US Export Plan

Introduction

The USA Export Plan has been developed to provide targeted, state-level insights that highlights where Scotland’s export strengths most effectively align with specific US market demands. This is delivered through robust evidence-backed deliverables including sector summaries, sector-to-state matrix, priority state profiles and recommendations. This more granular approach will enable the Scottish Government, its agencies, and delivery partners to focus their resources and engagement where they can achieve the greatest long-term impact, and for Scottish business to seize even more of the opportunities the market presents. As a strategic, evidence-based tool, the USA Export Plan is designed to support informed decision-making and unlock new opportunities for growth, helping to sustain and expand Scotland’s presence in the US market.

Advancing Scotland’s Export Strategy to the US: From A Trading Nation to the Six Point Plan

In 2019, the Scottish Government launched A Trading Nation (ATN), a ten-year strategy aimed at increasing Scotland’s exports from 20% to 25% of GDP by 2029. This growth, equivalent to approximately £3.5 billion, is projected to create 17,500 jobs and reflects the vital role of international trade in driving innovation, productivity, and economic resilience^[1].

Within ATN, the United States was identified as a top priority market, accounting for around 16% of Scotland’s global exports. Its scale and sectoral diversity are also noted, particularly in renewable energy, financial services, FinTech, food and drink, and advanced manufacturing, as a driver of significant opportunities for Scottish businesses. Over five years on since the first publication, the USA continues to be a priority market, as reaffirmed in the Trading Nation: Market Refresh (2025).

Importantly, ATN also recognised that major markets such as the United States are not uniform, and that substantial regional variation exists between states in their economic composition, consumer demand, and trading environments. This underscored the urgent need for sub-national analysis of the US market to better understand where the most significant opportunities lie for Scottish exporters – both now and in the future.

Commitment to action this was given further ratification in the Programme for Government (2025), within which the Scottish Government committed to developing a Six Point Export Plan which focuses on actions to unlock target markets, showcase Scotland to global buyers and enable more companies to participate in trade missions to both established and emerging markets. The first step in this Six Point Plan is the development of the US Export Plan to identify states offering the best markets for Scottish products.

This research delivers on that commitment. It provides an independent, data-driven, sector-specific assessment of the US Market at a state level, identifying where Scotland’s strengths most effectively align with US demand, while identifying specific trends and opportunities over the longer term. The USA Export Plan serves both a strategic and practical purpose. It will inform decision-making, support businesses to target the right areas, and strengthens the evidence base underpinning Scotland’s US Trade.

The objectives of this report, along with the ambition outlined in A Trading Nation, is underpinned by Scotland’s Vision for Trade (2021) which sets out Scotland’s strategic policy approach to international trade, linking it to wider aims for the Scottish economy, people and planet. It outlines the principles guiding trade policy, including inclusive growth, net zero, sustainability, good governance and wellbeing, adopting a strategic and holistic approach to trade policy. In relation to the US, it supports engagement that aligns with these values, particularly in sectors like clean energy and digital innovation. Guided by these principles we have endeavoured to ensure that this Plan promotes export growth that is not only profitable but also equitable and sustainable.

Scotland’s export ambitions, especially its targeted engagement with the US market, are also closely aligned with the broader UK trade strategy as outlined in the UK Trade Strategy (2025). The UK Trade Strategy sets out a renewed approach to international commerce, emphasising agile partnerships, sectoral growth, and targeted support for exporters across the four nations. Both UK and Scottish strategies share a commitment to evidence-based market prioritisation, enhanced business support, and leveraging international networks to unlock trade opportunities.

Why the USA?

Trading with the United States presents a highly attractive and beneficial opportunity for Scotland due to the scale, diversity, and openness of the US market. The US remains the single largest destination for Scottish exports outside the European Union, and therefore action to maintain and grow market share while recognising the changing dynamics of US export opportunities is an important focus for the Scottish Government and the Scottish economy^[2].

The United States is the largest economy in the world according to nominal Gross Domestic Product (which measures goods and services production), reaching $30.51 trillion in 2025^[3]. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty and the impact of tariffs, the economy continues to show notable resilience, with GDP rising by an annualised rate of 3.8% in the period from April through June - up from the previous estimate of 3.3%^[4].

The United States and Scotland also share common sectoral priorities, with both economies placing strong emphasis on innovation-led industries. Key areas of focus include technology and digital services, life sciences, renewable energy, food and drink, and advanced manufacturing. These sectors are central to Scotland’s export strategy and closely align with US market demand and investment trends.

In addition, there is already significant collaboration between the two countries. Scotland’s trade and inward investment agency, SDI actively supports this collaborative relationship through its four offices across the United States, providing on-the-ground support to Scottish exporters. This includes assistance with market entry, participation in trade shows, and direct engagement with US buyers - helping to secure more international trade and investment and unlock new opportunities. On a State level, several Memorandum of Understanding (MOUs) on trade and economic co-operation exist between the UK and individual states in the US^[5]. Whilst each MOU is tailored to the specific context of each state, they collectively outline mutual goals and activities to strengthen economic ties and include frameworks to address trade barriers, increase trade and investment and enhance business networks and grow and increase jobs.

Given this context, trading with the US presents a significant opportunity for Scotland, underpinned by relatively low regulatory barriers, a shared language, and a strong legal and institutional framework. These factors make market entry and business operations more straightforward compared to many other international markets. This is evidenced in official statistics which shows that in the year ending June 2025, international good exports from Scotland to the US were valued at £4.4bn (in current prices), accounting for around 20% of the value of Scotland total goods exports.^[6] This made the US Scotland’s second biggest international trading partner, behind the EU. In terms of trade in services, export statistics from Export Statistics Scotland (ESS) show that in 2023, Scotland exported £3.5bn in services to the US. In fact, Scotland’s top exporting sector to the US is Financial and Business services (24.6%), followed by Food and Drink (20%), Engineering and Advanced Manufacturing (18.4%) (ESS, 2023).

However, the sheer scale and diversity of the USA market can lead to unique challenges. Crucially, it is not a single national market but a federal system, where each state operates as a distinct regulatory entity with its own laws, standards, and enforcement mechanisms. This means that Scottish exporters must navigate a patchwork of state-level requirements, which can vary significantly across sectors and regions. That’s why the findings in this report are so important, it provides a state-by-state analysis to help the Scottish Government and businesses understand where the greatest opportunities lie, and where potential barriers may need to be addressed.

The evolving trade and regulatory environment

While this export plan is grounded in a long-term strategic view of Scotland’s international trade opportunities with the US, it is essential to also consider the evolving trade and regulatory landscape, which presents both risks and emerging opportunities. Scotland’s ability to export to the United States is increasingly shaped by a complex mix of geopolitical dynamics, trade policy shifts and regulatory challenges.

In 2025 several significant changes, including the ‘reciprocal tariff’ and removal of de minimis rules, have created uncertainty for businesses, affecting strategic planning and contributing to higher costs. Against this backdrop, the UK and US announced the General Terms of the Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD) on 8 May 2025, with elements implemented by US Executive Order on 16 June. While the General Terms are not legally binding, they set out measures to enhance market access including the removal of tariff from certain UK aerospace goods, tariff reductions on UK automative exports and structured negotiations on pharmaceuticals, steel, and aluminium, with tariff-rate quotas and supply chain security conditions.

These developments signal the continued evolution of the US trading landscape and highlight the importance of this report in providing a long-term perspective on export opportunities. Despite federal-level volatility, the structural demand for high quality goods and innovative services in the US remains robust. Scotland’s targeted export strategies, sectoral strengths, and international reputation position it to capitalise on long-term US market opportunities.

Methodology

This Plan is underpinned by robust analytical data, drawing from a wide range of data sources and supplemented by desk-based research covering more than 50 reports. A critical component of the development process has been regular engagement and consultation with key stakeholders, creating a feedback loop that ensures the final report reflects real-time market intelligence and on-the-ground insight. In total we consulted with 40 stakeholders including Scottish Government trade officials, Scottish Development International (SDI) staff based in the US, and relevant Trade Envoys and GlobalScots (see Appendix A for list of stakeholder organisations). In addition to these one-to-one consultations, roundtables with sector specialists were conducted to test the findings and ensure our findings reflect what’s happening on the ground.

This collaborative approach has helped ground the study in practical realities and emerging opportunities, ensuring it is not purely theoretical but informed by lived experience and current market dynamics.

The remaining report brings together this evidence into four key components:

Sector Reports: Provides detailed analysis and commentary for each of the eight priority sectors. The evidence feeding into these have been drawn from stakeholder consultation, desk-based research, data analysis and the Matrix model. Each sector report includes an overview of the sector’s economic contribution within Scotland, long-term trends, market competition and the comparative positioning of Scotland’s sectors against international peers. It also draws out market trends in the USA; significant issues around regulation, competition, and market entry in that sector; and an identification of at least five US states where opportunities in that sector appear most promising for Scotland.

Due to the detailed nature of these sector reports, we have provided them as separate stand-alone reports that can be provided on request. Within this report we provide a concise one-page summary of each sector report – that draws out key findings and highlights the top five priority states identified through the matrix, as well we some emerging/more niche opportunity states.

Sector-to-State Matrix: Drawing on over 100 KPIs and using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), this visual matrix maps Scotland’s priority export sectors against US states, highlighting where the best overall fits exist between Scottish strengths and state-level opportunities. This results in a shortlist of five US states per sector that are top priorities for Scotland. This has been stress tested in a collaborative scoring workshop with key stakeholders to ensure that the short list is robust and grounded in the practical insights. Alongside this, sensitivity analysis was carried out to rest the robustness of the results again changes in weights of scoring criteria.

The matrix is in an excel tool and the Scottish Government can access and continue to use into the future. Within this report we have provide a visual summary.

Priority state profiles: Provides detailed overviews of each of the top five priority states overall including key information on the state’s economic landscape, regulatory environment and the specific sectors or areas of export opportunity for Scotland in that state. They also identify state‑specific barriers and risks that Scottish exporters should be aware of, along with other relevant considerations such as international agreements or MoUs with the UK (where applicable) and industry engagement events of interest to Scottish businesses.

Recommendations: Provides robust and actionable recommendations for Scottish Government, within the executive summary, that are practical, targeted and aligned with the needs of Scottish exporters, with a focus on facilitating market entry and long-term growth.