Teacher Workforce Planning - 2024 exercise: statistical modelling paper

4. Modelling output

4.1. Modelled implications of maintaining teacher numbers

Using the data and approaches set out above, the teacher workforce planning model can be used to show the implications of maintaining teacher numbers across each sector at 2023 levels. This is shown in Table 3 which also includes the modelled overall PTR (across primary, secondary and special schools). The PTR in 2023 was 13.2, which compares to the lowest ever PTR of 12.9 in 2008. By 2026 the PTR is modelled to decrease to 12.8 and, if teacher numbers continue to be maintained, the PTR is modelled to decrease further, reaching 12.0 by 2029.

Note 1: Existing data shaded grey to distinguish from projected data in white.

Note 2: Pupil teacher ratios exclude teachers in ELC settings.

Tables 4 and 5 show the implications of maintaining teacher numbers for each sector. The primary PTR reached its lowest ever level in 2021 at 15.1. Were primary teacher numbers to be maintained, the PTR is modelled to drop to 14.1 by 2026 and 13.1 by 2029.

In contrast, the secondary PTR was 12.5 in 2023, which is very close to the highest secondary PTR since 2004. Were secondary teacher numbers to be maintained, the PTR is modelled to increase to 12.8 before dropping to 12.7 in 2026. The modelling indicates it will then decrease further to 12.3 by 2029.

Note 1: Existing data shaded grey to distinguish from projected data in white.

Note 2: The sum of sectors may not match the total due to rounding to the nearest 10.

Table 4: Teachers by sector 2018 to 2029 (actual and modelled) [Note 1]

Note 1: Existing data shaded grey to distinguish from projected data in white.

Note 2: Total includes centrally employed teachers but not teachers in ELC settings.

4.2. Modelled PGDE ITE intake requirements

The modelled primary and secondary PGDE ITE intake requirements to meet the objective of maintaining teacher numbers across each sector at 2023 levels from 2026 onwards are shown in Table 6. This modelling assumes that BEd intakes remain at 2023 levels (760 primary and 240 secondary).

The actual 2024/25 PGDE ITE intake targets were set at 955 for primary and 2,000 for secondary, which translated into estimated enrolments of 1,051 for primary and 1,062 for secondary. These enrolments are higher than those indicated by the current modelling but are broadly in line with the modelled ITE requirements presented in 2023 (1,000 in primary and secondary). However, it should be noted that the 2023 modelling was based on maintaining 54,200 FTE (versus 54,030 FTE in the current modelling) and with a TIS reduction rate assumption of 28% for primary and 19% for secondary (versus 10% for primary and secondary in the current modelling).

For 2025/26 the modelled PGDE ITE intake requirements are 740 for primary and 910 for secondary. For 2026/27 and beyond the modelled PGDE ITE intake requirements for primary and secondary increase slightly before decreasing through to 2029/30. This pattern is driven by the changes to the modelled age profile of the teaching workforce in the coming years.

The overall modelled ITE intake requirements for 2025/26 across BEd and PGDE are therefore 1,500 for primary and 1,150 for secondary.