimal	Moderate
Research and Education	Minimal	Nil - Low	Nil	Minimal		Low	Minimal	Moderate
Total value of changes in ecosystem services			Nil for lower scenario, Minimal for upper scenarios				Minimal - Low	Moderate

Human Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Mousa to Boddam

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Mousa to Boddam ( MTB)

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