Understanding the drivers of changes in demand for disability benefits in Scotland since 2010: A quick scoping review

8. Annex 1 – Review Protocol

Review title: Understanding the drivers of changes in demand for disability benefits in Scotland from 2010 to the present – A Quick Scoping Review

Background for the work: In recent years, there has been a large increase in disability benefit applications and awards in Scotland and the UK, the underlying causes of which are still not well understood. The aim of this Scoping Review is to gain a better understanding of the different drivers of demand for disability benefits in Scotland (PIP and ADP), since 2010. It is unclear what kind of information is available in the literature about what has led to this increase in demand for disability benefits in Scotland for adults and children.

For this reason, a Quick Scoping Review (QSR)[1] – which can be applied to more open-ended questions (such as ‘what do we know about x or y?’) was considered appropriate. A QSR will systematically map the research done in this area and provide a general understanding of the volume and characteristics of the evidence base, as well as identify any existing gaps in knowledge. It allows questions to be answered by maximising use of the existing evidence base, whilst also providing a clear picture of the adequacy of that evidence.

QSRs are designed to be transparent and to minimise bias and are used to understand the impact either of a ‘pressure’ or a policy intervention, thereby informing general policy direction.[1]

Primary Question: The main question to be addressed by the review

• What are the drivers of changes in the overall number and profile of people applying for and receiving disability benefits over the last 15 years in Scotland and the UK?

What are the possible drivers (C-concept) of changes in the overall number and profile of people (P- disabled adults and children) applying for and receiving disability benefits (C-concept) over the last 15 years in Scotland and the UK (C-context)?

Population: All disabled adults of working-age and disabled children. This includes all people entitled to disability benefits for a range of conditions related to mental and physical health.

Concept: Disability Benefits and what is driving increases in take up of these benefits. Relevant benefits include:

(i) Devolved disability benefits - Adult Disability Payment (ADP) and Child Disability Payment (CDP), and; (ii) Reserved disability benefits - Personal Independence Payment (PIP), Disability Living Allowance Child (DLA Child), reserved benefits with existing qualifying relationships with devolved benefits (e.g. Universal Credit), or reserved benefits/assessments where there are likely to be overlapping client groups with, or potential impacts on, demand for devolved benefits where awards are made (e.g. UC Work Capability Assessment / Limited Capability for Work Assessments).

Context: UK. Also interested in Europe for comparisons but the main focus is Scotland and the UK. The Social Security system.

Secondary questions (Additional questions to be addressed by the review that contribute to building up the evidence surrounding the primary question):

• How has demand for disability benefits in Scotland and the UK changed over the last 15 years?
• Who is in receipt of disability benefits (adults and children) and how has the profile of people applying for, and receiving disability benefits changed over the last 15 years in Scotland and the UK?

Scope of the work: clear limits of the question to be addressed by the review

• Geographical reference - Scotland, England, Wales, NI, EU - The primary focus of this work will be on Scotland, however this review will also look at wider cross UK trends and seek to ground developments in Scotland within the broader UK and European context.
• Climatic conditions - N/A
• Language restrictions - Only publications in English
• Date restrictions - Only evidence from after 2010 - The rationale for selecting this timeframe is: (i) the benefits that are of most interest to us were only introduced after 2010. The biggest set of welfare reforms (transition to PIP, introduction of UC) over the last 15 years were initiated at this time, (ii) setting the timeframe from 2010 avoids the initial knock-on effects of the 2008 financial crisis.
• Population restrictions - Only evidence about disabled people
• Outcome restrictions – N/A
• Other restrictions – N/A

Potential Keywords: words or phrases that could be developed into search strings and used in the systematic search for evidence

• Keywords related to the population - Disabled people, people with disabilities, physical disabilities, mental health, mental ill health, health conditions, illness, long-standing illness, impairments, incapacity, diagnosis, diagnoses, primary condition, secondary condition.
• Keywords related to the intervention - Disability benefits, social security, welfare, benefits, devolved disability benefits, incapacity benefits, claim, Social Security Scotland, Department for Work and Pensions, Adult Disability Payment (ADP), Child Disability Payment (CDP), drivers of demand, growth/rise/increase in disability benefit recipients, population health, health inequality, Reserved disability benefits, Personal Independence Payment (PIP), Disability Living Allowance Child (DLA Child), Employment Support Allowance (ESA), Universal Credit Work Capability Assessment, Universal Credit Limited Capability for Work Assessments, onflows, off flows, the benefits system.
• Keywords related to the comparator – N/A
• Keywords related to the outcome – N/A
• Other relevant keywords - Increased take up, increased uptake, rise in disability claimants, growth in number of disability recipients.

Potential Search locations: All types of publications including primary studies, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, letters to the editor, guidelines, websites, policy documents, published articles, reports by think tanks, articles in conference proceedings, editorials, websites, and chapters in textbooks are relevant.

• Locations for peer reviewed evidence - Google Scholar, Web of Science, Scopus, Idox, KandE Knowledge Network, Policy Commons, ProQuest, National Library of Scotland Catalogue.
• Locations for grey literature - Resolution Foundation, IPPR, Fraser of Allander Institute, Jospeh Rowntree Foundation, House of Commons Library, House of Lords Library, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Institute for Government, Google Custom Search, Google Advanced Search.
• Locations for unpublished data – N/A
• Will other reviews and secondary reviews be considered? – Yes
• Will theoretical or conceptual studies be considered? - Yes

Subsequent milestones:

• Library search - Completed 4^th June 2025
• Pilot screening - Completed 6^th June. 3 people screened ~140 papers, 10% of responses checked and discussed, screening protocol updated and finalised.