Coronavirus (COVID-19) Strategic Framework update February 2022: business and regulatory impact assessment

Summary & Recommendation

Option 1: Allow all regulations to expire in February 2022

Benefits

Businesses able to operate free of restrictions.

Costs

No cost to businesses from restrictions, though if the outlook should change, businesses and consumers could be left without reassurance and appropriate guidance in place, and could exhibit increasingly risk averse behaviours.

Option 2: Continue with current Strategic Framework, strategic intent and restrictions

Benefits

The transmission risk on people mixing indoors with no distancing is inherently high despite vaccination given the increased transmissibility of Omicron. Current measures – including vaccine certifications for a narrow range of higher risk settings – seek to reduce close contact among unvaccinated people.

Costs

This option is not likely to have any immediate financial implications beyond those associated with continuation of baseline mitigation measures and vaccine certification. These measures, while comparatively mild compared to those in place at earlier stages of the pandemic, impact those sectors which have to date been most negatively affected, such as Accommodation & Food and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.

Option 3: Create new strategic intent and update Strategic Framework [Recommended Option]

Benefits

By updating our strategic framework regularly to reflect the state of the epidemic, we are aiming to provide as much future clarity as possible. While it is impossible to predict the future with this virus, publishing our updated strategic direction continues to ensure that we are transparent in our thinking, and that measures remain necessary and proportionate to minimise impact on businesses and individuals wherever possible. This option maximises flexibility in decision making, and maximises clarity for those affected by any change in measures or recommendations.

Costs

There is no implicit impact on businesses of establishing a new Framework. However, depending on the level of Assessed Threat and subsequent measures to address that threat, there could be a range of impacts. Since March 2020 a variety of measures have been taken to combat the pandemic, from the severe (such as enforced business closure, severe social distancing measures) to the comparatively mild (such as guidance on face coverings). The return of any restrictions previously imposed would have an impact on businesses, to a greater or lesser degree of magnitude depending on the required measures.