Publication - Impact assessment

Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base for Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report - Appendix E - Marine Site Reports

Published: 19 Aug 2013
Part of:
Marine and fisheries
ISBN:
9781782567585

This is Appendix E for the pMPA Impact and Sustainability Report containing the detailed site by site reports. Published separately due to size.

638 page PDF

20.1 MB

638 page PDF

20.1 MB

Contents
Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base for Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report - Appendix E - Marine Site Reports
Part 1. Inshore Sites

638 page PDF

20.1 MB

Part 1. Inshore Sites

Clyde Sea Sill ( CSS)

Site Area (km 2): 714

Site Summary

Table 1. Summary of Proposed Protected Features, Data Confidence and Conservation Objectives [ CSS]
Proposed protected features
Biodiversity Features
Black guillemot, fronts, circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities.

Geodiversity Features
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - sand banks, sand ribbon fields, sand wave fields.

Site Description

The Clyde Sea Sill MPA proposal stretches across the mouth of the Clyde Sea on the west of Scotland. The proposal runs from the Mull of Kintyre to Corsewall Point on the Rhinns of Galloway.
Summary of confidence in presence, extent and condition of proposed protected features and conservation objectives
Proposed Protected Feature Estimated Area of Feature (by scenario) (km 2) Confidence in
Feature Presence
Confidence in
Feature Extent
Confidence in
Feature Condition
Conservation Objective and Risk
Biodiversity Features
Black guillemot *Lower: 29.05
Intermediate: 29.05
Upper: 29.05
Yes (Seabird 2000 census) Yes Not known Conserve
Fronts Lower: 713.30
Intermediate: 713.30
Upper: 713.30
Yes (Ocean thermal imagery, 2000 - 2009) Yes Not known Conserve
Circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities Lower: 528.31
Intermediate: 528.31
Upper: 528.31
Yes (Marine Scotland surveys, 2012) Yes Not known Conserve
Geodiversity Features
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - sand banks, sand ribbon fields, sand wave fields Sand Bank: 4.99
Sand Ribbon Field: 34.06
Sand Wave Field: 146.08
Yes (Defra research, 2009; SNH & JNCC review, 2012) Yes Not known Conserve
Key: * Estimated area based on best available data
References:
Area of Feature: GeMs
Confidence in feature presence and extent: SNH (2012a)

Summary of Costs and Benefits

Table 2a. Site-Specific Economic Costs on Human Activities arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (present value of total costs over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ CSS]
Human Activity Cost Impact on Activity
Lower Estimate (£Million) Intermediate Estimate (£Million) Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Economic Costs (Discounted)
Commercial Fisheries* 0.000 1.616 3.232
Energy Generation 0.011 0.022 0.022
Military See national costs See national costs See national costs
Telecom Cables 0.007 0.007 0.007
Total Quantified Economic Costs 0.018 1.645 3.261
Non-Quantified Economic Costs
Commercial Fisheries
  • None.
  • Displacement impacts.
  • Displacement impacts.
Energy Generation
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Military
  • See national assessment.
  • See national assessment.
  • See national assessment.
Telecom Cables
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Note: For detailed information on economic cost impacts on activities, see Table 4.
* These estimates (present value of total change in GVA) assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.
Table 2b. Site-Specific Public Sector Costs arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ CSS]
Description Public Sector Costs
Lower Estimate (£Million) Intermediate Estimate (£Million) Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Public Sector Costs (Discounted)
Preparation of Marine Management Schemes None None None
Preparation of Statutory Instruments None 0.041 0.045
Development of voluntary measures National assessment National assessment National assessment
Site monitoring National assessment National assessment National assessment
Compliance and enforcement National assessment National assessment National assessment
Promotion of public understanding National assessment National assessment National assessment
Regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions 0.002 0.003 0.003
Total Quantified Public Sector Costs 0.002 0.044 0.048
Non-Quantified Public Sector Costs
None identified.
Table 2c. Summary of Social Impacts and Distribution of Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ CSS]
Key Areas of Social Impact Description Scale of Expected Impact across Scenarios, Average (mean no. of jobs affected) Distributional Analysis
Location Fishing Groups Predominantly Affected Social Groups Affected
Region Port Rural/ Urban/ Island Gear Types Most Affected Vessels most affected Crofters Ethnic minorities With disability or long term sick
Employment with consequent impacts on: Health, Crime, Environment, and Culture and Heritage Commercial fisheries - Loss of jobs (direct and indirect) Lower: 0 jobs
Intermediate: 3 jobs
Upper: 5 jobs
West
West
N. Ireland
West
Ayr
Campbeltown
Belfast Oban
Impacts concentrated in urban and rural coastal areas Nephrops trawls
Dredges
Lower: N/A
Upper: <15m
No Impact. No breakdown of fisherman employment by ethnic origin. No employment data but unlikely to be employed in fisheries..
If any energy generation developments do not proceed as a result of designation (due to additional costs, project delays, loss of investor confidence), there may be significant social impacts due to job losses (non-quantified).
Note: For detailed information on socio-economic impacts by sector, see Table 7a. For more detailed information on distributional impacts of quantified costs by sector see Tables 7b and 7c.
Table 2d. Site-Specific Benefits arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ CSS]
Benefit Description
Ecosystem Services Benefits (Moderate and High Benefits) Relevance Scale of Benefits
Non-use value of natural environment Low - Moderate. Wrecks and the protected features, and a contribution of the site to MPA network, has non-use values. Low - Moderate
Other Benefits
Tourism Higher biodiversity due to designation, and presence of designations, may attract more tourism activity to local economy.
Contribution to ecologically coherent network See report Section 7.5.
Note: For detailed information on ecosystem services benefits, see Tables 9 and 10. For detailed information on other benefits, see Table 5 (activities that would benefit) and Table 8 (contribution to ecologically-coherent network).

Summary of Overlaps and Interactions between Proposed Designated Features and Human Activities

Table 3. Overlaps and Potential Interactions between Features and Activities under different Scenarios, indicating need for Assessment of Cost Impacts on Human Activities from Designation of the Site as an MPA [ CSS]
Aggregates Aquaculture (Finfish) Aquaculture (Shellfish) Aviation Carbon Capture & Storage Coastal Protection Commercial Fisheries Energy Generation Military Activities Oil & Gas Ports & Harbours Power Interconnectors Recreational Boating Shipping Telecom Cables Tourism Water Sports
Biodiversity Features
Black guillemot - - - - - - L/I/U L/ I/ U L/I/U U U U L/I/U - L/I/U L/I/U L/I/U
Circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities - - - - - - L/ I/ U L/I/U L/I/U L/I/U - L/I/U L/I/U - L/I/U L/I/U L/I/U
Fronts - - - - - - L/I/U L/I/U L/I/U L/I/U L/I/U L/I/U L/I/U - L/I/U L/I/U L/I/U
Geodiversity Features
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - sand banks Not considered to be sensitive at the levels of exposure expected from human activities; thus, not considered in the context of management.
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - sand ribbon fields
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - sand wave fields
Note: L = Lower Scenario; I = Intermediate Scenario; U = Upper Scenario. Normal font indicates that there is an overlap between the activity and proposed designated feature under that scenario, bold indicates that the overlap results in a potential interaction between the activity and proposed designated feature that has resulted in cost impacts under that scenario.
For detail of management measures assessed under each scenario for each activity, and results of the cost estimates, see Table 4.

Human Activity Summaries

Human activities that would be impacted by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 4a. Commercial Fisheries (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) [ CSS]

According to VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics, Nephrops trawls, dredges, pelagic trawls, whitefish trawls and seines (over-15m) and nephrops trawls, pots, dredges and other gear (under-15m vessels) operate within the CSS proposed MPA. The value of catches from the CSS area was £398,000 (over-15m vessels) and £476,000 (under-15m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2007-2011, 2012 prices). Landings from the over-15m vessels were made predominantly into Campbeltown (48%), Portavogie (16%), Ardglass (9%), Girvan (8%) and Troon and Saltcoats (7%). For the over-15m fleet, dredgers operated in particular in the northern part of the proposed MPA across the area of circalittoral sand and coarse sediment, while nephrops trawlers operated mainly in the south-west part of the proposed MPA outside of this area of sediment.

Provisional ScotMap data indicate that the annual average earnings from the CSS proposed MPA was £105,000, with over 40% from pots (velvet crab, brown crab and lobster), over 30% from dredges, and over 25% from Nephrops trawls. The spatial distribution of value from Nephrops trawls indicates that the majority of value is derived from further north than the CSS proposed MPA area in the Firth of Clyde. It is likely that the ICES rectangle estimate for the cost impact on <15m Nephrops trawls is an over-estimate. The coverage for ScotMap interviews in the region was 63.8% (total value of reported landings from the Fisheries Information Network for those vessels included in the ScotMap value analysis expressed as a percentage of the total reported landings for all vessels <15m). Therefore the ScotMap estimate is likely to under-represent the value of fishing by under-15m vessels, and the spatial representation of the value of fishing is less robust than in regions where coverage is higher.

VMS data indicated that there are no foreign vessels fishing within the CSS proposed MPA. Management measures for the scenarios have been developed based on the sensitivity and vulnerability of the features to the pressures caused by different gear types and SNH recommendations.

Unlike most other sectors, the potential cost of designation on commercial fisheries is a loss or displacement of current (and future) output, caused by restrictions on fishing activities. Any decrease in output will, all else being equal, reduce the Gross Value Added ( GVA) generated by the sector and have knock-on effects on the GVA generated by those industries that supply commercial fishing vessels. The costs estimates for this sector have therefore been estimated in terms of GVA.

GVA estimates have been generated by applying fleet segment-specific ' GVA/total income' ratios to the value of landings affected. The GVA ratios have been calculated using data on total income and GVA from the Sea Fish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (published March 2013). Further details on the GVA ratios and the methodology for estimating GVA and employment impacts applied are presented in Appendix C7.

It is important to note that all costs presented below assume that all affected landings are lost, that is, there is no displacement of fishing activity to alternative fishing grounds. In reality, some displacement is likely to occur and hence the cost, GVA and employment impacts presented in this table are likely to overestimate the costs.

Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • No cost impacts expected.
  • Reduce mobile bottom-contact gear pressure (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) by 50% across circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities feature.
  • Closure to mobile bottom-contact gears (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) across circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities feature.
Description of one-off costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of recurring costs
  • None.
  • Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Nephrops trawls (0.010);
  • Dredges (0.063);
  • Other affected gears (0.006).
  • Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Nephrops trawls (0.131);
  • Dredges (0.016);
  • Other affected gears (<0.001).
  • Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Nephrops trawls (0.019);
  • Dredges (0.127);
  • Other affected gears (0.012).
  • Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Nephrops trawls (0.262);
  • Dredges (0.032);
  • Other affected gears (<0.001).
Description of non-quantified costs
  • None.
  • Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.
  • Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033) 0.000 4.523 9.046
Average annual costs 0.000 0.226 0.452
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) 0.000 3.327 6.653
Economic Impacts (£Million)
Total change in GVA (2014-2033) 0.000 2.197 4.394
Average annual change to GVA 0.000 0.110 0.220
Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033) 0.000 1.616 3.232
Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment 0.0 jobs 2.6 jobs 5.2 jobs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Total change in GVA (2014-2033) = The change in direct GVA in the sector for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual change to GVA = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033) = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site discounted to current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment = The average (mean) reduction in direct employment in the sector plus the indirect reduction in employment on the sector's suppliers.
Table 4b. Energy Generation [ CSS]

There are no energy generation activities currently operating within the CSS proposed MPA boundary or corresponding buffer zones. Thus, economic costs and management measures associated with energy generation in this proposed MPA are described in light of known possible future developments.

The Sanda Sound (Oceanflow Energy, 35kW (nominal)) tidal energy project is a ¼ scale testing device in preparation for a larger scale future development. The development, planned for deployment in 2013, overlaps the MPA features 'black guillemot' and 'fronts' under all scenarios ( i.e. lower, intermediate and upper extent), with further extensive overlap observed through consideration of a 5km buffer (also overlapping the MPA feature 'circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities'). Nevertheless, any associated costs of the Sanda Sound tidal development are considered sunk as the application process (agreement reached for lease, test device currently undergoing checks) has the potential to reach a conclusion prior to 2014.

Within the CSS proposed MPA boundary, the 5km buffer zone of the possible Argyll Mull of Kintyre Tidal Array (Nautricity Ltd and Argyll Tidal Ltd, potential 3MW capacity in total) overlaps MPA features 'circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities' and 'fronts' under all scenarios. The MPA feature 'black guillemot' also overlaps the 5km buffer for the potential Argyll Tidal Array development, but only under the upper scenario. An export cable route for the Argyll Mull of Kintyre Tidal Array will potentially pass through the CSS proposed MPA boundary, overlapping all three previously mentioned MPA features under all extent scenarios. Sanda Island SSSI is notified for black guillemots and extends to MLWS. Main breeding colonies within the CSS proposed MPA boundary are already managed through SSSI designation. Given the medium sensitivity of black guillemot to death or injury by collision, barriers to species movement, sub-surface abrasion/penetration and changes in water flow (tidal current), there may be additional management costs incurred.

Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to black guillemot within 1km of proposed activities.
  • Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to black guillemot within 5km of proposed activities.
  • Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to all features within 5km of proposed activities.
Description of one-off costs
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k. Application estimated to be submitted in 2016 (Argyll Mull of Kintyre Tidal Array export cable route).
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k per licence application (up to 2 in total). Application(s) estimated to be submitted in 2016 (Argyll Mull of Kintyre Tidal Array and export cable route).
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k per licence application (up to 2 in total). Application(s) estimated to be submitted in 2016 (Argyll Mull of Kintyre Tidal Array and export cable route).
Description of recurring costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of non-quantified costs
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033) 0.012 0.024 0.024
Average annual costs 0.001 0.001 0.001
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) 0.011 0.022 0.022
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Table 4c. Military [ CSS]

18 military practice areas (Luce Bay (D402A; bombing), Campbeltown (D509), Campbeltown South (X556; minelaying), Mermaid (X5529), Sanda (X5530), Stafnish (X5523), Ailsa (X5524), Ballantrae (X5525) and Corsewall (X5526); five submarine exercise areas and four firing danger areas) overlap with the CSS proposed MPA.

The military practice areas Luce Bay (D402A; bombing), Campbeltown (D509), Campbeltown South (X556; minelaying), Mermaid (X5529), Sanda (X5530), Stafnish (X5523), Ailsa (X5524), Ballantrae (X5525) and Corsewall (X5526) overlap with circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities (all scenarios), fronts (all scenarios) and Black Guillemot (upper scenario only). Sanda (X5530) and Stafnish (X5523) also overlap with Black Guillemot under all scenarios.

The five submarine exercise areas and four firing danger areas overlap with the features of the CSS proposed MPA to varying degrees under the different extent scenarios.

The features and associated habitats which overlap with military activities have not been described as vulnerable to MOD activities in this proposed MPA. It is assumed that management relating to MOD activity will be coordinated through the MOD's Maritime Environmental Sustainability Appraisal Tool ( MESAT) which the MOD uses to assist in meeting its environmental obligations. This process will include operational guidance to reduce significant impacts of military activities on MPAs. It is assumed that the MoD will incur additional costs in adjusting MESAT and other MoD environmental assessment tools in order to consider whether its activities will impact on the conservation objectives of MPAs and also incur additional costs in adjusting electronic charts to consider MPAs. However, these costs will be incurred at national level and hence no site-specific cost assessments have been made.

Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • See National Assessment.
  • See National Assessment.
  • See National Assessment.
Description of one-off costs
Description of recurring costs
Description of non-quantified costs
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033) See national costs See national costs See national costs
Average annual costs See national costs See national costs See national costs
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) See national costs See national costs See national costs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Table 4d. Telecom Cables [ CSS]
Three telecom cables overlap with the CSS proposed MPA boundary; Lanis 3 for a distance of 19.5km, Scotland-N.Ireland 2 for a distance of 19.4km and Sirius North for a distance of 18.6km. All three telecom cables overlap with circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities (all scenarios), fronts (all scenarios) and Black Guillemot (upper scenario only). The possible cost associated with replacement of existing telecom cables at the end of their working life is provided.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • Where cables need replacing, additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to features within the proposed development footprint.
  • Where cables need replacing, additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to features within the proposed development footprint.
  • Where cables need replacing, additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to features within the proposed development footprint; and
  • Seasonal restrictions on laying cables due to Black Guillemot (assumed developer could work around these at no additional cost).
Description of one-off costs
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £10k assumed to be in 2024 (assume only one of existing telecom cables will need replacing over assessment period).
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £10k assumed to be in 2024 (assume only one of existing telecom cables will need replacing over assessment period).
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £10k assumed to be in 2024 (assume only one of existing telecom cables will need replacing over assessment period).
Description of recurring costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of non-quantified costs
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment;
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment;
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment;
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033) 0.010 0.010 0.010
Average annual costs 0.001 0.001 0.001
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) 0.007 0.007 0.007
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Human activities that would benefit from designation of the site as an MPA

Table 5. Human Activities that would Benefit from Designation of the Site as an MPA [ CSS]
Activity Description Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Tourism Coastal areas are well represented when considering the locations of various tourist related sites within Scotland with a range of site types present in all regions including the West. Where significant impacts to recreational boating or water sports have been identified for the site, there could also be consequential impacts on tourism. Tourism may benefit from the designation of the MPA as an added attraction to the destination. In addition, there may also be indirect benefits to tourism as a result of benefits to some water sports activities, for example, recreational angling and diving. The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate. The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Sea Angling Sea angling is carried out along most of the Scottish coastline within 6nm ( SSACN), CSS proposed MPA covers two section of coastline and these areas out to 6nm overlap with recreational sea angling. All proposed MPA features and their corresponding extents overlap with the sea angling areas however no management restrictions upon this activity are required. Sea anglers could benefit from any on-site positive effects resulting from the MPA designation and corresponding management restrictions on sector activities including an increase in the size and diversity of species which in turn is expected to increase the attraction of a site for anglers (Fletcher et al. 2012). The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate. The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Scuba diving There are seven dive sites located within CSS proposed MPA, one dive site is an unnamed submarine wreck and six are wreck dive sites (Hereford express, Agba, Empire Adventure, Windsor Castle, Byron Darnton and Siant Conan). All seven dive sites overlap with features in the lower, intermediate and upper scenarios. No management restrictions upon this activity are required. The added protection offered by an MPA designation and management measures placed upon sector activities may increase the aesthetic attraction of the dive sites through an improved marine ecosystem and a reduction in degradation to the wreck sites. The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate. The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.

Human activities that are present but which would be unaffected by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 6. Human Activities that are Present but which would be Unaffected by Designation of the Site as an MPA [ CSS]
Activity Description
Oil and Gas There is one pipeline within the CSS proposed MPA boundary that overlaps with features proposed for designation; black guillemot, circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities and fronts. The presence of the existing pipeline is not expected to require additional management measures. The designation of the MPA proposal would not lead to additional management for black guillemot above that of the Sanda Island SSSI.
Recreational Boating There are no recreational boating anchorages located within the CSS proposed MPA that overlap with features proposed for designation, although three Crown Estate mooring points are present that overlap with feature extents for black guillemot and fronts under all scenarios. Neither feature is considered sensitive to pressures associated with anchoring, however; therefore no cost impacts are expected. Seven cruising routes intersect the CSS proposed MPA; three with low traffic and four with medium traffic. It is not considered that cruising routes will incur any management or assessment costs.
Ports and Harbours There is one port/harbour (Southend) within the CSS proposed MPA boundary. Southend overlaps the MPA feature fronts under all scenarios; however, management costs are not expected to be incurred.
Power Interconnectors Two existing power interconnectors and one consented power interconnector (Western HVDC Link) overlap with the CSS proposed MPA. Both existing power interconnectors and the one consented power interconnector overlap with circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities (all scenarios), fronts (all scenarios) and Black Guillemot (upper scenario). No cost impacts are foreseen, as it is assumed that there will be no review of the existing consents.
Water Sports - Windsurfing There is one popular windsurfing location (Southend) within the CSS proposed MPA. Water sports activities including windsurfing are assessed as not requiring any additional management measures. It is also considered that no additional benefit to windsurfing from management measures applied to other activities will occur.

Social and Distributional Analysis of Impacts from Designation of the Site as an MPA

Table 7a. Social Impacts Associated with Quantified and Non-Quantified Economic Costs [ CSS]
Sector Potential Economic Impacts Economic Costs and GVA ( PV) Area of Social Impact Affected Mitigation Significance of Social impact
Commercial Fisheries Loss of traditional fishing grounds with consequent loss in landings, value of landings and hence GVA Annual Average Loss in Value of Landings*:
Lower: £0.00m
Intermediate: £0.23m
Upper: £0.45m

Annual Average Loss in GVA (direct and indirect)*:
Lower: £0.00m
Intermediate: £0.11m
Upper: £0.22m
Culture and heritage - impact on traditions from loss of fishing grounds. Health: xx (for individuals affected who do not find alternative employment)
If the loss in GVA significant enough, risk of job losses (direct and indirect) Job Losses*:
Lower: 0.0 jobs
Intermediate: 2.6 jobs
Upper: 5.2 jobs
A reduction in employment can generate a wide range of social impacts which, in turn, can generate a range of short and long term costs for wider society and the public purse:
  • Healt h (increase in illness, mental stress, loss of self esteem
and risk of depression);
  • Increase in crime; and
  • Reduction in f u ture emp lo y me n t prospects/future earnings.
Support to retrain those affected and for the promotion of new small businesses in fisheries dependent areas.
Displacement Effects Not Quantified Quantified impact on jobs assume worst case scenario ( i.e. no redistribution of effort). In reality displacement effects likely to occur with socio-economic consequences:
  • Empl o y m e nt - reduced employment due to changes in costs and earnings profile of vessels ( e.g. increased fuel costs, gear development and adaption costs, additional quota costs);
  • Conflict/Loss of social cohesion - diminishing fishing grounds may increase conflict with other vessels/gear types, increase social tensions within fishing communities and lead to a loss of social cohesion among fleets. Could also lead to increased operating costs as a result of lost or damaged gear. Equally, gear conflict could reduce where gears are restricted/prohibited;
  • Healt h - increased risks to the safety of fishers and vessels and increased stress due to moving to lesser known areas;
  • E n v ironmental - increased impact in targeting new areas, longer streaming times and increased fuel consumption; and
  • Culture and heritage - change in traditional fishing patterns/ activities.
xx
Energy Generation Additional operational costs Quantified Cost Impact (2014-2033): £0.011 - 0.022m Future employment opportunities - if increased operational costs associated with management measures render projects unviable or restrict project size there will be a negative impact on economic activity and job creation in this sector. 0

Costs associated with delays during the consenting process

Loss of investor confidence (developments do not proceed)

Not Quantified

Future employment opportunities - if the delays deter investments there will be a negative impact on economic activity and future job creation in this sector.

Environment - possible negative impact in relation to climate change and the ability of the Scottish Government to meet its 2020 renewables targets, decarbonisation targets and climate change targets. There would also be consequent financial implications of climate change impacts.

This impact is uncertain and is only likely to arise under the upper scenario. JNCC's current advice is that the intermediate scenario represents their best view on management requirements.

xxx (under the upper scenario only)
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
* These estimates assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.
Table 7b. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Location, Age and Gender [ CSS]
Sector/Impact Location Age Gender
Region Ports* Rural, Urban, Coastal or Island Children Working Age Pensionable Age Male Female

Commercial Fisheries

Reduction in landed value, GVA and employment

xx

West (and Belfast)

xx

Largest employment impacts in:

Ayr (41%), Campbeltown (24%), Belfast (16%), Oban (14%)

xx

Coastal

Rural and Urban

xxx

Potentially significant negative effect if parent loses job/becomes unemployed.

xxx

Potentially significant negative effect if individuals lose job/become unemployed.

xx

Potential negative effect if retirees own affected vessels or live in households affected by unemployment.

xxx

0-5 job losses

Potentially significant negative effect on individuals that lose job/become unemployed.

xxx

Potentially significant negative effect if member of household loses job/ becomes unemployed.

Fish Processors

Reduction in local landings at landing ports

x

West

x

Campbeltown Troon and Saltcoates Girven

x

Coastal

Rural and Urban

0 0 0 0 0
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
* Based on value of landings by home port affected under intermediate scenario.
Table 7c. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Fishing Groups, Income Groups and Social Groups [ CSS]
Sector/Impact Fishing Groups Income Groups Social Groups
Vessel Category <15m >15m* Gear Types/Sector* 10% Most Deprived Middle 80% 10% Most Affluent Crofters Ethnic minorities With Disability or Long-term Sick

Commercial Fisheries

Reduction in landed value, GVA and employment

Lower: N/A
Upper: <15m
Nephrops trawls
Dredges
xx xx

x

Information only available on average incomes not the distribution of income. Therefore, not clear whether this group will be affected.

0 No breakdown of fisherman employment by ethnic origin.

0

No employment data but unlikely to be employed in fisheries.

Fish Processors

Reduction in local landings at landing ports

Shellfish: xxx
Demersal: xx
Pelagic: 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
* Based on costs to gear types/sectors and vessel categories affected under the intermediate scenario.

Potential Contribution of the Site to an Ecologically-Coherent Network

Table 8. Overview of Features Proposed for Designation and how these contribute to an Ecologically Coherent Network of MPAs [ CSS]
Feature Name Representation Replication Linkages Geographic Range
and Variation
Resilience
Black guillemot Provides representation of the southern limit for black guillemot in OSPAR Region III. Represents one of six potential MPA areas that will protect black guillemot in Scotland's seas. Will be reviewed in light of Northern Ireland proposals to determine connectivity with wider MPA network. Represents the southern limit of the species' range in the UK and provides a link with the population in Northern Ireland. Not listed as threatened and/or declining on OSPAR list, although there is evidence to suggest declines in Scottish seas. MPA may increase resilience.
Fronts Provides representation for a topographic and density-driven front in OSPAR Region III. Represents one of three potential MPA areas in OSPAR Regions II and III covering shelf seas. Replication is therefore provided in the network. Not currently understood for fronts. Each potential MPA is considered to cover functionally significant examples, reflecting different shelf fronts in a range of settings. Not considered to be threatened and/or declining. No need to represent a greater proportion within MPA network.
Circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities Information not available.
JNCC (pers. comm.); SNH and JNCC. (2012). Assessment of the potential adequacy of the Scottish MPA network for MPA search features: summary of the application of the stage 5 selection guidelines.
Available online from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/marine/marine-environment/mpanetwork/engagement/270612.

Anticipated Benefits to Ecosystem Services

Table 9. Summary of Ecosystem Services Benefits arising from Designation of the Site as an MPA [1] [ CSS]
Services Relevance
to Site
Baseline Level Estimated Impacts of Designation Value Weighting Scale of Benefits Confidence
Lower Intermediate Upper
Fish for human consumption Moderate. Habitats make contribution to food webs. Stocks not at MSY Nil Low. Some recovery of benthic species possible. High, site fishing grounds are valuable Nil - Low Moderate
Fish for non-human consumption Stocks reduced from potential maximum Nil
Gas and climate regulation Nil - Low Nil - Low Nil Nil Minimal Moderate Nil High
Natural hazard protection Low Low Nil, would not affect stability of coastline Moderate, Clyde is valuable for marine activities Nil High
Regulation of pollution Low Low Nil Minimal - Low, maintained by protecting seabed features Low - Moderate, for recreational use of waters Nil - Low High
Non-use value of natural environment Low - Moderate. Wrecks and protected features, and contribution of the site to MPA network, have non-use value. Non-use value of the site may decline Nil, no change in key characteristics of site Low - protection of key characteristics of site from minor decline Moderate - protection of key characteristics of site from decline, and/or allowing some recovery of values Moderate Low - Moderate Low
Recreation Moderate 7 active dive sites, Sea angling Nil Low - slightly higher biodiversity encountered by divers Moderate Low Moderate
Research and Education Moderate Biological and geological features have research value but there are substitutes Nil, no change in key characteristics of site Low - protection of key characteristics of site from decline, improving future research opportunities Low Nil - Low Low
Total value of changes in ecosystem services Low for lower scenario, moderate for upper scenarios Low - Moderate Low

Human Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Clyde Sea Sill

Fishing Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Clyde Sea Sill


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