Understanding the drivers of changes in demand for disability benefits in Scotland since 2010: A quick scoping review

This quick scoping review identifies and summarises research that examines the different drivers of demand for disability benefits in Scotland and the UK since 2010.


10. References

1 IFS (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

2 Department for Work and Pensions. (2025). Work aspirations and support needs of health and disability customers: Interim findings (Ad hoc research report no. 112).

3 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies

4 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

5 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Chapter 5, Social Security, Supplementary Figures (May 2025) in Independent Review of Adult Disability Payment: Final Report (2025)

6 Congreve, Emma (2024) Disability payments to adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales. Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

7 Disability Living Allowance (DLA) for children: Overview - GOV.UK

8 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

9 E, Latimer and M, Oulton and T, Waters. (2025). The government’s proposed reforms to health-related benefits: incomes, insurance and incentives. London: Institute for Fiscal Studies.

10 House of Commons Library (2025) Changes to benefits for disabled people

11 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

12 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

13 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

14 Social Security Scotland (2024) Summary statistics for Personal Independence Payment at July 2024

15 Scottish Government (2017) Responsibility for benefits: overview

16 Scottish Parliament Information Centre. (2025). SPICe Issues No 2, 2025. Scottish Parliament, Social Justice and Social Security Committee, Social Security Scotland

17 Scottish Government (2017) Social security principles and a rights based approach

18 Social Security Scotland (2019) Our Charter

19 Harris, E. (Chair). (2025, July 31) Independent Review of Adult Disability Payment: Final Report

20 House of Commons Library (2025) UK disability statistics: Prevalence and life experiences

21 House of Commons Library (2025) UK disability statistics: Prevalence and life experiences

22 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

23 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

24 J, Cribb and H, Karjalainen and T, Waters (2022). Living standards of working-age disability benefits recipients in the UK. London: Institute for Fiscal Studies.

25 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

26 L. Try (2025) Money, money, money: The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years. Resolution Foundation

27 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies

28 SPICe Spotlight (2025) Disability Benefit Reform – implications for Scotland

29 Social Security Scotland unpublished analysis

30 Social Security Scotland (2025) Adult Disability Payment statistics to 30 April 2025

31 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

32 IFS (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

33 IFS (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

34 Pham M. T., Rajić A., Greig J. D., Sargeant J. M., Papadopoulos A. and McEwen S. A. (2014) A scoping review of scoping reviews: advancing the approach and enhancing the consistency, Research Synthesis Methods

35 Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) Checklist

36 JBI Scoping Reviews - Resources

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38 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025). The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims

39 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions

40 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

41 Joyce, R., Ray-Chaudhuri, S. and Waters, T. (2022) The number of new disability benefit claimants has doubled in a year, IFS Report R233.

42 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

43 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

44 Murphy, L. (2024) Growing Pressures: Exploring trends in children's disability benefits, Resolution Foundation

45 L. Murphy (2025) Delivering the undeliverable. Resolution Foundation

46 Correspondence, Chair of the Economic Affairs Committee, to the Rt. Hon. Liz Kendall MP, 20 January 2025

47 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025). The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims

48 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

49 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025). The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims

50 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions

51 National Records of Scotland (2024) Life Expectancy in Scotland 2021-2023

52 Correspondence, Chair of the Economic Affairs Committee, to the Rt. Hon. Liz Kendall MP, 20 January 2025

53 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

54 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025). The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims

55 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022). The number of new disability claimants has doubled in a year

56 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022). The number of new disability claimants has doubled in a year

57 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025). The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims

58 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025). The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims

59 Murphy, L. (2025) Delivering the undeliverable. Resolution Foundation

60 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022). The number of new disability claimants has doubled in a year

61 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024). Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits

62 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022). Living standards of working-age disability benefits recipients in the UK

63 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022). Living standards of working-age disability benefits recipients in the UK

64 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025). The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims

65 SPICe Spotlight (2025). Disability Benefit Reform – implications for Scotland

66 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies

67 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit

68 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024). Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits

69 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

70 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025) The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims

71 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2023

72 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

73 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation.

74 Murphy, L. (2024) Growing Pressures: Exploring trends in children's disability benefits, Resolution Foundation

75 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

76 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2023

77 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

78 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation.

79 Murphy, L. (2024) Growing Pressures: Exploring trends in children's disability benefits, Resolution Foundation

80 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

81 Murphy, L. (2024) Growing Pressures: Exploring trends in children's disability benefits, Resolution Foundation

82 Murphy, L. (2024) Growing Pressures: Exploring trends in children's disability benefits, Resolution Foundation

83 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

84 Murphy, L. (2024) Growing Pressures: Exploring trends in children's disability benefits, Resolution Foundation

85 SPICe Spotlight (2025). Disability Benefit Reform – implications for Scotland

86 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

87 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

88 SPICe Spotlight (2025). Disability Benefit Reform – implications for Scotland

89 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

90 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

91 SPICe Spotlight (2025). Disability Benefit Reform – implications for Scotland

92 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

93 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

94 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

95 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

96 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

97 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

98 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

99 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

100 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

101 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions

102 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

103 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

104 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation.

105 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022). The number of new disability claimants has doubled in a year.

106 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

107 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

108 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

109 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

110 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

111 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024). Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits

112 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025). The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims

113 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

114 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

115 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022). The number of new disability claimants has doubled in a year

116 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

117 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025). IFS Report The relationship between NHS waiting lists and health-related benefit claims

118 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

119 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

120 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

121 J, Cribb and H, Karjalainen and T, Waters (2022). Living standards of working-age disability benefits recipients in the UK. London: Institute for Fiscal Studies.

122 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

123 L. Try (2025) Money, money, money: The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years. Resolution Foundation

124 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

125 J, Cribb and H, Karjalainen and T, Waters (2022). Living standards of working-age disability benefits recipients in the UK. London: Institute for Fiscal Studies.

126 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

127 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

128 Murphy, L. (2025) Delivering the undeliverable. Resolution Foundation

129 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

130 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

131 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

132 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019). Welfare trends report: January 2019

133 L. Try (2025) Money, money, money: The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years. Resolution Foundation

134 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

135 J, Cribb and H, Karjalainen and T, Waters (2022). Living standards of working-age disability benefits recipients in the UK. London: Institute for Fiscal Studies.

136 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

137 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

138 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

139 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023) Analysis of Scottish tax and benefit reforms

140 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit

141 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit

142 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit

143 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

144 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2023

145 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

146 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

147 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

148 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit

149 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

150 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

151 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit

152 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023) Analysis of Scottish tax and benefit reforms

153 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

154 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

155 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

156 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit

157 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies

158 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit

159 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies

160 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

161 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit

162 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

163 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies

164 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

165 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation.

166 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023) Analysis of Scottish tax and benefit reforms

167 Joyce, R., Ray-Chaudhuri, S. and Waters, T. (2022) The number of new disability benefit claimants has doubled in a year, IFS Report R233.

168 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

169 Mosley, M. (2025) What's behind the rise in disability benefit claims. New Economics Foundation

170 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

171 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation.

172 Mosley, M. (2025) What's behind the rise in disability benefit claims. New Economics Foundation

173 Joyce, R., Ray-Chaudhuri, S. and Waters, T. (2022) The number of new disability benefit claimants has doubled in a year, IFS Report R233.

174 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023) Analysis of Scottish tax and benefit reforms

175 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

176 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

177 Joyce, R., Ray-Chaudhuri, S. and Waters, T. (2022) The number of new disability benefit claimants has doubled in a year, IFS Report R233.

178 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

179 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation.

180 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation.

181 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies.

182 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

183 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

184 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

185 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

186 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies

187 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

188 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

189 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation.

190 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies

191 Joyce, R., Ray-Chaudhuri, S. and Waters, T. (2022) The number of new disability benefit claimants has doubled in a year, IFS Report R233.

192 Murphy, L. (2025) Delivering the undeliverable. Resolution Foundation

193 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

194 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation.

195 Joyce, R., Ray-Chaudhuri, S. and Waters, T. (2022) The number of new disability benefit claimants has doubled in a year, IFS Report R233.

196 Ray-Chaudhuri, S and Waters, T. (2024). What has happened to disability benefits in Scotland? An update [Comment] Institute for Fiscal Studies

197 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

198 Murphy, L. (2025) Delivering the undeliverable. Resolution Foundation

199 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

200 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

201 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

202 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

203 L. Try (2025) Money, money, money: The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years. Resolution Foundation

204 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

205 L. Try (2025) Money, money, money: The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years. Resolution Foundation

206 L. Try (2025) Money, money, money: The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years. Resolution Foundation

207 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

208 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

209 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

210 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

211 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

212 Correspondence, Chair of the Economic Affairs Committee, to the Rt. Hon. Liz Kendall MP, 20 January 2025

213 L. Try (2025) Money, money, money: The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years. Resolution Foundation

214 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

215 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

216 Universal Credit sanctions - GOV.UK

217 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

218 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

219 B Baumberg Geiger et al, Benefits conditionality in the UK: understanding its nature, extent, and perceived reasonableness, OSF, June 2024.

220 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

221 Codreanu, M. and Waters, T., (2023). Do work search requirements work? Evidence from a UK reform targeting single parents. IFS Working Paper 23/02.

222 Correspondence, Chair of the Economic Affairs Committee, to the Rt. Hon. Liz Kendall MP, 20 January 2025

223 L. Try (2025) Money, money, money: The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years. Resolution Foundation

224 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

225 L. Try (2025) Money, money, money: The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years. Resolution Foundation

226 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

227 Benefit cap: When you're not affected - GOV.UK

228 L. Try (2025) Money, money, money: The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years. Resolution Foundation

229 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

230 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

231 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

232 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

233 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

234 Mosley, M. (2025) What’s behind the rise in disability benefit claims. New Economics Foundation.

235 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2023

236 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

237 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

238 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

239 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

240 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

241 Mosley, M. (2025) What’s behind the rise in disability benefit claims. New Economics Foundation.

242 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

243 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

244 Mosley, M. (2025) What’s behind the rise in disability benefit claims. New Economics Foundation.

245 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

246 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

247 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

248 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

249 Mosley, M. (2025) What’s behind the rise in disability benefit claims. New Economics Foundation.

250 Congreve, E. (2024). New awards of disability benefits for adults: Comparing Scotland with England and Wales, Scottish Health Equity Research Unit.

251 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2023

252 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

253 Office for Budget Responsibility (2023) Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2023, in Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

254 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2023

255 Office for Budget Responsibility (2023) Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2023, in Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

256 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2023) Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2023

257 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2024) Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - December 2024 (revised version 22 January 2025)

258 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

259 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions.

260 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

261 Ray-Chaudhuri, S. Waters, T (2024) Recent trends in and the outlook for health-related benefits. The Institute for Fiscal Studies.

262 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

263 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

264 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

265 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022). The number of new disability claimants has doubled in a year

266 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

267 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

268 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022). The number of new disability claimants has doubled in a year

269 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

270 DWP research report no. 1091 (2025) Applicants’ Journeys to Claiming PIP: Research. A report of research carried out by Basis Social on behalf of the Department for Work and Pensions.

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280 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

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286 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025) The role of changing health in rising health-related benefit claims

287 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation.

288 The Learning and Work Institute (2025) The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions

289 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019) Welfare trends report: January 2019

290 Banks, J., Karjalainen, H. and Waters, T. (2023), ‘Inequalities in disability’, IFS Deaton Review of Inequalities

291 Office for Budget Responsibility (2019) Welfare trends report: January 2019

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293 L. Judge & L. Murphy, Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation, June 2024

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310 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

311 L. Murphy (2025) Delivering the undeliverable. Resolution Foundation

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317 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

318 L. Judge & L. Murphy (2024) Under strain: Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits, Resolution Foundation

319 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

320 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

321 The Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Health-related benefit claims post-pandemic: UK trends and global context

322 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

323 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions

324 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

325 Office for Budget Responsibility (2024) Welfare trends report – October 2024

326 The Learning and Work Institute (2025). The Benefit Trap: Better support for disabled people and people with long-term health conditions

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331 latest projections

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How to access the background or source data

The following statement(s) indicate the availability of the data which underlie the results of this publication (tick all that apply):

☐ Anonymised microdata (individual-level) are stored externally at and availability is subject to their access procedures.

☐ Anonymised microdata (individual-level) are openly available from the Scottish Government website at .

☐ Aggregate data are openly available from the Scottish Government website at .

☒ Aggregate data are provided within this publication or its annexes.

☐ Data are held by Scottish Government and may be made available on request, subject to consideration of legal and ethical factors. Please contact fran.warren@gov.scot for further information.

☐ Data are held by and may be made available by them on request, subject to consideration of legal and ethical factors. Please see for further information.

☐ Data cannot be made available due to legal, ethical or security considerations.

☐ Not applicable: This publication does not present any findings directly based on data.

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