Teacher Workforce Planning - 2024 exercise: statistical modelling paper

3. Model Inputs

3.1. Pupil projections

Statistics from the annual school pupil census show that the primary school roll has been falling since reaching a peak in 2017. Pupil projections, based on population projections, show the number of primary pupils continuing to decrease through to 2035.

At secondary level, the pupil roll increased in 2017 for the first time in 14 years and is projected to continue increasing until 2025, after which it will fall through to the end of the projection period in 2035.

Overall pupil numbers (pupils in primary, secondary and special schools) decreased in 2023 for the first time since 2011 and are projected to continue decreasing through to 2035.

These projections are based on the 2020 population projections which, following the recent fall in births, assume a lower birth rate than previous projections. An update to the 2020 population projections was published in January 2023 to account for higher than expected inward migration. This mainly affected young adult age groups, with a lagged effect on the population of school-aged children.

3.2. Teacher Numbers

In the past 5 years, we have seen a rise in teacher numbers of nearly 2,100 (a 4% increase). There have been increases across both the primary and secondary sectors compared with 2018, although primary teacher numbers have decreased since their recent peak in 2021.

The 4% increase in primary teachers (compared to the 4% decrease in pupils) since 2018 has meant that there are fewer pupils per teacher and consequently the primary PTR has decreased to 15.3, the second lowest level ever.

However, in secondary schools the number of pupils has grown at a faster rate than the number of teachers in recent years. The result of this is that the secondary PTR is now 12.5, close to the highest level since 2004.

3.3. Age profile of teachers

The age profile of teachers has changed much over the past 10 years. The prominent peak of teachers in their mid to late fifties, as seen in 2013, no longer exists. Teacher numbers are now relatively consistent from age 25 to 40 and slowly reduce in the older age groups.

3.4. Reduction rates for teaching workforce

The teacher workforce reduction rates (referred to in previous years as the wastage rates) represent the sum changes for all teachers whose FTE has reduced as a proportion of total teacher FTE between one teacher census and the next. Teachers on the Teacher Induction Scheme (TIS) have a different reduction rate pattern and so are treated separately (see TIS reduction rates below).

The higher reduction rates for women under 40 include maternity leave, whilst higher rates for those from their late-50s reflect retirement (both full and partial). The assumed rates used in the modelling for future years are based on an average of the past five years.

The one-year reduction in primary teacher FTE for all ages, averaged over the past 5 years is 3,400 (excluding TIS).

The one-year reduction in secondary teacher FTE for all ages, averaged over the past 5 years is 2,600 (excluding TIS).

3.5. Additions to the teaching workforce

The number of additions to the teaching workforce represent the sum of all increases in FTE from one teacher census to the next. This number includes existing teachers increasing their hours and the appearance of teachers in the later census having not been present in the first. This latter category includes teachers returning to teaching after an absence of over a year as well as new teachers from outside Scotland and those on non-TIS probation routes. TIS probation teachers are accounted for separately.

Numbers are used instead of rates for additions as we do not have details of the pool of non-working teachers in any year. The assumed rates used in the modelling for future years are based on an average of the past five years. This equated to 2,500 FTE primary teacher and 1,800 FTE secondary teachers.

3.6. Working patterns

There has been an overall increase in the proportion of teachers working part-time over recent years from 23% in 2017 to 26% in 2023. The move to part-time working has been accounted for in the model, within the reduction and additions assumptions described above.

3.7. Teacher Induction Scheme (TIS) reduction rates

The reduction rate for TIS represents the reduction in FTE of teachers between their TIS year and post-probation employment in the following year. Therefore, this rate accounts for reductions in FTE between TIS and post-probation due to teachers taking-up part-time posts following TIS, as well as reduction in FTE (to zero) of teachers not securing post-probation employment.

In previous years, the assumed TIS reduction rate used in the model was based on the average of the reduction rates observed over the past five years (26% of primary and 16% of secondary, 2019 to 2024). This assumption relies on the underlying premise that the limiting factor in teachers taking up post-probation employment is largely determined by the inclination of teachers to take-up the available posts. However, evidence (e.g. analysis attached at Annex A), indicates that, since 2019/20, around 950 primary teachers have completed probation but not been able to secure subsequent employment because of job availability.

Continuing with this assumption would result in an oversupply of teachers - i.e. 26% of primary and 16% of secondary teachers would not secure employment post-probation. Instead, this iteration of the model assumes a TIS reduction rate of 10%. This rate reflects the normal level of attrition observed in the historical data from times when job availability was not the main limiting factor in teachers taking-up post-probation employment.

3.8. Retention rates for ITE

Retention rates for ITE represent the proportion of students that embark on an ITE course and then go on to the TIS. These rates vary between the route used for ITE study. Retention rates for primary undergraduate and for PGDE courses are around 70% and 80% respectively. Rates for secondary courses are around 55% for undergraduate (including combined degrees) and 75% for PGDE. These rates are relatively stable over time, although they have decreased slightly in recent years.

Probationers who chose the flexible route (an alternative to the one-year, full-time TIS route) are not captured in these retention rates, instead their entry to teaching is accounted for in the model as part of the pool of additions. Increasing use of the flexible route may account for the recent decrease in rates of student transitioning from ITE to the TIS.

3.9. Supply pool

Supply pool teachers are not accounted for in the staff census, which counts only the normal complement members of staff or normal complement replacements. Teachers moving from a teaching position which is counted in the census to a supply post will be accounted for in the model in the reduction rates. No additional provision for supply staff has been included. We expect that the current level of supply pool will be maintained by staff entering it from the normal complement of teachers (the on-roll population, including probationers), accounted for by the reduction rates.

3.10. Vacancy data

This data is no longer collected, and vacancies have not been accounted for in the model.