Annex: Milk estimates

Includes values for milk and milk products (butter, yoghurt, cheese, etc).

Quantities

For 2015 onwards quantities of milk produced in Scotland are estimated using Scottish Milk Survey data of dairies purchasing milk from farms in Scotland, including data provided by DEFRA on English dairies purchasing Scottish milk. If a survey return is not made by a producer, estimates are created based on the value from the same period in the previous year. These quantity estimates differ from the quarterly milk production statistics that estimate the total availability of milk in Scotland, therefore include milk purchased from out with Scotland.

Quantities until 2014 were taken from the monitoring of milk quotas.

Prices

Average monthly prices are taken from the Scottish Milk Survey. Separate calculations are made for direct sales of milk and milk products.

Value of output

Value is calculated on monthly basis using the amount of milk purchased from Scottish Farms, including data provided by DEFRA on English dairies purchasing Scottish milk and the average monthly price. 

Scottish Milk Survey

Most milk in the UK is bought by dairies (milk purchasers) for processing. Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) run a survey of milk purchasers in Scotland to collect information on the volume and value of milk purchased from Scotland and other parts of the UK. Similar surveys are run by Defra to collect data from dairies in England and Wales and DAERA in Northern Ireland.

Data are collected monthly from large dairies in Scotland and quarterly from smaller businesses. Monthly estimates are provided to Defra to produce UK statistics, these are revised when final quarterly data are available. The statistics release for Scotland is updated quarterly and includes actual survey results from all businesses for the months of the previous quarter where possible.

The majority of milk producers in Scotland are included in the survey. If a survey return is not made by a producer, estimates are created based on the previous periods values.

Milk Production Statistics 2025 Onwards

Relevance

These statistics help the sector to better understand milk capacity. They provide timely reporting on impacts to Scottish milk supply in response to market pressures or virus outbreaks.

Milk production statistics

Total estimated volumes of raw milk purchased by dairies (milk purchasers) operating in Scotland from the Scottish Milk Survey are released quarterly at Scottish milk production statistics - 2025 Onwards - Quarterly update.

Estimates include milk purchased from outwith Scotland. The data collected for this publication are obtained monthly and quarterly from a survey of raw milk purchasers operating in Scotland. The data relates to the volume (litres) of raw milk purchased from Scottish farms and the statistical notice is published quarterly. Further breakdowns of milk production and milk utilisation are not made as these risk the identification of individual businesses.

Revisions policy

Published figures for the latest quarter are ‘provisional’ while all other milk production data can be considered ‘final’. If a firm is late making a return for one of the surveys, an estimate is imputed taking into account previous returns so that the publication can go ahead on time. These estimates are replaced with actual survey data when it is received. There is a very low probability that milk production data published as ‘final’ will be amended. Any amendments made to milk production data published as ‘final’ will be made in the next release, a note will be included explaining the reasons for the amendment.