Cereal and oilseed rape harvest: final estimates - 2021

Initial estimates are generally good predictors of final results

We are continuing to investigate ways to improve the accuracy of our first estimates, incorporating forecasting techniques to complement information from industry experts.

Initial estimates of the cereal harvest are published in October. They are based on advice from industry experts on expected yields. We combine this with census results for the areas grown to estimate the total amount of production.

Data collected on areas grown is very good. However, first and final yield estimates can vary as more information is collected once the harvest has been completed

Final estimates are based on the Cereal Production Survey (CPS) which provides a far richer data source.

In 2020 the CPS was temporarily stopped. Final estimates were based on a similar method to the first estimate.

The Cereal Production Survey was restarted in 2021 and the results in this publication are derived from it. Care should be taken in comparing to the final 2020 result which was estimated using a different methodology.