Teacher Workforce Planning - 2024 exercise: statistical modelling paper

Annex A - Estimated surplus of primary teachers

Since 2019/20, we estimate that an excess of approximately 950 primary teachers have been trained.

Anecdotal evidence for over-supply of primary teachers has been reported. This paper sets out analysis to estimate the scale of the over-supply. It should be noted however that some rural local authorities still struggle to fill posts, indicating that this is not just an issue of availability of teaching posts but also of preferences by teachers for where they would like to work.

Primary pupil numbers increased every year from 2010 (365,326) until 2017 (400,312), since when they have decreased. Concurrently, the largest cohort of teachers in 2010 were in the 55-60 age bracket and set to retire as pupil numbers were increasing. Together these factors led to a need to train a higher number of primary teachers to maintain PTR in the following years.

Since 2017, primary pupil numbers have decreased and are projected to continue decreasing. The age profile of the current workforce is skewed towards the younger cohort, with less of the workforce due to reach retirement age in the near future. Therefore, the number of new primary teachers needing to be trained to maintain PTR is lower than in the early 2010s.

However, the number of teachers coming through ITE was maintained (at around 1,000) in line with the government’s commitment to increase teacher numbers by 3,500 by 2026 (see Table 1). Up to 2021 this level of ITE was mostly absorbed by an increase in teacher numbers. However, in the past two years primary teacher numbers have dropped meaning that there have been substantially more new teachers trained than have been employed.

The effect of this imbalance between training and employment can be seen in the published statistics on the employment status of post-probationers. These data show a clear decrease in teachers employed in the first year after probation from approximately 88% for the 2016/17 probationer cohort to 62% for the 2022/23 cohort.

Further analysis of the post-probationer employment data has been undertaken to produce an estimate of the excess of primary teachers that have been trained over those that have been employed. This analysis assumes, based on historical data, that a proportion of post-probationers will choose not to take-up employment in a publicly funded school in Scotland regardless of the availability of jobs. Taking this into account, it is estimated that since 2016/17 around 1,000 primary teachers have completed probation but not been able to secure subsequent employment because of job availability (see table 2). However, most of the surplus has accumulated in recent years, meaning that since 2019/20 the cumulative surplus is estimated to be around 950.

It is important to note that these estimates based on limited evidence to inform assumptions. Therefore, they should only be used to provide an indication of oversupply to help steer initial policy development.

Further caveats to note:

• most teachers working in supply would be categorised as not employed for the purposes of this analysis
• the analysis takes account of teachers’ employment status as at 2023 with adjustments made for a decrease in employment rates over time under normal conditions, as observed in the historical data
• movement of teachers in/out of teaching more than 8 years after probation is not taken account in this analysis
• a breakdown at local authority level is not possible in this analysis due to the movement of teachers between training, probation and post-probation employment.