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Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 29 April 2022

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

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Regional Covid-19 Prevalence

The ONS have created sub-regions across the UK for the purposes of providing Covid-19 positivity estimates for the residential populations on a lower level than the four nations. In Scotland, these sub-regions are comprised of Health Boards[71]. Please note, the reference week for sub-regional positivity estimates is 17 to 23 April 2022 for England and Northern Ireland, and 18 to 23 April for Scotland and Wales.

The sub-region with the highest modelled estimate for the percentage of people testing positive was CIS Region 127 (NHS Lanarkshire) at 4.48% (95% credible interval: 3.83% to 5.26%). This region includes the local authorities North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire. The sub-region with the lowest modelled estimate was CIS Region 126 (NHS Lothian), at 4.01% (95% credible interval: 3.41% to 4.64%). This region includes the local authorities City of Edinburgh, East Lothian, Midlothian and West Lothian (see Figure 12)[72] [73]. Figure 12 is also available as a dynamic map.

Figure 12: Modelled estimates of the percentage of the private residential population within each CIS sub-region who would have tested positive for COVID-19 in the week 17 to 23 April 2022 for England and Northern Ireland, and 18 to 23 April for Scotland and Wales [74].

A colour coded map of the UK shows the modelled estimates of the percentage of the private residential population testing positive for COVID-19, by COVID-19 Infection Survey sub-regions. In Scotland, these sub-regions are comprised of Health Boards. The regions are: 123 - NHS Grampian, NHS Highland, NHS Orkney, NHS Shetland and NHS Western Isles, 124 - NHS Fife, NHS Forth Valley and NHS Tayside, 125 - NHS Greater Glasgow & Clyde, 126 - NHS Lothian, 127 - NHS Lanarkshire, 128 - NHS Ayrshire & Arran, NHS Borders and NHS Dumfries & Galloway.

In the week leading up to 24 April 2022, Na h-Eileanan Siar had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 909 cases per 100,000 population. Dundee City had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 321 cases per 100,000. The total combined LFD and PCR weekly case rates by specimen date per 100,000 had increased in 1 local authority in the week leading up to 24 April 2022 compared with the weekly case rate leading up to 17 April 2022, while 31 local authorities saw a decrease in the same period (Figure 13)[75].

Figure 13: Weekly total LFD or PCR case rates (including reinfections) per 100,000 people in Local Authorities across Scotland on 24 April 2022 by specimen date [76].

one colour coded map showing positive LFD and PCR weekly cases per 100,000 people by specimen date in each local authority in Scotland on 24 April 2022. The map ranges from grey for under 300 weekly cases per 100,000, through very light blue for 300-500, blue for 500-700, darker blue for 700-900, and very dark blue for over 900 weekly cases per 100,000 people.

Contact

Email: sgcentralanalysisdivision@gov.scot

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