Teacher Workforce Planning - 2024 exercise: statistical modelling paper

2. Modelling approach

The teacher workforce planning model estimates the size of the future teaching workforce, based on current data and assumptions about inflows and outflows to the pool of employed teachers. In this instance, the model was used to determine the level of ITE intake (which forms part of the total inflows) required to maintain teacher numbers at 2023 levels.

The model is also used to generate estimates of future pupil rolls, based on official population projections. These can then be used, in combination with the estimated size of the future teaching workforce, to estimate future pupil teacher ratios (PTRs).

The modelling described here uses the most recent data available, i.e. the 2023 school pupil and staff censuses, the 2020-based national population projections (updated in January 2023 to take account of higher inward migration than previously thought) and 2024 enrolments to ITE. In some cases, this data has been used to create an assumption about future trends, this is described further below.