Housing insecurity and hidden homelessness: research

3 Background information

3.1 Introduction

This chapter begins by describing the existing legal and policy context on homelessness in Scotland, including how homelessness is currently measured. It draws on the existing literature to provide an overview of the main drivers of homelessness; these are presented as structural economic factors, interpersonal relationships, and individual factors. This chapter also draws on international literature where it is relevant.

As will be seen, the drivers of hidden homelessness, and the routes into and out of it, are similar to those of visible homelessness.

3.2 Homelessness in Scotland

Under the Housing (Scotland) Act 1987, a person should be treated as homeless, even if they have accommodation, if it would not be reasonable to remain living in it with their entire household. ‘Threatened with homelessness’ refers to situations where it is likely that an individual will become homeless within two months (Scottish Government, 2025).

Scotland removed the distinction between ‘priority’ and ‘non-priority’ applicants in 2012.^[7] It ensured that all eligible homeless households in Scotland who were not ‘intentionally’ homeless had to be provided with settled accommodation. Households that are not eligible include people with no recourse to public funds (Scottish Government, 2020)

The homeless application process in Scotland involves three stages:

1. the application stage – where an applicant first presents to the local authority

2. the assessment stage – a local authority must determine if an applicant is eligible for assistance and whether they are homeless or threatened with homelessness; it may also consider whether they are intentionally homeless

3. the outcome stage – a case can only be closed once the local authority has fulfilled its statutory duty or contact has been lost for 28 days (Scottish Government, 2020).

Many of those who seek homelessness assistance from the local authority first spend time in temporary accommodation before securing settled housing. Local authorities usually discharge the settled accommodation duty through an offer of social housing. In a small number of statutory homeless cases, the main rehousing duty is discharged through an offer of privately rented housing. Those with no recourse to public funds cannot access housing assistance from local authorities.

Local authorities must provide advice on housing options to those threatened with homelessness. They must also take reasonable steps to ensure that those who are unintentionally threatened with homelessness do not lose their accommodation (Scottish Government, 2019).

Local authorities often commission third sector organisations to deliver specialist support services, and these are frequently the first point of contact for people seeking homelessness support. They can help to build relationships and direct people to statutory and other resources. Third sector organisations can facilitate assistance from local authority homelessness services and provide specialist interventions.

The Scottish Government has committed to ending homelessness through the Ending Homelessness Together action plan (Scottish Government, 2020). It outlines how national and local government, along with the third sector, can collaborate to end homelessness in Scotland. The action plan aims to accelerate the shift towards 'rapid rehousing.' This approach helps people experiencing homelessness secure stable housing quickly, reducing the time spent in temporary accommodation.

The Housing (Scotland) Bill (2024)^[8] proposes new ‘ask and act’ duties on homelessness. It proposes that a duty will be placed on social landlords and relevant public sector organisations, such as health boards and the police, to enquire about a person’s housing situation and act to prevent homelessness. If preventing homelessness is not possible, the Bill, if passed, would require them to refer the individual to a local authority homelessness service. The Bill also proposes extending the period within which local authorities must act to prevent homelessness from the current 56 days to six months before homelessness is likely to occur. Additionally, the Bill includes provisions for people experiencing domestic abuse, such as new pre-action requirements for those in rent arrears and a mandate for social landlords to have a domestic abuse policy.

3.3 Measuring homelessness in Scotland

Local authorities collect data on homelessness during the processing of statutory homelessness applications. The Scottish Government publishes this data twice a year, along with trend analyses. These trends include reasons for homelessness, prior circumstances, and the number of households in temporary accommodation at a given time. The data also covers recent experiences of rough sleeping. Additionally, the statistics include those currently experiencing homelessness and those threatened with homelessness. However, individuals who do not make a homelessness application to their local authority are not captured in the official statistics, making them hidden from official estimates. Currently, there is no robust method to directly measure this hidden population (Scottish Government, 2025).

These data gaps make it challenging to understand the full extent of homelessness in Scotland. Although there is no direct quantification, research studies offer estimates of various circumstances of homelessness, some of which are often associated with hidden homelessness. The Homelessness Monitor Scotland 2024 (Watts et al., 2024) is a longitudinal study examining the impact of recent economic and policy developments on homelessness. This study provides analysis of trends and patterns, helping to inform policy and support efforts to address homelessness in Scotland. The Homelessness Monitor triangulates official homelessness statistics (HL1)^[9] with various survey datasets. These include the specialist Destitution in the UK Survey, the Scottish Household Survey and the Labour Force Survey. This combined data analysis is used to model and project trends in what they term ‘core’ homelessness - the most extreme circumstances of homelessness, many aspects of which are generally associated with hidden homelessness.^[10]

The Homelessness Monitor Scotland 2024 (Watts et al., 2024) estimated that sofa surfing accounted for the largest proportion of core homelessness. This type of homelessness, which is often associated with hidden homelessness, accounted for over half of the people or households experiencing core homelessness in 2022 (54%; 11,630).

3.4 Drivers of homelessness in Scotland

The literature suggests that a range of factors contribute to homelessness, often involving interrelated causes (Scottish Government, 2023). According to the Homelessness Monitor Scotland (2024):

“Theoretical, historical and international perspectives indicate that the causation of homelessness is complex, with no single ‘trigger’ that is either ‘necessary’ or ‘sufficient’ for it to occur. Individual, interpersonal and structural factors all play a role – and interact with each other – and the balance of causes differs over time, across countries, and between demographic groups .” (Watts et al., 2024)

This section describes three sets of underlying factors that may lead to homelessness: structural economic factors, interpersonal relationships and individual factors (Fitzpatrick, Bramley and Johnsen, 2013).

In Scotland, data from April to September 2024 showed that the primary immediate reason for homelessness applications was family and friends no longer willing to accommodate people and asking them to leave, accounting for 26% of all applications. Other main reasons included a non-violent relationship breakdown or household dispute (19%) followed by a violent or abusive household dispute (13%) (Scottish Government, 2025).

3.4.1 Structural economic factors

Poverty is the key driver of homelessness, with childhood poverty predicting homelessness in adulthood (Bramley and Fitzpatrick, 2018). In Scotland, three-year estimates covering the period 2020 to 2023 showed that 21% of the population (1,110,000 people each year) lived in relative poverty after housing costs (Scottish Government, 2024b). The percentage of working-age adults in relative poverty increased from 18% in the period 1994 to 1997 to 21% in the period 2020 to 2023. Relative child poverty remained stable at 24% in the 2020 to 2023 period after housing costs, in comparison with the 2017 to 2020 period.

The ongoing cost-of-living crisis, rising energy costs, and increasing private rents exacerbate this issue. In Scotland, there were 20,823 homelessness applications recorded from April to September 2024. This figure represents an increase of 1% compared to the corresponding period in the previous year (when 20,528 applications were made) and an increase of 21% (17,218) compared to April to September 2020 during COVID-19, the last comparable period before the cost-of-living crisis (Scottish Government, 2025; Scottish Government, 2021a). This data highlights the increase in people experiencing homelessness since the cost-of-living crisis.

Welfare reforms introduced by the previous UK government have led to cuts in benefits for the poorest households. For example, since the withdrawal of a pandemic-prompted uplift in the Universal Credit standard allowance in Autumn 2021, the real value of benefits has declined as inflation has risen sharply, only partially mitigated by the 6.7% rise in benefits in April 2024 (House of Commons Library, 2023). Over the longer term, the decade to 2023/2024 saw the Universal Credit basic allowance increase by just 7%, compared to earnings and price increases of 26-37% (Bramley, 2023). The Homelessness Monitor 2024 (Watts et al., 2024) identified that freezing of Local Housing Allowance rates from 2020 for private sector tenancies,^[11] after a previous freeze from 2016, was a key challenge for local authorities in preventing or relieving homelessness. Local Housing Allowance rates were unfrozen in April 2024 (Department for Work & Pensions, 2024).

Higher rental costs reduce the availability of affordable, stable housing and can lead to housing insecurity, especially for those reliant on Local Housing Allowances that may fall far short of actual rent levels (Watts et al., 2024).

3.4.2 Interpersonal relationships

The literature flags the role of interpersonal relationships in providing stability in people's lives. This means that a breakdown of these relationships can lead to homelessness. For example, a young adult may be asked to leave their family home due to overcrowding or behavioural tensions (Watts, Johnsen and Sosenko, 2015). Other violent or non-violent disputes within a household are also key routes into homelessness. Relationship breakdown may also occur due to declining mental health or conflicts around gender identity or sexual orientation.

A person may become homeless if they must leave their home to protect themselves from violence (Bimpson, Green and Reeve, 2021). In Scotland, violent or abusive household disputes are the third most common reason for homelessness applications (13%) (Scottish Government, 2025). For women, such disputes account for 23% of presentations to statutory homelessness services, compared to 5% of men (Scottish Government, 2024a).^[12] Under Scottish (and wider UK) legislation, a person is classified as homeless if it is unsafe to remain in their current residence.

Evidence indicates that adverse experiences in childhood can impact on behaviour and the need for support later in life, making it challenging to sustain accommodation (Johnsen and Blenkinsopp, 2024). Previous experiences of adversity and trauma, such as child or domestic abuse, can affect mental health and the ability to maintain healthy relationships. In these circumstances, people may adopt coping mechanisms, such as substance use, which are not conducive to maintaining stable housing (Johnsen and Blenkinsopp, 2024).

3.4.3 Individual factors

A person's individual circumstances such as transitioning out of institutional or state-mandated forms of care can increase their risk of experiencing homelessness. Examples described in the literature include leaving care, being discharged from hospital, or being released from prison (Fitzpatrick, Bramley and Johnsen, 2013). For instance, care leavers may be at risk if they lack adequate support during and after the transition.

Research shows that people leaving prison with a lack of accommodation, identification documents and a bank account are at risk of experiencing homelessness (Bozkina and Harwick, 2021). Other reasons include the breakdown of previous relationships and the lack of a support network and additionally, limitations on where they can be accommodated given the nature of crimes committed or probation requirements (Crisis, 2023).

For those being discharged from hospital, recent research suggests that adult safeguarding systems can fail, resulting in people being discharged to unsuitable accommodation. Such research cites challenges including a shortage of appropriate accommodation, pressures from within the hospital to discharge patients to free up beds, and a lack of long-term care placements (Pathway and Crisis, 2024).

Health and wellbeing can also influence routes into homelessness. One study conducted in London and published in 2020, described how 54% of people experiencing homelessness in their sample reported that health issues and/or substance use contributed to them experiencing homelessness (Groundswell, 2020). More specifically for hidden homelessness, this research found that for some people struggling with mental health issues, the stress and anxiety associated with their condition can present challenges to navigating the often-complicated processes. This was described as intimidating and presented as a barrier for people to seek assistance from local authorities for stable housing.