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Publication - Research and analysis

US Export Plan

Published
12 June 2026
From
Director of International Trade and Investment
Directorate
International Trade and Investment Directorate, +2 more … Culture and External Affairs Directorate, Economic Development Directorate
Topic
Business, industry and innovation, Economy, International
ISBN
9781807752606

The USA Export Plan has been developed to provide targeted, state-level

insights that highlights where Scotland’s export strengths most effectively

align with specific US market demands. This is delivered through robust

evidence-backed deliverables including sector summaries.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

Sector-to-State Matrix

Drawing on over 100 KPIs and using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), this visual matrix maps Scotland’s priority export sectors against US states, highlighting where the best overall fits exist between Scottish strengths and state-level opportunities. This results in a shortlist of five US states per sector that are top priorities for Scotland. This has been stress tested with key stakeholders to ensure that the short list is robust and grounded in the practical insights. Alongside this, sensitivity analysis was carried out to test the robustness of the results against changes in weights of scoring criteria. The tool’s flexibility and adaptability enable the Scottish Government to update it in future years and adjust weightings as needed, ensuring it remains responsive to the evolving trade landscape and emerging export priorities.

Screenshot of Matrix tool

Dashboard titled “Overview of results” showing Texas selected, with scores and rankings across sectors including General, Food & Drinks, Space, Finance & Business Services, Energy, Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing, Healthtech and Digital Health, Fintech, and Pharma Services, plus a table listing top five states by sector.

Approach to matrix

The Matrix indicators are grouped into three broad categories:

General – This category captures measures reflecting the overall population and broad business environment including population, population growth, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a Connectivity composite score and CNBC’s ‘Ease of Doing business’ index.

Competitiveness – These indicators assess the strengths and openness of the market. Includes measures on import concentration, presence of trade enablers such as MOU’s and percentage of imports sourced from the UK.

Market potential – Includes size of market opportunity including wide range of measures that varies by sector such as GDP by sector, number of businesses in sector, Venture Capital deals by sector. This category also includes more niche sector-specific measures such as number of spaceports (Space), Food and drink sales (Food & Drink), percentage of power by renewables (Renewables), presence of regulatory sandboxes (FinTech) and health insurance premiums (HealthTech and Digital Health).

Overall performance combines results across all sectors and the general indicators, applying a weighting of 10% for each sector and 20% for the general indicators.

Sector-to-State Summary Matrix

The table below provides a visual of the sector-to-state Matrix for all US states. The numbers reflect the ranked position relative to all other states – with 1 indicating greatest opportunity overall.

Overall Rank State General Food and Drink Space Financial & Business Services Renewables and Low-carbon energy Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing HealthTech and Digital Health FinTech Pharma
1 California 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
2 Texas 3 4 2 5 2 2 3 5 2
3 Florida 1 2 3 3 27 5 6 1 9
4 New York 5 3 20 2 3 7 2 3 13
5 Illinois 16 5 25 4 6 10 7 4 7
6 Massachusetts 11 12 17 6 5 14 5 22 5
7 North Carolina 8 34 13 7 17 4 4 7 3
8 New Jersey 4 8 34 16 11 9 12 29 4
9 Washington 18 6 5 10 18 11 8 14 12
10 Colorado 14 10 4 8 13 18 19 20 20
11 Georgia 7 9 19 9 40 8 21 15 21
12 Indiana 15 7 28 19 19 6 9 33 10
13 Ohio 23 35 8 15 41 12 11 11 11
14 Pennsylvania 12 38 14 14 36 15 17 31 6
15 Utah 19 44 36 20 8 16 14 6 16
16 Virginia 6 37 6 17 28 22 20 25 27
17 Delaware 17 23 39 12 10 30 26 10 23
18 Arizona 13 27 10 24 16 17 24 9 28
19 South Carolina 10 16 30 27 22 13 18 42 15
20 Tennessee 9 21 29 25 46 23 15 35 8
21 Minnesota 27 17 12 13 30 28 10 28 24
22 Maryland 20 28 11 21 45 24 13 40 22
23 Connecticut 22 19 21 11 31 29 28 27 18
24 Nevada 26 22 15 34 4 42 38 8 42
25 Missouri 25 15 22 23 42 25 27 17 26
26 Michigan 44 40 9 18 37 3 22 39 19
27 Oklahoma 43 13 18 33 15 20 16 23 37
28 Kentucky 21 14 33 36 38 26 35 24 14
29 Oregon 32 43 27 22 9 19 25 30 30
30 Louisiana 40 20 32 32 7 38 23 34 17
31 Wisconsin 30 11 31 26 44 21 30 38 31
32 Alabama 28 36 7 30 48 27 31 49 29
33 Hawaii 31 26 24 46 23 47 50 13 46
34 Kansas 35 18 26 28 32 34 33 47 33
35 New Mexico 47 31 16 44 14 43 36 48 38
36 Rhode Island 36 29 49 39 25 31 29 36 34
37 Nebraska 33 30 46 35 35 35 34 32 35
38 Alaska 29 25 35 48 50 50 39 26 49
39 New Hampshire 24 46 23 43 34 32 46 37 41
40 Arkansas 41 24 41 38 49 44 32 46 40
41 Wyoming 45 41 43 31 21 45 44 12 48
42 Maine 38 47 45 41 12 36 42 44 44
43 West Virginia 49 39 44 49 24 33 41 16 25
44 South Dakota 48 33 47 50 29 49 49 21 43
45 Idaho 34 49 38 37 39 46 47 43 32
46 Iowa 42 42 42 29 26 39 40 45 36
47 North Dakota 50 32 48 47 20 41 37 41 50
48 Montana 39 50 40 45 43 48 43 18 45
49 Mississippi 37 45 37 40 47 40 45 50 39
50 Vermont 46 48 50 42 33 37 48 19 47

Broadly, the top five states overall - California, Texas, Florida, New York, and Illinois - demonstrate strengths across all priority sectors. In particular, California and Texas consistently rank in the top 5 in every sector assessed, reflecting their role as large, established economies with high GDP and consumer spending, deep venture investment, substantial UK import flows, and world‑renowned industry clusters (e.g., the San Francisco Bay Area and Greater Los Angeles in California; Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth in Texas). Florida also performs strongly across most sectors (with the exception of Renewables), followed by New York, which combines scale with concentrated strengths in high‑value, knowledge‑intensive industries. Illinois rounds out the top five, showing solid, broad‑based performance across the majority of sectors, with comparatively less depth in space but sustained competitiveness elsewhere.

Beyond the big five: Secondary states with sector-specific potential

The matrix also highlights several states that buck the overall trend, performing exceptionally well in a specific priority sector while ranking lower in overall performance. These states present distinct niche, sector‑specific opportunities that may warrant targeted exploration alongside the primary market focus.

Specifically, these states rank within the top 20 for the relevant sector but fall outside the top five overall, indicating specialised opportunities where targeted engagement could deliver disproportionate impact. The following states exemplify this pattern:

  • Wisconsin (Food and Drink) - The state’s large F&B industry, global linkages, and strong demand for high‑quality, innovative products make it a promising US region for market entry for some businesses in the sector. Notably, 7 out of the 10 largest food companies in the world have operations in Wisconsin and it is the number one producer of cheese in the US[7].
  • Alabama (Space) – Alabama (especially Huntsville or “Rocket City”) has one of the most significant and fastest growing space ecosystems in the US. Its importance is underlined by the transition of the US Space Command headquarters being relocated to Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville[8]. For Scottish exporters it presents opportunities for companies in precision engineering, advanced material, propulsion components and dual-use technologies.
  • Maine (Renewables and low-carbon) – Maine has a fully developed offshore wind roadmap and possesses 156 GW of offshore wind capacity in deep water. It is well suited for floating wind which aligns with Scotland’s global expertise in this field. However, BOEM cancellations in 2025 have created uncertainty, despite the state remaining committed to the long-term development of offshore wind.
  • Wyoming (FinTech) – While not a broad-based FinTech cluster (like California and NY), it is an emerging crypto-friendly state, attracting blockchain and alternative lending ventures. Start-ups in blockchain and FinTech sectors are increasingly attracted to the state due to its clear supportive legislative framework, tax incentives and unique banking structure[9].

Contact

Email: William.Gray@gov.scot

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