Total Income from Farming Estimates: Methodology
This report provides information on the methodology of total income from farming (TIFF) estimates. Information is included about methodology, estimation methods and limitations.
Annex: Cereal crops
Items included
Cereal crops includes wheat, barley, oats and mixed grain (mixed grain estimates include triticale from 2017 onwards).
Methodology changes and revisions
Table: Cereal crops methdology changes and revisions
|
Time period |
Change |
|---|---|
|
2017 onwards |
Triticale estimates are not made separately from 2017 onwards due to the smaller size of this crop. Estimates are combined with mixed grain. |
|
2007 onwards |
Improved methdology for use of data on what wheat is used for and weighting of prices. More information is available in the 2016 release of the TIFF Methdology. |
Quantities
Quantity = total area (June Agricultural Census) x average yield (annual Cereal Production and Disposals Survey (CPDS))
Yield data for wheat, barley and oats is derived from the CPDS. The yield for mixed grain is taken to be the Spring Barley yield. More information about the CPDS, including changes to this collection over time, is available in the cereal and oilseed rape harvest methodology.
Quantities of cereal crop by usage are derived from disposals data collected from the CPDS and/or certified seed area obtained from the Scottish Agricultural Science Agency (SASA).
Prices
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) supply RESAS with wheat, barley and oats prices (£/tonne) for cereals sold off Scottish farms for milling, malting, seed and feed. Where Scottish figures are not available Great Britain figures are used, these are then revised if Scottish figures become available. Mixed grain price is estimated relative to the feed wheat price.
Forecasts
As crop carried over as stock may be sold in future years, estimates are also made for forward prices and these are revised in the second estimates of TIFF when price data for that year is available.
Value of output
Value of output = (quantity x price) + support payment.
Value of production for wheat, barley and oats is estimated separately for cereals sold off Scottish farms and cereals used on Scottish farms. Estimates are made by type of usage where possible as different usages are associated with different prices. Total output is then the sum of estimates by usage.
For barley, wheat and oats a stock change is also applied, using an average annual price for each crop.
There are currently no support payments directly relating to cereal production.
Sold off Scottish farms
The amount of cereal sold off Scottish farms is based on the CPDS estimates of disposals to merchants or farmers outside Scotland. Disposal figures are available by tonnage sold for malting/distilling, milling, seed, feed, biofuel/industrial use and other merchant uses.
The quantity figure for cereals sold for seed is derived from the certified seed area obtained from SASA and yield from the CPDS.
Estimates are made for total quantity and value of cereal sold for each price or disposal category and summed for total value of cereal sold off Scottish farms.
Used on Scottish farms
The amount of cereal used on Scottish farms is based on CPDS estimates of disposals sold to other Scottish farmers or used on Scottish farms for feed, seed and other uses (waste etc.).
Estimates are made for total quantity and value of cereal sold for each price or disposal category and summed for total value of cereal used on Scottish farms.