US Export Plan

Executive Summary

Context

In the Programme for Government (2025) the Scottish Government committed to developing a Six Point Export Plan which focuses on actions to unlock target markets, showcase Scotland to global buyers and enable more companies to participate in trade missions to both established and emerging markets. The first step in this Six Point Plan is the development of the US Export Plan to identify states offering the best markets for Scottish products.

This research delivers on that commitment. It provides an independent, data-driven, sector-specific assessment of the US Market at a state level, identifying where Scotland’s strengths most effectively align with US demand, while identifying specific trends and opportunities over the longer term. The USA Export Plan serves both a strategic and practical purpose. It will inform decision-making, support businesses to target the right areas, and strengthens the evidence base underpinning Scotland’s US Trade.

It should also be emphasised that this Export Plan does not replace or diminish any of Scotland’s established sector strategies, including the Food and Drink Export Plan, Technology Sector Export Plan and Life Sciences Export Plan and others. Rather, the report is intended to complement and reinforce these strategies by offering detailed insights and recommendations.

Evidence based

This Plan is delivered through robust evidence-backed deliverables including sector summaries, sector-to-state matrix, priority state profiles and recommendations. A critical component of the development process has been regular engagement and consultation with key stakeholders, creating a feedback loop that ensures the final report reflects real-time market intelligence and on-the-ground insight.

The key deliverables that form this export plan are:

Sector Export Reports: Provides detailed analysis and commentary for each of the eight priority sectors. Each report includes an overview of the sector’s economic contribution within Scotland, long-term trends, market competition and the comparative positioning of Scotland’s sectors against international peers. It also draws out market trends in the USA; significant issues around regulation, competition, and market entry in that sector; and an identification of at least five US states where opportunities in that sector appear most promising for Scotland.

Within this report we provide short sector summaries for each sector while the detailed sector reports can be provided on request.

Sector-to-State Matrix: Drawing on over 100 KPIs and using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), this visual matrix maps Scotland’s priority export sectors against US states, highlighting where the best overall fits exist between Scottish strengths and state-level demand and opportunities. This results in a shortlist of five US states per sector that are top priorities for Scotland.

The matrix is provided as a standalone Excel tool that Scottish Government can update and adapt in future years, ensuring it remains responsive to the evolving trade landscape and emerging export priorities. Within this report, we include a visual summary derived from the matrix to highlight how US states perform on each of the priority sectors.

Priority state profiles: Provides detailed overviews of each of the five top priority states overall including key information on the state’s economic and regulatory landscape, any international agreements of MoUs with the UK (if applicable) and the specific sectors or areas of export opportunity for Scotland in that state.

Recommendations: Provides robust and actionable recommendations for Scottish Government that are practical, targeted and aligned with the needs of Scottish exporters, with a focus on facilitating market entry and long-term growth.

106 Indicators feeding into Matrix

40 Stakeholder consultations

50+ Reports reviewed

Top priority states overall

Drawing on over 100 KPI’s covering dimensions of economy and infrastructure, competitiveness and market potential, we can reveal that the top overall priority states informed by the Matrix are California, Texas, Florida, New York and Illinois. Each of these states score highly across multiple priority sectors (see ‘Sector highlights’ below) and emerge as high-opportunity markets, signalling both current commercial attractiveness and future growth potential for Scottish exporters. Common strengths across these five states include large populations, strong economic foundations, high openness to trade, robust import activity, significant venture capital investment, and globally recognised industry clusters. At the same time, each offers distinct advantages: Texas’s pro‑business environment, California’s world‑renowned Silicon Valley, New York’s global leadership in financial services, Florida’s thriving tourism and hospitality scene and Illinois’s logistical advantages all bring unique value propositions to exporters considering market entry and expansion. The findings from this research highlight not only the top five priority states, but also a range of other notable opportunity states that also present promising prospects. While these markets may be smaller in scale compared to the top five overall, they offer niche, sector‑specific opportunities or represent emerging markets with strong future potential.

Top priority states overall

1. California

2. Texas

3. Florida

4. New York

5. Illinois

Other notable opportunity states include:

Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Washington, North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Ohio, Minnesota, Utah, Connecticut, Maryland, and Virginia

Sector highlights

This plan is not solely about concentrating efforts on the top five states; it is about achieving the depth of insight needed to understand which subsector strengths within each priority sector best align with US demand at the state level. Through extensive stakeholder consultation, research, and data analysis, we have examined each of the eight priority sectors in detail to identify the subsector opportunity areas that match US market needs, and the top five priority states that offer the strongest opportunities for those specific strengths, as defined by the Matrix.

However, the data represents only one side of the story. Our extensive stakeholder consultations have also highlighted a number of other notable opportunity states which - although not ranking within the overall top five - offer alternative, strategic pathways for Scottish exporters. While these markets may present smaller‑scale opportunities, they often provide more specialised or differentiated prospects, particularly in areas where Scottish companies hold distinct competitive advantages.

The following page summarises notable sub-sector strengths across the eight sectors, the states that present the greatest opportunities and other notable opportunity states outside the top five. One-page sector summaries are provided in Chapter 4 (Sector report summaries) while the detailed sector reports can be provided on request.

Sector: Food and Drink

Sub-sector opportunities:

Premium grocery

Whisky

Scottish salmon

Dairy

Functional beverages (emerging)

Top 5 priority states:

1. California

2. Florida

3. New York

4. Texas

5. Illinois

Other notable opportunity states:

Massachusetts

Pennsylvania

Sector: Engineering & Advanced Manufacturing

Sub-sector opportunities:

Robotics & automation

Advanced materials

Subsea & marine tech

Semiconductors

Quantum & Photonics

Top 5 priority states:

1. California

2. Texas

3. Michigan

4. North Carolina

5. Florida

Other notable opportunity states:

Pennsylvania

Massachusetts

Washington

Maryland

Sector: FinTech

Sub-sector opportunities:

RegTech

Payments

WealthTech

Open Banking & Open Finance

Top 5 priority states:

1. Florida

2. California

3. New York

4. Illinois

5. Texas

Other notable opportunity states:

Washington (Seattle)

North Carolina (Charlotte)

Georgia (Atlanta)

Sector: Renewables & Low-carbon

Sub-sector opportunities:

CCS & CCUS

Clean fuel

Geothermal

Grid modernisation

Wind (longer term)

Green & blue hydrogen (longer term)

Top 5 priority states:

1. California

2. Texas

3. New York

4. Nevada

5. Massachusetts

Other notable opportunity states:

Louisiana

Ohio

Illinois

Sector: Space

Sub-sector opportunities:

Small satellite manufacturing

Vertical launch

Satellite data analytics, AI, and geospatial services

Top 5 priority states:

1. California

2. Texas

3. Florida

4. Colorado

5. Washington

Other notable opportunity states:

Washington DC

Ohio

Utah

Sector: Financial & Business Services

Sub-sector opportunities:

Asset management

Banking

Insurance

Professional services

Top 5 priority states:

1. California

2. New York

3. Florida

4. Illinois

5. Texas

Other notable opportunity states:

Massachusetts

Connecticut

Sector: HealthTech & Digital Health

Sub-sector opportunities:

MedTech and regulated medical device

AI diagnostics

Telehealth

Top 5 priority states:

1. California

2. New York

3. Texas

4. North Carolina

5. Massachusetts

Other notable opportunity states:

Florida

Minnesota

Sector: Pharmaceutical Services

Sub-sector opportunities:

Clinical trial activity

Drug discovery, development, and manufacturing services

Biologics & advanced therapies

Top 5 priority states:

1. California

2. Texas

3. North Carolina

4. New Jersey

5. Massachusetts

Other notable opportunity states:

Connecticut

Washington DC / Maryland / Virginia

Recommendations

There is considerable overlap between the strengths of the Scottish economy and the demands of the US market, and the US is already the single largest destination for Scottish exports outside the EU. While many Scottish companies are doing well there already, the market shows notable opportunity for further growth, and the longevity and strength of the trading relationship was reaffirmed last year through the update to A Trading Nation’s (ATN) priority market list. Scotland’s heritage and identity are well recognised and valued across the US, further reinforcing the relationship, and from the global reputation of Scottish provenance in food and drink to the enduring cultural ties shared between the two nations, there is a powerful platform for building distinctive long‑term commercial engagement. A range of emerging Scottish areas of global leadership are also well suited to the US market creating new and developing opportunities alongside the areas in which Scotland already excels.

The Scottish Government actively supports exports to the US in a number of ways including:

• In market presence: There is a range of resource on the ground in the USA to help Scottish exporters. This includes Scottish Development International (SDI) in-market specialists, as well as Global Scots and Trade Envoys, and the Scottish Government Washington Hub; all of whom work closely with in market UK Government leads.
• Delivery of a range of focused activity: There are well formed plans and strategies in place with a specific focus on increasing Scottish exports to the US in many key areas; including the Food and Drink Export Plan, Life Sciences Export Plan, and the Space Strategy.
• Export promotion: A diverse range of export promotion activity and trade events are delivered across the US, including major sector trade shows such as Seafood Expo North America (SENA) for seafood, the Winter Fancy Food Show for food and drink, and the BIO International Convention for life sciences. These are complemented by high profile annual activities to support exporters such as NYC Tartan Week and targeted trade missions to key regions.
• Support programmes for businesses: There are US-focused practical export support programmes currently being delivered to Scottish businesses, such as the US Market Booster programme delivered by Scottish Enterprise.

Turning insight into action

The detailed analysis and consultation in this report is designed to support the further strengthening of this wide range of activity by maximising the focus of activity in the US through:

• Ensuring the Scottish Government has a robust evidence-based framework for identifying and engaging with sectoral and sub-sectoral opportunities across the US
• Enabling the Scottish Government to use this framework to ensure its state level engagement reflects sectoral and sub sectoral strengths in both Scotland and the USA
• Helping the Scottish Government to assess and engage with the most important geographical locations for the promotion of key sectors, and sub-sectors, by using this framework

Recommendations and key findings

Recognition that states offer multiple sectoral opportunities

The analysis indicates that many of the top priority states demonstrate strengths across multiple sectors. For example, California and Texas consistently rank within the top five across all sectors assessed, highlighting their breadth of opportunity. These states therefore offer multiple sectoral prospects that should be fully maximised.

Conversely, other states exhibit more concentrated sector‑specific strengths. Engagement in these markets can therefore be more targeted, focusing on export opportunities that align directly with their competitive advantages. Examples include Michigan for engineering and advanced manufacturing, Connecticut for insurance within financial services, Massachusetts for pharmaceutical services and HealthTech, and Washington state for the traditional space sector.

Targeting specific locations

The state profiles also highlight key hubs within each state that exhibit particular sectoral strengths. Examples include San Francisco in California being strongly associated with FinTech innovation, and Houston in Texas being a major space-sector hub. This visibility enables a more targeted approach to developing export opportunities, allowing activity to be focused on specific localities within states where sectoral potential is strongest.

Reaffirming the importance of a dual-track prioritisation approach

The findings from this research highlight not only the top five priority states, but also a range of additional opportunity states that also present promising prospects. While these markets may be smaller in scale compared to the top five overall, they offer niche, sector‑specific opportunities or represent emerging markets with strong future potential. This reinforces the importance of a dual‑track prioritisation approach that recognises the value of focused, resource‑intensive engagement in the highest‑priority markets, while also remaining agile in cultivating sector‑specific or early mover advantages within the wider set of opportunity markets. A balanced assessment of opportunity against market competitiveness, and saturation, will be pivotal to the successful allocation of support and focus.

The benefits of this approach include better alignment with individual business needs, greater flexibility in responding to policy and regulatory shifts, more efficient allocation and targeting of in market resources and a stronger future pipeline of US opportunities.

Growing Scottish exports at a US and State level

The framework provides a detailed assessment of the inter-dependency of Federal and State level issues in how they influence the growth of Scottish exports.

This gives the Scottish Government its first ever US-wide assessment of state-level export growth opportunities which will allow it to focus and further build presence in select individual states and continue to engage at a federal level on trade and export growth opportunities.

The commercial opportunity by state

The research in this report highlights that identifying the most suitable US states for Scottish businesses requires a careful assessment of a wide range of factors. These include the overall market environment, such as sector growth trajectories, competitive intensity, availability of specialist supply chains, and the maturity of local customer demand, as well as a clear understanding of the political and regulatory landscape. Both federal and state-specific regulations can create barriers to entry, particularly where licensing, compliance, procurement rules, or restrictions on foreign participation differ from one state to another. Each sector, sub-sector and individual exporter will be subject to a unique combination of these factors, but the evidence in this report, and the matrix within the report, gives an aggregated view for the Scottish Government to use to make decisions on an on-going basis factoring in the key information.

The role of Scotland-to-State engagement

Another important consideration is the presence of existing MoUs between Scotland and specific US states in priority sectors. These agreements can create more favourable conditions for market entry by establishing structured channels for collaboration, offering clearer policy alignment, and providing Scottish companies with a more supported and visible pathway into those markets. Such agreements also give a powerful signal to Scottish exporters that they often used as a proxy for ease of doing business. The report provides the evidence, and framework, for considering where to focus such attention in the future.

Emerging State level policy development

State‑level engagement is also shaped by broader business conditions, including tax structures, labour availability, infrastructure quality, and the overall openness of the state to international investors. Some states actively promote foreign direct investment and maintain a business‑friendly environment, while others may demonstrate a stronger preference for supporting locally headquartered firms. For example, Texas is widely regarded as offering comparatively favourable business conditions and a more welcoming regulatory climate for external investment than many other states.

Additionally, the attractiveness of a state is influenced by how the priority sectors themselves operate within that jurisdiction. An example of this is the ‘open’ and ‘control’ states in the US to regulate the distribution and sale of alcoholic beverages. In control states, more restrictive product listings, pricing oversight, and administrative hurdles can limit how effectively Scottish alcohol producers can enter and scale within the market, regardless of otherwise favourable conditions. Similarly, in the FinTech and HealthTech sectors, state-level differences in data privacy laws, digital infrastructure requirements, cybersecurity standards, and financial regulatory rules can add layers of compliance complexity on top of federal oversight. These factors can substantially shape commercial feasibility and dictate the level of investment required for market readiness. In the energy and low‑carbon sectors, state ambition also varies widely. Some states have legislated for aggressive renewable energy and emissions‑reduction targets and offer strong long‑term opportunities while others impose more stringent permitting, environmental compliance, or grid‑integration requirements. In contrast, emerging states with growing renewable portfolios may present more accessible entry points with fewer regulatory hurdles, while still offering significant medium to long‑term potential.

This report gives a framework for understanding the current situation for each State in key sectors for Scotland. Critical policy areas will need to be kept under review as they develop further in the priority states.

What should the Scottish Government do more of in delivering the conclusions of the report?

Overall, the key findings of the report and framework demonstrate that successful engagement in the US requires a state‑specific approach, informed by a detailed understanding of sector dynamics, regulatory contexts, strategic partnership opportunities and commercial realities.

Recommended next steps include:

• The findings from this plan provide a framework that the Scottish Government can use to guide the ongoing delivery of ATN activity in relation to the US. Crucially, the advancement of ATN is now improved by a more granulated and robust evidence base, ensuring that decisions are more informed, targeted, and focused on the greatest opportunities.
• This research has highlighted several gaps in market‑level data between Scotland and individual US states. Addressing these gaps will be important to build a more accurate and comprehensive picture of market‑level opportunities and monitor success.
• Building on the point above, further analysis, supported by SDI, can help align cohorts of companies to the sub-sectoral opportunities in this report, helping to triangulate the geographical and sector focused analysis provided with specific companies, based on their strengths.
• A further challenge in developing this plan has been the rapidly evolving political and regulatory environment in the US. Given the pace of change, there is a clear need for ongoing assessment of developments in trade policy and regulation to ensure that export support and promotional activity remains responsive and aligned to current conditions.
• While sub‑sector opportunities have been identified across all sectors, the timeframes in which these opportunities are likely to emerge sometimes vary. In Food and Drink, the relationship with the US is relatively well‑developed and mature, with strong recognition of Scottish heritage and identity. This established reputation enables businesses to build distinctiveness and trust more readily within the US market. In contrast, opportunities in renewables can be shaped by the dynamics of federal policy changes, which present short‑term challenges and a degree of uncertainty. As a result, growth in certain renewable sub‑sectors, such as offshore wind and green hydrogen, is expected to follow a more gradual, long‑term trajectory as the policy environment continues to evolve. Monitoring of this evolution, and honing trade promotion and support alongside developments, will help Scottish exporters take advantage of the reality of these opportunities.
• The other notable opportunity US states identified, alongside the top five priority states for each sector, demonstrate strong future potential for Scottish exporters. These states have shown signs of developing competitive strengths in key industries, with opportunities expected to materialise over the medium to long term as their sectoral capabilities mature. As such, they warrant strategic consideration when the Scottish Government assess where best for governmental engagement and for businesses to position resources, build partnerships, and develop market-entry plans.