Cereal and oilseed rape harvest - first estimates: 2021

Initial estimates of area, yield and production for winter and spring barley, wheat, oats and oilseed rape, for the 2021 harvest.


Industry experts predict another good year for cereal production. With total cereal production expected to be around 3.1 million tonnes: above the five year average. Better weather may also reduce the need for drying crops.

There are reports cereals were less affected by adverse weather than in the previous year. Winter crop planting areas have also recovered in 2020. However, the expert panel reported farmers are still noticing varying crop yields.

The final estimates from the annual survey will be published in December.

How first estimates are calculated

Our annual harvest first estimates are based on advice from industry experts on expected yields. We combine this with census results for the areas grown to estimate the total amount of production.

First estimates monitor cereal production

This data provides an early indicator of harvest problems.

First estimates are fairly accurate

The data collected on areas grown is very good. However, differences in the first and final yield estimates can vary as more information is collected once the harvest has been completed.


Email: Jay.Gillam@gov.scot

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