Scottish Housing Market Review: Q1 2022

Housing Supply: Starts and Completions

New build completions

The most recent published Scottish Government figures for new build completions cover the year to end June 2021, in which there were 18,974 completions across all sectors in Scotland, an increase of 10.2% (1,751 homes) on the previous year, when activity levels were affected by Covid-19 related lockdown measures.

Private New Build Sales

While more recent data on private completions is not available due to delays as a result of Covid-19-related data supply issues, the UK HPI does include private new build sales, which provide a good indication of latest trends. As Chart 6.1 shows, while private new build sales decreased during the restrictions on non-essential construction activity in Q2 2020, falling by 85% annually in May 2020, there has been a strong recovery since then, with an increase in private new build sales on a rolling one year basis to November 2021 of 22.8%. When we compare the one year period to November 2021 against the one year period to November 2019 (i.e. prior to Covid-19), private new build sales fell by 6.8%.

Source: UK HPI (Scotland)

Chart 6.2 provides the growth in private new build sales by region over the one year period to Q3 2021, relative to the year prior. Private new build sales increased by an annual 23.1% for Scotland as a whole. Analysing the data by region, it can be seen that private new build sales increased in all regions shown, with the largest increase in private new build sales in Aberdeen/shire and Moray (37.2%) and the smallest increase in private new build sales in the Forth Valley of 3.9%. (Source: UK HPI).

Source: UK HPI (Scotland)

Affordable Housing Supply Programme

Chart 6.3 shows that the supply of affordable housing has increased since the restrictions on non-essential construction activity were eased in Q3 2020, although supply remains below the Q1 2020 level. 9,211 affordable housing completions were recorded in 2021, an increase of 35.5% compared to 2020, in which activity was affected by Covid-19 related lockdown measures. However, over the same period approvals have fallen by 17.4% to 8,398, whilst starts have decreased by 4.5% to 9,679. (Source: SG).

Source: Scottish Government