Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 29 April 2022

Summary

The positivity estimate from the Covid-19 Infection Survey (CIS) for Scotland continued to decrease in the most recent week to 23 April. Over the past two weeks to 26 April there has been an overall nationwide decline in wastewater Covid-19 levels; however, the most recent week saw a slight increase. Meanwhile, the weekly case rate (including reinfections) in Scotland has continued to decrease in the most recent week to 24 April.

According to the CIS, the estimated percentage of people testing positive has decreased among older adults. However, the trend was uncertain in young adults and children of nursery/primary and secondary school ages. Meanwhile, case rates have continued to decrease in all age groups compared to the previous week.

Covid-19 related daily hospital occupancy has continued to decrease in the most recent week to 26 April, after reaching the highest levels seen throughout the pandemic on 2 April. Combined ICU occupancy has increased slightly in the same week compared to the week prior, however it has fluctuated from day to day. Similarly, weekly numbers of Covid-19 admissions continued to decrease in the week to 9 April, after reaching the highest levels seen throughout the pandemic in the week to 18 March. There were 121 deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate in the latest week, a slight decrease from the week before.

Key Points

• The UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) consensus estimate for R in Scotland as at 12 April is between 0.8 and 1.0. The lower and upper limits of the R value have both remained unchanged since the previous publication .
• As at 12 April, the UKHSA's consensus view was that the incidence of new daily infections in Scotland was between 191 and 569 per 100,000 people.
• The latest estimated growth rate for Scotland as at 12 April was between -5% and -1%. The upper and lower growth limits have both decreased since the previous publication.
• As determined through the latest weekly ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey (CIS), in Scotland, the percentage of people living in private residential households testing positive for Covid-19 continued to decrease in the week ending 23 April 2022. In the latest week, the estimated percentage of people testing positive was 4.14% (95% credible interval: 3.68% to 4.63%)^[2], equating to around 1 in 25 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 25 to 1 in 20).
• Nationwide, wastewater Covid-19 levels have overall reduced in the last two weeks. The week ending 26 April saw levels of around 130 million gene copies per person per day (Mgc/p/d), a slight rise compared to 116 Mgc/p/d the previous week (week ending 19 April), but lower than 220 Mgc/p/d the week before (week ending 12 April).
• By specimen date, the seven-day combined PCR and LFD case rate (including reinfections) decreased by 28% in Scotland in the week leading up to 24 April (400 cases per 100,000) compared to one week previously (557 cases per 100,000 on 17 April). This follows a period of sharply increasing case rates from late February to mid-March.
• The week leading up to 24 April saw decreasing case rates in all age groups compared to the week ending 17 April. In the most recent week, the decrease ranged from 20% for those aged 19 or younger, to 34% for those aged 60 to 69.
• In the week to 22 April, there were 170 reported cases among care home residents, which is a decrease of 41% from the previous week ending 15 April (287 cases).
• The proportion of reinfections among total weekly cases has increased in the most recent week to 24 April to 12.5% of all cases. This is the highest level of reinfections seen in the pandemic.
• In the week to and including 26 April, Covid-19 hospital occupancy continued to decrease by 16% compared to the previous week ending 19 April, after the highest hospital occupancy number throughout the pandemic was reported on 2 April 2022 (2,406). Combined ICU occupancy (including short and long stay) has slightly increased to 28 patients on 26 April, an increase of 2 patients or 8% compared to a week previously on 19 April. However, ICU occupancy has been fluctuating day to day.
• Covid-19 admissions to hospital in the week to 9 April decreased by 16% compared to the previous week ending 2 April, after reaching the highest levels seen throughout the pandemic on 18 March 2022 (1,657 patients). Covid-19 ICU admissions have decreased by 40% in the week to 12 April compared to the previous week ending 5 April. There are a large number of daily revisions to admissions data for the latest two weeks. Because of this, the week-on-week comparisons are lagged by two weeks.
• The overall number of Covid-19 deaths has decreased by 6%, or 8 deaths, to a total of 121 deaths in the week leading up to 24 April, compared to 129 in the week leading up to 17 April.
• In the week ending 24 April, the total number of deaths registered in Scotland was 1,242. This was 16% above the five-year average for this week.
• The sub-region with the highest modelled estimate for the percentage of people testing positive was CIS Region 127 (NHS Lanarkshire) at 4.48% (95% credible interval: 3.83% to 5.26). The sub-region with the lowest modelled estimate was CIS Region 126 (NHS Lothian), at 4.01% (95% credible interval: 3.41% to 4.64%).
• In the week leading up to 24 April 2022, Na h-Eileanan Siar had the highest combined PCR and LFD weekly case rate by specimen date, reporting 909 cases per 100,000 population. Dundee City had the lowest weekly combined LFD and PCR case rate in the same time period, reporting 321 cases per 100,000.

Method

This report brings together a wide range of publicly available figures from a range of data sources. These include publications by Scottish Government, Public Heath Scotland, National Records of Scotland and Office for National Statistics along with scientific publications and SAGE and UKHSA summaries where appropriate to summarise the state of the epidemic in Scotland in a given week. We also provide information on public attitudes to the virus from weekly YouGov polling surveys.