Teacher Workforce Planning - 2024 exercise: statistical modelling paper

1. Objective

The objective of this iteration of modelling was to calculate the initial teacher education (ITE) student intake required for 2025/26 to maintain teacher numbers across each sector at 2023 levels (overall 54,030 full-time equivalent (FTE)).

There are two main routes into teaching: the four-year BEd (undergraduate) and one-year PGDE (postgraduate). The modelling described here only considers varying the levels of PGDE ITE intake and assumes constant BEd intake.

Following ITE, teachers may embark on probationer employment as a provisionally registered teacher. On completion of probation, teachers are eligible to apply for full registration. The Official Statistics on teacher numbers include both provisionally and fully registered teachers in the overall count of teacher FTE.

Therefore, the earliest point at which the 2025/26 PGDE ITE intake can enter employment as teachers and be captured in the teacher number statistics is 2026 (as probationers).