Understanding the drivers of changes in demand for disability benefits in Scotland since 2010: A quick scoping review

Footnotes

1 See terminology section

2 Such as musculoskeletal, heart/blood, respiratory, visual/hearing, and other conditions.

3 More detail on the social and medical model of disability can be found here: Scottish Government (2025) Disability Equality Plan

4 Social Security Scotland Statistics: Child Disability Payment: statistics to 30 September 2025

5 ‘Working-age’ benefit refers to the age at which a person starts to receive the benefit, and they continue to receive it for as long as they remain entitled, regardless of age.

6 Grey literature has been described as ‘information produced on all levels of government, academia, business and industry in electronic and print formats not controlled by commercial publishing i.e. where publishing is not the primary activity of the producing body.’ Third International Conference on Grey Literature in 1997 (ICGL Luxembourg definition, 1997 - Expanded in New York, 2004).

7 ‘Health-related benefits’ refers to disability and incapacity benefits

8 See section 5.10

9 In these two reports, the Labour Force Survey and Family Resources Survey captured the growing disability benefit caseload evidenced by administrative data, whereas the Health Survey for England, UK Household Longitudinal Survey and the English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing did not. Moreover, surveys that did capture the rise in disability benefits caseloads also showed a rise in the number of people reporting long-term health problems.

10 Administrative data only records the main condition, which is self-reported by the applicant. Applicants may also have other conditions.

11 The disability condition data in Scotland, England and Wales is recorded using codes which were developed based on International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10

12 There are many more publications which examine the introduction of PIP. However, only these reports met the eligibility criteria for inclusion in this quick scoping review.

13 Encompassing factors like the cost of living which the report stated has played a key role in driving the number of applications for ADP. This is discussed more in Section 5.8

14 A 2025 report by Audit Scotland - not included in this review - highlighted that the latest ADP statistics showed a lower rate of ADP awards being ended or decreased at review than previously forecast, and that most reviews result in no change to the award, which has contributed to fewer people coming off ADP compared to equivalent ‘off-flow’ rates for PIP.

15 The proportion of ADP applications meeting the eligibility requirements to access the payment

16 Recent analysis by the Resolution Foundation [not included in this review] shows in 2025 the award rate for new ADP applications remains lower than new claims for PIP in England and Wales.

17 In July 2022 the number of people newly awarded PIP was more than double what it had been in July 2021, around 30,000.

18 This analysis did note significant findings on paper-based assessments, with 86% of these resulting in an award. However, there was not a comparable decision to move to paper-based assessments at a point in time, and there are a number of factors which may explain why paper-based assessments are more likely to result in a PIP award.

19 PIP reviews resulting in an individual losing their award

20 Important context is that UK health-related benefit spending was lower than that in many comparable countries before the pandemic.

21 all working-age disability benefit recipients, rather than new claimants

22 In this report, ‘pre-pandemic’ refers to claimants who began their claims between 2014 Q3 and 2020 Q1, and ‘post-pandemic’ refers to claimants who began their claims between 2020 Q2 and 2023 Q4

23 It distinguished between formal advisors, which include people working for organisations that specialise in benefits advice, who draw on training and experience when offering advice, as well as other professions (social workers, occupational therapists, GPs etc.) who can provide support as part of their work and informal advisors, who are friends, family members, acquaintances etc.

24 The number of new PIP claims that have been officially recorded by the DWP.

25 The number of PIP claims that have been fully processed and a decision made.

26 HCPs in this study included General Practitioners, Nurses, and Occupational Therapists

27 It is worth noting that more recent evidence, not included in this review, shows that stigma towards people with mental health problems worsened significantly between 2023 and 2024 Public attitudes to mental health are going backwards, warns Mind | King's College London

28 Both Resolution Foundation reports reviewed here examine the time period 2013-2023

29 A shift-share analysis, used in regional science, political economy, and urban studies, determines what portions of regional economic growth or decline can be attributed to national, economic industry, and regional factors.

30 Many people remain in receipt of working-age disability benefits when they are over the SPA. Since 2018 the upper age limit for applying for PIP/ADP has risen with the SPA. However, clients already receiving PIP/ADP before SPA remain on these when they reach SPA (including further award reviews), as AA and PADP do not include a mobility component. Current expenditure forecasts by the SFC show that around 20% of the total ADP caseload forecast spending is for those aged 65 and over (Adult Disability Payment Official Statistics)

31 The most recent source examines the period up to 2023